#2 UNC Baseball will take on Duke in Durham this weekend

Looking ahead to Duke, this Blue Devils team is coming off maybe their worst result of conference play. They were never expected to be very good, thanks to their roster having been depleted by Pollard’s departure, but they had started the season being at least fun and pesky. They rank 3rd in the country in stolen bases, a stat they once led by a wide margin, and have some star power in designated hitter Kaden Smith and reliever Ben Dean, and that can give them enough to steal games in series where they’re otherwise outmatched. Until this past weekend, they had not been swept in a series yet, including game wins against N.C. State and Florida State. But Boston College managed it by beating the Blue Devils at their own game, including stealing 8 bases in an inning in their opener and eventually getting too deep into the Duke bullpen for them to handle.

Duke is hanging its hat this year on offense, hoping to get guys on base and then advance them into scoring position so they can steal runs on weak contact or fielding mistakes. As mentioned, they rank 3rd in the country in swipes, with 126 steals on 148 attempts. More than half their lineup has at least 10 steals, and they are absolutely shameless in when and what they will try to take. Opposing batteries have to be on high alert at all times. At the plate, catcher Matthew Strand is having an excellent year, which is particularly impressive when you consider that he started the season as a backup. He leads his team in home runs with 10, RBI with 34, and has the highest OPS of Duke’s regular lineup with a mark of 1.036. Smith has hit 8 long balls and has an OPS just under 1.000, and catches even more barrels than those stats would imply. First baseman Brooks Perez, left fielder Tyler Albright, and second baseman R.J. Hamilton are the big on-base threats. Perez and Albright work a lot of walks, with at least 30 apiece, and Hamilton has a knack for drawing hit-by-pitches with 11 on the season. Of course, they’re among the Blue Devils with 10+ stolen bases; Hamilton leads the team with 23.

The entire Duke offense is liable to strike out; their 385 Ks this season are the 20th-most in the country. That’s a big part of what has kept them from being consistent; they can try to compensate with their speed and okay team power, but ultimately they just don’t generate enough contact to move guys in the traditional ways and make good on the opportunities that they can generate. And their pitching and defense aren’t good enough to allow the offense to be anything less than great. Andy Leon is a decent starter who’s had some bad luck, with a 5.15 ERA belying a .213 batting average against, but that’s just one. The other rotation mainstay is Aidan Weaver, who has racked up a lot of strikeouts but also gives up a lot of hits and has an ERA north of 6, and Duke has not found a consistent 3rd starter. And in the bullpen, the aforementioned Dean is a good option, with a 3.95 ERA and 49 Ks in just 27.1 innings pitched, but there’s not much after him. Duke certainly doesn’t help its pitchers defensively; their .957 team fielding percentage is in the country’s bottom 50.

This Duke team has proven that it can cause problems for anybody, and an 8-13 record in conference is, while not good, certainly a mark of a team not to be taken lightly. But the Diamond Heels should be an echelon above them, and a series win should be the expectation. The series will start tonight, on Thursday night, at 7:00 PM. Friday’s game will be at 6:00 and Saturday’s series finale will be at 3:00.