11 Takeaways from Cavs 126-104 Game 3 loss to Raptors: Is it time for Cavaliers to panic?

Anything bought from the links helps support *Fear the Sword*. You can buy the *Let ‘Em Know* shirt HERE. You can also shop all of Homage’s Cavs gear HERE. Harden went 3-10, and it was much the same story. Toronto went under on screens to cut off the drives to the hoop that were so effective in the first two games of the series. Collapsing the paint this aggressively lends itself to open catch-and-shoot threes as well. Some made the most of those opportunities, like Max Strus (4-8) and Jaylon Tyson (3-6). Others couldn’t, such as Dean Wade (1-4) and Evan Mobley (0-4). As a team, the Cavs went 14-45 from three (31.1%). Those looks accounted for 50% of their shots (94th percentile). While it’s easy to say the Cavs should’ve gone inside more, they’re a good three-point shooting team. If you’re going to get that many open looks for your best players, you simply need to knock them down. It’s a make-or-miss league, and the Cavs missed. **The Raptors were the opposite**. They didn’t generate many threes, but they knocked down the ones they took. They also hit 14 triples, but needed 21 fewer attempts to hit that number as they converted 61% of their looks. This included RJ Barrett going 6-8 and Jamison Battle connecting all four of his looks. **One of Toronto’s biggest disadvantages is the fact that their offense comes from much less efficient places on the floor**. The three best spots to score from are at the rim, the free-throw line, and from three. The Raptors were an efficient offense in Game 3, but in a somewhat roundabout way. Toronto converted just 50% of their looks at the rim (5th percentile), had a free-throw rate in the 17th percentile, and took less than a quarter of their shots from three (2nd percentile). However, that didn’t matter because of how well they shot from three, and the fact that they connected on 62.5% of their midrange shots (96th percentile). Once again, the Cavs kept the Raptors from really hurting them in transition, despite how many turnovers they committed. Toronto was in the second percentile for points added in transition and had just nine fast-break points. That’s impressive given how much the Raptors emphasize playing fast. The Cavs’ defense wasn’t perfect. The looks they gave up from deep were clean, and they overall didn’t play with the sense of urgency you’d like to see. At the same time, the Raptors executed a very difficult game plan to absolute perfection. **Cleveland’s rotations should be shrunk**. The minutes distribution feels off. Tyson played well and provided exactly what the Cavs needed physically in this matchup, but was limited to less than 16 minutes. There’s no excuse for that happening, especially given how this hasn’t been a favorable matchup for either Dennis Schroder or Keon Ellis. It’s time for Atkinson to go away from the 10-man rotation. **The Cavs’ lack of fight in the fourth quarter was a problem**. Letting go of the rope while up 2-0 in the first road game of a series isn’t exactly something new. Teams that we consider good and mentally tough can do so. We even saw the Indiana Pacers — a team that never let go of the rope last season — do so at home when they had a 2-0 lead on the Cavs last spring. At the same time, the Cavs haven’t earned the benefit of the doubt. They’ve consistently shown a lack of fight when things get difficult in the playoffs. That cropped up again as they completely folded in the fourth quarter after continually battling back through the first three quarters to make it a two-point game heading into the final frame. **That said, there isn’t a reason to panic for the Cavs, at least not yet**. Any playoff loss is a cause for concern to some degree. The Cavs have been upset too many times in the Mitchell era to take anything for granted. But there’s not a lot from this game that feels repeatable from Toronto’s perspective. The margin for error is considerably smaller for a team that plays the way Toronto does. Where they get their offense from puts them at a disadvantage. If they can’t get out in transition — like the Cavs have kept them from doing — they need to rely on hitting inefficient midrange shots and canning a good portion of the limited threes they take. As an example, Toronto scored 18 more points from three than they would have if they shot their season-long average from three. That was more than the margin of victory (which speaks to how poorly things went in the fourth quarter), but also shows how much of an outlier this performance was. Can you reasonably rely on making that many jumpers in three of the next four games? On the other end, Toronto had the right game plan defensively. You can’t let the Cavs have their cake and eat it too. Preventing Mitchell and Harden from wreaking havoc inside is a win, and it speaks to how well Toronto’s defense was. That said, you can’t take everything away. The Cavs missed so many open three-point looks and turned it over an uncharacteristic amount. It feels like at least one of those things would need to continue if the Raptors are going to steal this. Anything can happen in a short series. Trends that wouldn’t last over 82 games can produce unexpected results in a seven-game sample. So yes, maybe this is a formula that Toronto can use to win three of the next four games. But I’ll need to see it work out again before putting my faith in it.