2026 Kentucky Derby predictions, horses, odds, date: Surprising picks from horse racing expert

Now, with the 2026 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Yu is sharing her 2026 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.

Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions

One surprise: Yu is completely fading Commandment (6-1), even though he won the Florida Derby and is one of the top favorites. The Cox-trained colt has lost some speed in recent races, and while Yu was impressed by the horse's run at Gulfstream Park, she isn't confident in him on the 1¼ mile run at Churchill Downs. "I don't like that his win margins have diminished as the races have gotten longer," Yu tells SportsLine. Cox is 1-12 in the Run for the Roses, winning his only Derby by disqualification when Medina Spirit failed post-race testing.

Jockey Luis Saez will be aboard Commandment for his 13th run at glory, and the Panamanian rider has yet to win the big one. He has won the Belmont Stakes twice but has never been in the top two in the Kentucky Derby, with his best official finish being third on Essential Quality in 2021, the same year the horse won the Belmont. Saez did cross the line first at the 2019 Kentucky Derby aboard Maximum Security but was disqualified for interference. See which other 2026 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.

Another curveball: Yu is high on The Puma as a 10-1 longshot who drew the No. 9 post. The Gustavo Delgado-trained colt has finished in the top three in all four races he's run since his maiden in January. That includes a victory at the Tampa Bay Derby on March 7. He then was edged by a nose by fellow Kentucky Derby contender Commandment in the Florida Derby on March 28. "He did everything but win the Florida Derby when Commandment nosed him out, but he has been super consistent," Yu told SportsLine.

The Puma also has strong connections that give him a real chance to win at Churchill Downs, Yu notes. The Puma's sire, Essential Quality, had eight victories in 10 starts and finished third in the Derby before winning the Belmont Stakes in 2021. Delgado and jockey Javier Castellano won the 2023 Kentucky Derby with Mage, who was a 15-1 longshot and surged late to win by a length. "His best races put him right in the mix ...," Yu says of The Puma. "I wouldn't be surprised." See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can make 2026 Kentucky Derby futures bets at FanDuel Racing here to get $25 in bonuses with a $5 wager:

How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks

Moreover, Yu's top pick is a horse who is "screaming for more ground." She also is high on a big double-digit longshot who will be the "forgotten horse." She is including this horse in her 2026 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you. She's sharing which 2026 Kentucky Derby horses to back at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2026 Kentucky Derby? What double-digit longshot is a must-back, and how has Yu constructed her wagers? Visit SportsLine to see Yu's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the Santa Anita-based racing insider who has a long history of success in the Kentucky Derby, and find out.

2026 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions