2 Bundesliga: The Battle To Follow Schalke Is On, And Who Can Avoid The Drop?

2 Bundesliga: The Battle To Follow Schalke Is On, And Who Can Avoid The Drop?

With two match day remaining, three clubs still harbour realistic hopes of winning promotion to the Bundesliga in May.

Each club vying for the coveted second place and promotion play-off spot represents something different—not only for their fans, but for German football as a whole.

Meanwhile, at the opposite end of the table, the relegation race hasn’t been this open in years, with six teams fighting to secure another season in the second tier.

The contenders

In second place sit Paderborn, the East Westphalians have taken an erratic route to contention. After a slow start, they surged up the table with an eight-game winning streak that lifted them to the top in November.

However, three consecutive defeats halted their momentum, dropping them out of the top two—a position they only reclaimed on Matchday 24. Since their last Bundesliga appearance in the disrupted 2019/20 campaign, they’ve rarely mounted a sustained promotion push, aside from last season’s near miss.

In third place, with a superior goal difference to all except promoted side Schalke, and Elversberg, is Hannover 96.

After a major overhaul both on and off the pitch, including the appointment of Christian Titz, the two-time German champions have found renewed direction. For the first time since their relegation in 2019, they’re firmly in the promotion conversation.

In fourth place are Elversberg, who have defied expectations once again.

Despite losing long-time head coach Horst Steffen to Werder Bremen last summer, they remain in the promotion race. After falling short in last season’s relegation play-off against Heidenheim, securing promotion this time would rank among the most remarkable underdog stories in German football history.

The run-in

The run-in features crucial head-to-head encounters. The margins are razor-thin—just two points separate the contenders after 31 matches. This race is going down to the wire.

Hannover must navigate three clashes against fellow contenders, while both Paderborn and Elversberg face all three—a demanding schedule that could decide the promotion race.

Among the blockbuster fixtures is a duel between two of the top promotion prospects, Elversberg and Paderborn, in the Sunday lunchtime slot. Meanwhile, Hannover 96 can all but relegate Preußen Münster at the Niedersachsenstadion.

On the penultimate match day, leading title contenders Paderborn travel to Karlsruhe’s Wildparkstadion, while Hannover 96 head to the Ruhrstadion to face Uwe Rösler’s Bochum.

Meanwhile, SVE are on the road against a Fortuna Düsseldorf side fighting desperately for ‘Klassenerhalt’ and another season in the second tier.

On the final day, when so much could be decided, three of the four teams currently occupying the top slots will enjoy home advantage.

The unlucky ones? Paderborn, who face a trip to Darmstadt on Matchday 34.

What would a promotion mean

For Elversberg, the plucky underdogs from Saarland, promotion would mean reaching the Bundesliga for the first time in club history. Building on the foundations laid by Horst Steffen, Vincent Wagner has continued the excellent work that’s driven two seasons of sustained overachievement.

Paderborn have sampled Bundesliga football in recent years but never truly made the impact they’d hoped for. Should they secure promotion, the aim will be to establish themselves more convincingly at the top level.

Hannover enjoyed a 14-year Bundesliga spell between 2002 and 2016 and, after an impressive fourth-place finish in 2011, even experienced European football in consecutive seasons.

Those heights feel distant now, but with the right foundations in place, Christian Titz’s side appears well-equipped to mount a serious challenge for the top flight.

The relegation run-in

At the other end of the table, the relegation run-in features any one of the bottom six teams—just like in 23/24.

Newly promoted in 24/25, Dynamo Dresden—8-time Meister of the Oberliga, the former East German league—face a brutal run of fixtures as they fight to stay in the second tier.

On the penultimate match day, the Gelb-Schwarzen travel to the Eintracht Stadion to face the 1966 Deutsche Meister in a must-win for both sides seeking to avoid the drop.

They then close out the campaign against last season’s top-flight side Holstein Kiel.

The first season up is always toughest for a promoted side, but Arminia have shown flashes of the quality that saw them shock the football world by reaching last season’s DFB Pokal final—though they’ve struggled to recapture it.

Michael Kniat’s side faces a brutal run-in that includes a visit to powerhouse Betzenberg to meet 1. FC Kaiserslautern, before concluding at home to Hertha Berlin.

Following the Dresden game, Eintracht Braunschweig joins the promotion party at the Veltins Arena.

By then, we can only hope Hainer Backhaus’s side has done enough to maintain their top-flight status.

Fortuna may have been pegged as promotion candidates in recent seasons—and in 2023, it was close against VfL Bochum in the play-offs—but the catastrophic crash from sixth place last season to the relegation zone can’t be blamed solely on firing long-term coach Daniel Thioune.

The one-time Meister faces perhaps the worst run-in, with Schalke and Elversberg in succession, although a trip to Greuther on matchday 34 should provide some consolation.

Just how much difference Christian Titz—now with promotion-chasing Hannover—made to the 1974 European Cup Winners’ Cup winners became painfully clear this season.

The East Germans’ poor form never seems to end. With Hertha Berlin at home followed by a visit to Holstein in quick succession, much depends on how the competition plays out.

The matchday 34 clash could prove decisive for these two former Oberliga clubs when Dynamo Dresden comes knocking—a fixture that could well seal one side’s relegation.

The 2021 Bundesliga promotion feels like little more than a blip for the team that holds the record for most seasons in the second tier: two-time German champions Greuther Fürth.

Another season in the top flight looks distant after a dismal 25/26 campaign. If the Kleeblätter want to beat the drop, they’ll need points against historic foes Hertha and finally Düsseldorf.

At the foot of the table, a six-point gap separates Bundesliga founding club Preußen Münster from the safety of 15th place.

The green and blacks are playing out their final games in the second tier for some time—the last two away at Hertha’s Olympiastadion, followed by a visit from Fortuna Düsseldorf.

Conclusion

The 2. Bundesliga is once again delivering a promotion race defined by fine margins.

Each of the three clubs seeking to emulate Meister Schalke 04 can take encouragement from Köln and Hamburg, both of whom have impressed since returning to the Bundesliga.

The relegation battle, in contrast, is wider than it has been for some time.

At least one former Bundesliga club will almost certainly face the third tier next season.

The final weeks promise drama, and promotion represents not just an achievement, but a genuine opportunity to thrive at the highest level.

While Paderborn and Hannover have seen recent Bundesliga action, for surprise outfit Elversberg, the top tier would be uncharted territory—an incredible feat for the Saarland-based side.

One side still has the chance of salvation through the relegation play-off against the third-place finisher from the 3. Liga.

This is a duel in which the second-tier side has prevailed in 11 of 17 ties.

Either way, relegation will force at least one club to radically rethink the coming season in Europe’s most challenging third tier.