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2026 Kentucky Derby predictions, horses, odds, date, post positions: Surprising picks by horse racing expert
TL;DR
The 2026 Kentucky Derby is set for May 2 at Churchill Downs, with Renegade as the favorite at 4-1 odds. Other top contenders include Further Ado and Commandment at 6-1, and Chief Wallabee at 8-1.
Key points
- 2026 Kentucky Derby on May 2 at Churchill Downs
- Renegade is the betting favorite at 4-1 odds
- Further Ado and Commandment are both 6-1
- Chief Wallabee is at 8-1 and The Puma at 10-1
- No Triple Crown winner since Justify in 2018
Mentioned in this story
Irad Ortiz Jr.Todd PletcherMichelle Yu
Kentucky Derby
Imagn Images
The 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby will take place on Saturday, May 2, at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky. The post time of 6:57 p.m. ET and Renegade, steered by Irad Ortiz Jr. and trained by Todd Pletcher is the betting favorite at 4-1 in the 2026 Kentucky Derby odds. Further Ado and Commandment are both priced slightly behind Renegade at 6-1, while Chief Wallabee (8-1) and The Puma (10-1) round out the top contenders at the Kentucky Derby 2026. Junior Alvarado and Bill Mott, the winning jockey-trainer combination for the 2025 Kentucky Derby with Sovereignty, are teaming up again in 2026 with Chief Wallabee.
There has not been a Triple Crown winner since Justify accomplished the feat in 2018 but the winner of Saturday's Derby will take the spotlight in hopes of making history in 2026. Before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, you'll want to see what racing reporter and analyst Michelle Yu has to say before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby bets.
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In a wide-open Kentucky Derby in 2021, Yu gave out Medina Spirit, who crossed the finish line first, as the winner at 12-1. In Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager three years ago, she suggested a play on All Other 3-Year-Olds, which cashed at a whopping 18-1 when Rich Strike won.
She started off 2025 by correctly going all-in on Citizen Bull to win the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, and she also predicted Forever Young's win in the Saudi Cup, Journalism's win in the San Felipe Stakes, Sandman's win in the Arkansas Derby and Mindframe's win in the Churchill Downs Stakes. She also hit the exacta in the Kentucky Derby. In August she hit the Fierceness-Journalism exacta in the Pacific Classic, and in March 2026 she nailed the Renegade-Silent Tactic-Taptastic trifecta in the Arkansas Derby. Anyone who has followed her on those picks on betting sites like , and could be up huge.
Q&A
What are the odds for the top horses in the 2026 Kentucky Derby?
Renegade is the favorite at 4-1, followed by Further Ado and Commandment at 6-1, Chief Wallabee at 8-1, and The Puma at 10-1.
When is the 2026 Kentucky Derby and where is it held?
The 2026 Kentucky Derby will take place on Saturday, May 2, at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.
Who are the jockey and trainer for the favorite horse Renegade?
Renegade is steered by jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. and trained by Todd Pletcher.
Has there been a Triple Crown winner since Justify?
No, there has not been a Triple Crown winner since Justify achieved the feat in 2018.
