Renegade is the 2026 Kentucky Derby favorite at 4-1 odds, but history suggests a challenge as no horse from the Sam F. Davis Stakes has ever won the Derby. Other contenders include Commandment and Further Ado, both at 6-1 odds.
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Renegade (4-1) is the 2026 Kentucky Derby favorite, but he'll have to defy history to prevail at The Run for the Roses. The horse competed at the Sam F. Davis Stakes in February -- and won the race -- but that prep event has never produced a Kentucky Derby winner. There have been 31 horses that ran in the Davis Stakes who then were Kentucky Derby starters, and they are 0 for 31, with just three of them even finishing in the money. The Puma also competed in the Davis, finishing third, and he's at 10-1 in the Kentucky Derby 2026 odds. Bet the Kentucky Derby with the exclusiveTwinSpires offer codeCBSSPORTS to receive up to $400 in bonus bets here, double what's available to the general public:
How much should that history affect your Kentucky Derby betting strategy? Other top horses, according to the latest Kentucky Derby 2026 odds, are Commandment (6-1) and Further Ado (6-1). The race takes place on Saturday, with a 6:57 p.m. ET post time from Churchill Downs. Before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions and best bets from SportsLine's elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 12 times in the last 17 years. He also predicted the top three 2025 Kentucky Derby finishers in the correct order, helping him cash a $1,682 superfecta, and called the exacta in last year's Preakness. Anyone who has followed him on horse racing betting sites could be way up.
Now, with the 2026 Kentucky Derby approaching and horse racing futures odds on the board, Demling is sharing his 2026 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. .
Renegade is the favorite at 4-1, followed by Commandment and Further Ado, both at 6-1.
No horse that competed in the Sam F. Davis Stakes has ever won the Kentucky Derby, with 31 horses failing to finish in the money.
Jody Demling is a horse racing expert known for accurately predicting the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 12 times in 17 years, and he offers insights for the 2026 Derby.
The 2026 Kentucky Derby is set to take place on Saturday at 6:57 p.m. ET from Churchill Downs.
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One of Demling's surprising 2026 Kentucky Derby picks: Demling is fading Renegade, the morning-line favorite at 4-1, saying, "He was my original pick, but there are just too many things going against him." The post-position draw is one of those things that went against Renegade as he'll start on the rail. It's been 40 years since a horse drew the No. 1 post and won the Kentucky Derby, and it's nearly been a decade since a horse from the inside post even finished in the money.
Also not necessarily in the horse's favor is his jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. While he's a five-time winner of the Outstanding Jockey award, Ortiz is a zero-time winner at the Kentucky Derby. He's 0 for 9 at The Run for the Roses, never even finishing in the money. Even when riding the 4-1 favorite, Improbable, at the 2019 Derby, Ortiz could only muster a fourth-place finish, which was originally a fifth place before a horse DQ'ed. See who to back at SportsLine.
Another stunner: Demling is high on The Puma at 10-1. Amongst the top three favorites in Renegade, Commandment and Further Ado, there's just one horse in the 2026 Derby field that defeated any of them in a race, and that horse is The Puma. He defeated Further Ado in the Tampa Bay Derby, which remains the latter's only defeat over the last eight months. The Puma also has pristine pedigree as the son of Essential Quality, who was both the 2-year-old and 3-year-old American champion.
Also in The Puma's favor are his connections, which include trainer Gustavo Delgado, jockey Javier Castellano and ownership group OGMA Investments. If those names sound familiar, that's because they all teamed up to win the 2023 Derby with Mage, a 15-1 longshot. The Puma checks all of the boxes one should seek when making Kentucky Derby bets as he shouldn't be overlooked for Churchill Downs. See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can sign up for FanDuel Racing for the Kentucky Derby here and get $25 in bonus bets with a $5 wager:
Demling is also high on a stunning longshot who "could be a freak." Anyone who backs this sleeper pick could hit it big. Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2026 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2026, and which stunning longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2026 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 12 Derby-Oaks doubles.
| Post | Horse | Odds | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renegade | 4-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 2 | Albus | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 3 | Intrepido | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 4 | Litmas Test | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 5 | Right to Party | 30-1 | SCR |
| 6 | Commandment | 6-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 7 | Danon Bourbon | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 8 | So Happy | 15-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 9 | The Puma | 10-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 10 | Wonder Dean | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 11 | Incredibolt | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 12 | Chief Wallabee | 8-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 13 | Silent Tactic | 20-1 | SCR |
| 14 | Potente | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 15 | Emerging Market | 15-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 16 | Pavlovian | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 17 | Six Speed | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 18 | Further Ado | 6-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 19 | Golden Tempo | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 20 | Fulleffort | 20-1 | SCR |
| 21 | Great White | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 22 | Ocelli | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 23 | Robusta | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |