2026 Kentucky Derby picks, odds, predictions, favorites: Best bets by expert who had $1,045 payout last year

Last year Menez put his handicapping skills up against the best horseplayers and finished 115th out of 643 entries in the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge, the biggest live-money handicapping tournament in the country.

Now, Menez has handicapped the 2026 Kentucky Derby field and revealed his picks. Go here to see them.

Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions

One of Menez's surprising 2026 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Renegade (4-1) even though he's the favorite. Renegade has come on of late, winning each of his last two races. At the 2026 Arkansas Derby on March 28, he won at the 1 1/8-mile Oaklawn Park dirt track in 1:49.7. He also won the 2026 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs in February. Prior to that, however, he finished second twice, including at the 2025 Remsen at the 1 1/8-mile Aqueduct Racetrack in Queens, N.Y., in December.

Veteran Todd A. Pletcher trains Renegade, but the 58-year-old has not had a Derby winner since 2017. That's when Always Dreaming won by 2 3/4 lengths on a wet but fast track. Although Pletcher has over 5,700 wins, his only other Derby win was in 2010. "As a late-running closer, he will be at the mercy of a fair pace and a clean trip and is in danger of losing massive ground if he tries to pass horses on the outside on the far turn," Menez said. See who to back at SportsLine.

Another stunner: Menez is high on Chief Wallabee, even though he's not one of the top-three favorites at 8-1. "If the blinkers make even a little bit of difference, then Chief Wallabee is a major player considering there's not much difference between him and, say, Commandment," he said. Menez is using Chief Wallabee prominently in his wagers.

Chief Wallabee is trained by William Mott. The 72-year-old has over 5,400 career wins, including the 2019 and 2025 Kentucky Derby. At last year's Derby, his horse Sovereignty won by 1 1/2 lengths on a sloppy track. Chief Wallabee enters the Derby with one win in three career races. See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks at TwinSpires here with the offer code CBSSPORTS:

How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, bets

Menez's top pick is a horse who was "the big winner of the post draw." He also is high on a double-digit longshot who is the "best value in the race." Menez is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2026 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.

Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2026, and which longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2026 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Menez's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who had a $1,045 payout at last year's race.

2026 Kentucky Derby odds