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In a tense game, the Cubs faced a tough challenge but rallied in the ninth inning. Pete Crow-Armstrong's triple significantly boosted their chances of winning.
Holy cow. 42 years of watching baseball prepares you for so many things. So many days, you âfeelâ what is going to happen next. Obviously, I liked this matchup on paper for this game. Chase Petty has a pretty decent pedigree, but he hadnât yet established himself at the major league level. I doubt any memoirs will be written about his first 2026 start, 5.2 innings and three runs allowed. But against a Cub offense that has been terrific, four hits and two walks in just shy of six innings is a good outcome. Cub starter Edward Cabrera bested him by just one out. But he allowed the same three runs and two walks. But his outing came with nine hits. The Reds had constant traffic and save for one inning, Petty was real effective.
So it was that as this one got into the late innings and after Ben Brown yielded a run in the eighth, this one felt like it might be a loss. But then, that pesky Cub offense loaded the bases in the eighth. Maybe. Maybe they could at least tie it. But when they left the bases loaded, you could feel it deflate. And why not, really? The Reds had basically an 84 percent chance to win after the eighth inning.
I saw Ryan Rolison pitch for the first time. What an impressive performance it was. He faced three batters, struck them all out and then had some serious vibes going as he walked off the field. It will be so easy to do, but we shouldnât overlook how important it is to go lock it down in that spot. It changes the whole energy of the inning if that is a two run (or more) deficit in the bottom of the ninth. Still, this Reds team is in contention through this point in the season, basically because theyâve won literally every close game that they have played. This was a tall task. Even after Rolison froze that lead at one, the Cubs still had only a 19.5 percent chance of winning heading to the bottom of the ninth.
The data I saw said that the ball Pete Crow-Armstrong hit to start the ninth inning would have been a homer in 17 parks. Credit for Pete for busting it out of the box and getting a relatively easy triple after the ball dropped against the wall. The biggest drama there was him holding on to the base after a full speed slide into third. Additional kudos for Pete coming through after two quick strikes on him. After his triple, the Cubs jumped all of the way up to 58.3 percent chance of winning. That was about as big of a WPA play as weâve seen. At least for a few more batters.
Then Dansby Swanson struck out. That dropped the Cubs back down to a 40.9 percent chance of winning. Outs are SO valuable. So valuable, in fact, that when Nico Hoerner hit the decently deep fly ball that Iâm sure most of us expected, the chance of winning only bounced up to 53.4 percent. A tie game with two outs in the ninth is largely a coin flip.
You had to expect Michael Conforto to get to bat for Matt Shaw in that spot. What I would never have guessed is that Michael Conforto, in what has been a pretty decent career, had never hit a walk-off homer. His 180th career homer isnât an insane number to never have one. With a career that has seen him go from the Mets to the Giants to the Dodgers (and now the Cubs), it feels like heâs been around some good teams. In a season of amazing things, Michaelâs first ever walk-off homer is also his first homer for the Cubs. He crushed it, too. There wasnât a lot of drama in it getting out. Iâm fully aware of the late career bench players the Cubs have had in recent years. I also know that at 32 years old, he wasnât very valuable for the Dodgers and wasnât playing by the time they reached the postseason (despite 122 games started for them).
From Cabreraâs quality start, to Seiya Suzukiâs monstrous three-run, game-tying homer, to Rolisonâs dominant inning, to PCAâs triple, to Nicoâs sacrifice fly to Confortoâs walk-off, this one was thrilling throughout. It feels like the term âplayoff baseballâ maybe gets thrown around too easily. But, this felt like a big game for May 4. Every one of those contributions I mentioned above and several others that helped set the stage contributed to an exciting and fulfilling game.
Six straight wins. 12 straight wins at home. 16 of 19 overall. This team is blazing hot. In the division that has been the best one in baseball so far, the Cubs are creating a little space in the standings. What a time to be alive!
Three Positives:
The Cubs ended up with six hits and six walks. Thatâs a pretty good performance by the Reds pitching staff.
Game 35, May 4: Cubs 5, Reds 4 (23-12)
WPA Graph
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
THREE GOATS:
WPA Play of the Game:Â Michael Confortoâs walk-off, game-winning homer. (.466)
*Reds Play of the Game: KeâBryan Hayes hir a two-out, two-run home in the second gave the Reds a three-run lead. (.199)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 34 Winner: Michael Bush received 43% of the votes (94 votes)
Rizzo Award Standings:(Top 3/Bottom 3)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
**Current Win Pace:**106.45
Up Next:Â Game two of the four-game set between these two teams. Jameson Taillon (2-1, 4.41, 34.2 IP) makes his seventh start of the season. Last time he allowed three runs over seven innings of work, allowing only three hits and one walk at San Diego. The Reds start 26-year-old Andrew Abbott (1-2, 5.97, 34.2 IP) who will be making his eighth start of the season. Abbott was the second round pick of the Reds in 2021 (53rd overall). The Cubs are only 5-5 when the other team starts a lefty but 18-7 when they start a righty.
Bringing back a discussion that ran through much of last season, the Cubs actually have a pretty considerable lead on best OPS versus lefties at .830. They have an .037 lead on the Dodgers. That same gap again would drop down to ninth. So the Cubs have separated from the pack that way. They are .056 behind the Braves against righties (.761). This same exact phenomenon existed all of last year. The Cubs hit lefties well, but donât end up winning for whatever variety of reasons.
13 in a row at home would be an amazing feat. I donât know about you, but Iâm just fine if they want to keep on going.
Go Cubs!
Chase Petty pitched 5.2 innings, allowing three runs, four hits, and two walks.
The Cubs loaded the bases in the eighth inning but failed to score, leading to a deflated atmosphere as they faced a potential loss.
Pete Crow-Armstrong's triple in the ninth inning increased the Cubs' chances of winning to 58.3 percent.
Ryan Rolison was impressive, striking out all three batters he faced in a crucial moment of the game.
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