2026 Kentucky Derby picks, odds, predictions, favorites: Best bets from expert who had $1,045 win last year

Menez excels on horse racing's biggest days. In 2024 he crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders' Cup Saturday for a $5,303 windfall. Last year he nailed the winner, trifecta and superfecta in the Florida Derby for a $529.60 score and the winner and trifecta in the Blue Grass Stakes for a $761.96 jackpot. He hit the late Pick 4 on Kentucky Oaks day for $915.48. In the Kentucky Derby, he hammered the exacta and trifecta for a $1,045 payout. And earlier this year, on Fountain of Youth day, he struck big, hitting the late Pick 5 for $4,648.

Last year Menez put his handicapping skills up against the best horseplayers and finished 115th out of 643 entries in the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge, the biggest live-money handicapping tournament in the country.

Now, Menez has handicapped the 2026 Kentucky Derby field and revealed his picks. Go here to see them.

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Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions

One of Menez's surprising 2026 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Renegade (4-1), even though he's the morning-line favorite. The Todd A. Pletcher-trained colt earned his status as the favorite following wins at the Arkansas Derby and the Sam F. Davis Stakes this year. Renegade, however, also lost two races to Paladin earlier in the year before Paladin was injured and removed from Kentucky Derby consideration.

It's a fairly tight list of favorites with six horses at 15-1 or lower on the morning line. Menez is concerned that Renegade is a late-running closer and will need a clean trip, and could drop ground if he tries to pass horses outside late in the race. See who to back at SportsLine.

Another stunner: Menez is high on Chief Wallabee, even though he's not one of the top-three favorites at 8-1. After not racing as a juvenile, the horse has finished in the money in all three starts this year. He placed third at the G1 Florida Derby, but Chief Wallabee has potential for even more as trainer Bill Mott is putting blinkers on him for the Kentucky Derby. "If the blinkers make even a little bit of difference, then Chief Wallabee is a major player considering there's not much difference between him and, say, Commandment," Menez told SportsLine.

Mott clearly knows what he's doing as he won his second Kentucky Derby last year with Sovereignty, also winning in 2019 with Country Horse. Junior Alvarado rode Sovereignty to victory, and the Mott-Alvarado duo is back again with Chief Wallabee. Add in that both the horse's sire and damsire were G1 winners, and Chief Wallabee has everything you want in a Kentucky Derby longshot. See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks at TwinSpires here with the offer code CBSSPORTS:

How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, bets

Menez's top pick is a horse who was "the big winner of the post draw." He also is high on a double-digit longshot who is the "best value in the race." Menez is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2026 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.

Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2026, and which longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2026 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Menez's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who had a $1,045 payout at last year's race.

2026 Kentucky Derby odds