The 2026 Kentucky Derby features Renegade as the 9-2 favorite and Further Ado at 5-1, with post positions significantly impacting odds. The No. 5 post has historically produced the most winners, while the 6-post has the lowest winning percentage.
Key points
Renegade is the 9-2 favorite for the 2026 Kentucky Derby
Further Ado follows at 5-1 in the odds
The No. 5 post has produced 10 Derby champions
Commandment's odds changed from 5-1 to 6-1 after drawing the 6-post
Right to Party is a 50-1 longshot despite a favorable post position
Kentucky Derby 2026
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There are many things one will consider for their 2026 Kentucky Derby picks and horse racing predictions, ranging from pedigree to connections to prep races. Post position could be another factor in who crosses the finish line first at the Kentucky Derby 2026, and just one spot can make a huge difference. The No. 5 post has produced a record 10 Derby champions, but the same fortune can't be said for the 6-post. Only 2.1% of horses to break from that spot have won, which is the second-lowest percentage of any starting post.
Perhaps, these numbers will balance out over time, and the post-position draw certainly had an effect the 2026 Kentucky Derby odds. Renegade, who drew the rail, is the 9-2 favorite, followed by Further Ado (5-1). Right to Party got the coveted No. 5 post but is still a 50-1 longshot, while Commandment drew the 6-post. That caused him to go from the second-favorite at 5-1 to now being the third-favorite at 6-1 in the latest horse racing odds. With the Kentucky Derby annually featuring the largest field in North American racing, you'll want to see what Santa Anita-based racing reporter and analyst Michelle Yu has to say before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, considering the success she's had handicapping this race.
In a wide-open Kentucky Derby in 2021, she gave out Medina Spirit, who crossed the finish line first, as the winner at 12-1. In Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager three years ago, she suggested a play on All Other 3-Year-Olds, which cashed at a whopping 18-1 when Rich Strike won.
Q&A
Who are the top favorites for the 2026 Kentucky Derby?
Renegade is the top favorite at 9-2, followed by Further Ado at 5-1.
What is the significance of post positions in the Kentucky Derby?
Post positions can greatly influence a horse's chances, with the No. 5 post historically producing the most winners.
How did the post positions affect Commandment's odds?
Commandment's odds dropped from 5-1 to 6-1 after drawing the 6-post, making him the third favorite.
What are the odds for the longshot Right to Party in the 2026 Kentucky Derby?
Right to Party, despite drawing the coveted No. 5 post, is currently a longshot at 50-1.
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She started off 2025 by correctly going all-in on Citizen Bull to win the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, and she also predicted Forever Young's win in the Saudi Cup, Journalism's win in the San Felipe Stakes, Sandman's win in the Arkansas Derby and Mindframe's win in the Churchill Downs Stakes. She also hit the exacta in the Kentucky Derby. In August she hit the Fierceness-Journalism exacta in the Pacific Classic, and in March 2026 she nailed the Renegade-Silent Tactic-Taptastic trifecta in the Arkansas Derby. Anyone who has followed her on those picks on betting sites like FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET could be up huge.
One surprise: Yu is completely fading Commandment (6-1), even though he won the Florida Derby and is one of the top favorites. That victory in Florida saw Commandment post a 122 speed figure which is actually a decrease from his prior race. Despite adding 1/16th of a mile in going from the Fountain of Youth to the Florida Derby, Commandment was slower, which isn't a promising sign with the Kentucky Derby being even longer than Florida.
Commandment will have jockey Luis Saez aboard him, which will be Saez' 13th Derby mount. However, the Panamanian doesn't have a victory, or even a runner-up, across his previous dozen rides. Saez is one of 29 jockeys with at least 12 Derby starts, but just three others have zero first or second-place finishes at The Run for the Roses. See which other 2026 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Another curveball: Yu is high on The Puma, even though he's a 10-1 longshot. "He did everything but win the Florida Derby when Commandment nosed him out, but he has been super consistent," Yu told SportsLine. "His best races put him right in the mix, and these connections have won a Derby before."
Those connections include the trainer and jockey duo of Gustavo Delgado and Javier Castellano, respectively. Together, they won the 2023 Kentucky Derby with Mage, despite him also being a double-digit longshot at 15-1. Additionally, there is some crossover between those who owned Mage and The Puma's co-owners. The Puma also has impressive a pedigree as any horse in the 2026 Kentucky Derby field as he was sired by Essential Quality, who won eight of his 10 starts en route to being both the 2-year-old and 3-year-old American champion. See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can make 2026 Kentucky Derby futures bets at TwinSpires here with the offer code CBSSPORTS:
How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks
Moreover, Yu's top pick is a horse who is "screaming for more ground." She also is high on a big double-digit longshot who will be the "forgotten horse." She is including this horse in her 2026 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you. She's sharing which 2026 Kentucky Derby horses to back at SportsLine.
