2026 Kentucky Derby predictions, odds, contenders: Picks by the expert who cashed 22 of 39 Triple Crown races

Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions

One of Hochman's surprising 2026 Kentucky Derby picks: One issue with Commandment is his slowdowns at the end of the course, which is a problem given the Kentucky Derby is longer than the Florida Derby. There's also the issue of jockey of Luis Saez lacking Derby success. Saez has 12 starts in the Kentucky Derby and not only has he never won, but he's never finished in the top two.

"Despite winning the Florida Derby, Commandment's 1:49.99 race time is slow compared to recent winners. His peak came in the Fountain of Youth, posting a 99 Equibase Speed Figure, but he dropped to 96 in the Florida Derby. Both finishes were razor-thin-a nose and a neck-revealing his difficulty in separating from rivals when it counts," Hochman told SportsLine. "Additionally, Commandment's jockey situation adds uncertainty." See who to back at SportsLine.

Another stunner: Hochman is high on The Puma, who is 10-1 and comes into the 2026 Kentucky Derby off a close loss in the Florida Derby. The Puma has strong connections with jockey Javier Castellano and trainer Gustavo Delgado, who are re-united after winning the 2023 Kentucky Derby with Mage. Castellano went on to also win the 2023 Belmont Stakes atop a different horse, showing his versatility as a jockey and his ability to get the best out of whatever horse he's steering.

"The Puma has shown grit in every race and should be a key factor in exotic wagers with improving speed figures in every start and is a dangerous contender at a square price," Hochman says. "He finished a close second in the Florida Derby but earned a significantly faster Thoro-graph number (2½) than the winner, Commandment, thanks to his wide trip. Running the final three-eights of a mile in 36.89 seconds and the final eighth in 12.68 seconds should serve him well." See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can sign up for FanDuel Racing here to get $25 in bonuses with a $5 wager:

How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, bets

Moreover, Hochman's top pick is a horse with "remarkable finishing speed." He also is high on a double-digit longshot who is "peaking at the perfect moment." Hochman is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2026 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.

Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2026, and which longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2026 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Hochman's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has a 65.7% win rate and has cashed in 22 of the past 39 Triple Crown races.

2026 Kentucky Derby odds