2026 Kentucky Derby predictions, horses, odds, race date: Surprising picks from elite horse racing expert

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Horse racing's Triple Crown season has arrived with the 2026 Kentucky Derby set to take place on Saturday, May 2 at 6:57 p.m. ET at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky. Renegade, the winner of the Arkansas Derby, is a 4-1 favorite in the morning-line 2026 Kentucky Derby odds, but Further Ado (6-1), Commandment (6-1), Chief Wallabee (8-1) and The Puma (10-1) are all contenders in the 20-horse field. Bob Baffert, who is looking for his historic seventh Derby win as a trainer, has two horses in the field with Potente (20-1) and Litmus Test (30-1), while last year's winning jockey-trainer tandem of Junior Alvarado and Bill Mott re-unite with Chief Wallabee. Bet the Kentucky Derby with the exclusiveTwinSpires offer codeCBSSPORTS to receive up to $400 in bonus bets, double what's available to the general public:

Whether you're looking to roll with the favorite in Renegade, one of Baffert's longshots or last year's winning duo, there are around 24 remaining to lock in 2026 Kentucky Derby bets. Before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, you'll want to see what racing reporter and analyst Michelle Yu has to say before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby bets.

In a wide-open Kentucky Derby in 2021, Yu gave out Medina Spirit, who crossed the finish line first, as the winner at 12-1. In Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager three years ago, she suggested a play on All Other 3-Year-Olds, which cashed at a whopping 18-1 when Rich Strike won.

She started off 2025 by correctly going all-in on Citizen Bull to win the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, and she also predicted Forever Young's win in the Saudi Cup, Journalism's win in the San Felipe Stakes, Sandman's win in the Arkansas Derby and Mindframe's win in the Churchill Downs Stakes. She also hit the exacta in the Kentucky Derby. In August she hit the Fierceness-Journalism exacta in the Pacific Classic, and in March 2026 she nailed the Renegade-Silent Tactic-Taptastic trifecta in the Arkansas Derby. Anyone who has followed her on those picks on betting sites like FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET could be up huge.

Now, with the 2026 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Yu is sharing her 2026 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.

Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions

One surprise: Yu is fading Commandment, despite his status as one of the favorites at 6-1. Commandment is coming off a big win in the Florida Derby, narrowly edging out another top contender in The Puma (10-1). Despite the win, Commandment did slow down near the end, which could be a problem given the Kentucky Derby is 1 1/4 miles while the Florida Derby was 1 1/8 miles.

"I don't like that his win margins have diminished as the races have gotten longer," Yu said to SportsLine. "He was very game in his Florida Derby score, though." Something else to note is that Commandment's jockey, Luis Saez, may be very experienced in his own right, but he never finished better than third place in the Kentucky Derby in 12 previous appearances. See which other 2026 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.

Another curveball: Yu is high on The Puma at 10-1. Jockey Javier Castellano and trainer Gustavo Delgado, who won the 2023 Kentucky Derby as a tandem with Mage, have re-united for the 2026 Kentucky Derby with The Puma. Yu is high on the horse in this year's Run for the Roses. His best races put him right in the mix, and these connections have won a Derby before," Yu told SportsLine. "He did everything but win the Florida Derby when Commandment nosed him out, but he has been super consistent."

Castellano made some history in 2023 during the Triple Crown, winning two of the three legs while riding different horses. That should help him get the best out of The Puma, who won the Tampa Bay Derby and finished second in Florida. See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can sign up for FanDuel Racing for the Kentucky Derby here to get $25 in bonuses with a $5 wager:

How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks

Moreover, Yu's top pick is a horse who is "screaming for more ground." She's also is high on a longshot who has "connections that can get it done." She is including this horse in her 2026 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you. She's sharing which 2026 Kentucky Derby horses to back at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2026 Kentucky Derby? What longshot is a must-back, and how has Yu constructed her wagers? Visit SportsLine to see Yu's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the Santa Anita-based racing insider who has a long history of success in the Kentucky Derby, and find out.

2026 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions