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2026 Kentucky Derby predictions, horses, odds, date: Surprising picks via elite horse racing expert
TL;DR
The 152nd Kentucky Derby will take place on Saturday at Churchill Downs, featuring favorites like Renegade (4-1) and longshots such as Incredibolt (20-1). Expert predictions suggest potential surprises in this year's race.
Key points
- The 152nd Kentucky Derby is on Saturday at Churchill Downs.
- Renegade is the 4-1 morning-line favorite.
- Longshots include Incredibolt at 20-1 and Albus at 30-1.
- Post time is set for 6:57 p.m. ET.
- Rich Strike won as an 80-1 longshot in 2022.
Kentucky Derby 2026
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The first leg of the Triple Crown is here, with the 152nd Kentucky Derby set for Saturday at Churchill Downs, and horse racing fans and bettors always love a longshot. The most famous recent upset in the Run for the Roses came in 2022, when Rich Strike went from "also-eligible" entry who was added to the field the day before the race to winning by less than a length over Epicenter. Rich Strike was 80-1 in the Kentucky Derby odds, making him the second-biggest longshot to win the "Fastest Two Minutes in Sports" after Donerail, who won at 91-1 in 1913. This year's race features plenty of elite horses, but can a horse like Incredibolt (20-1) or Albus (30-1) pull off a shocker at Kentucky Derby 2026? Bet the Kentucky Derby with the exclusiveTwinSpires offer codeCBSSPORTS to receive up to $400 in bonus bets, double what's available to the general public:
Saturday's post time in Louisville, Ky., is set for 6:57 p.m. ET. Renegade is going off as the 4-1 morning-line favorite in the Kentucky Derby 2026 odds, followed by Further Ado (6-1) and Commandment (6-1). Chief Wallabee (8-1) and The Puma (10-1) are also top contenders in the 2026 Kentucky Derby. Before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, you'll want to see what racing reporter and analyst Michelle Yu has to say before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby bets.
In a wide-open Kentucky Derby in 2021, Yu gave out Medina Spirit, who crossed the finish line first, as the winner at 12-1. In Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager three years ago, she suggested a play on All Other 3-Year-Olds, which cashed at a whopping 18-1 when Rich Strike won.
She started off 2025 by correctly going all-in on Citizen Bull to win the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, and she also predicted Forever Young's win in the Saudi Cup, Journalism's win in the San Felipe Stakes, Sandman's win in the Arkansas Derby and Mindframe's win in the Churchill Downs Stakes. She also hit the exacta in the Kentucky Derby. In August she hit the Fierceness-Journalism exacta in the Pacific Classic, and in March 2026 she nailed the Renegade-Silent Tactic-Taptastic trifecta in the Arkansas Derby. Anyone who has followed her on those picks on betting sites like , and could be up huge.
Q&A
What are the odds for the favorites in the 2026 Kentucky Derby?
Renegade is the morning-line favorite at 4-1, followed by Further Ado and Commandment at 6-1.
Who are the longshot contenders for the 2026 Kentucky Derby?
Longshot contenders include Incredibolt at 20-1 and Albus at 30-1.
What time does the 2026 Kentucky Derby start?
The post time for the 2026 Kentucky Derby is set for 6:57 p.m. ET on Saturday.
What notable upsets have occurred in recent Kentucky Derbies?
In 2022, Rich Strike won as an 80-1 longshot, marking one of the biggest upsets in Derby history.
