2026 Fantasy Football Busts 1.0: Avoid Patrick Mahomes, A.J. Brown, and Trey McBride in the early rounds

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Generally, in my busts column, I like to make the point early and often that my calling someone a bust does not mean I think they are bad at football. If you are in the NFL you are definitely good at football. If you are being drafted high enough to be called a bust, you just may be great at football. Of course, in mid-May, we don't know exactly where ADP will settle by August, so this may be better titled 'Potential Busts' or 'Guys I think everyone is going to draft too high'. Not quite as catchy as Busts 1.0, is it?

Certainly, the most controversial name on my early bust list is Trey McBride. McBride lapped the field at tight end last year and was arguably worth a Round 1 pick based on his production. Of course, you don't get credit in 2026 for 2025 production. And I would argue that McBride's situation has changed enough that you should not count on similar production.

The two most obvious changes in Arizona are a new coaching staff and the team's selection of Jeremiyah Love at third overall. The latter makes it likely the Cardinals run more and throw less; the former makes it likely that McBride's target share falls. Both were outliers last year.

Arizona's 649 pass attempts in 2025 were the most in the NFL. A lot of that was due to game scripts in the second half of the season. They lost their last nine games, and six of those nine losses were by at least three scores. The Cardinals may still be behind a lot in 2026, but it is unlikely they face as many big deficits. When they do pass, I would not expect them to target McBride as often as they have the past three seasons.

As I wrote about in Breakouts 1.0, Drew Petzing ran one of the most tight-end-friendly offenses in the league the past three seasons, with 27% of the team's targets going to tight ends. The Cardinals' new head coach, Mike LaFleur, has run Sean McVay's offense the past three seasons, with 18% of targets going to tight ends. Two rebuttals to this argument are true. One, they didn't have Trey McBride in Los Angeles. Two, the changed gears last year, and threw 25% of their passes to the tight end. But they also led the league in three tight end sets and spread those targets around.