2026 Kentucky Derby predictions, odds, contenders: Picks from expert who's cashed 22 of 39 Triple Crown races

Now, Hochman has handicapped the 2026 Kentucky Derby field and revealed his picks. Go here to see them.

Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions

One of Hochman's surprising 2026 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Commandment (6-1) even though he's one of the favorites. The horse is coming off back-to-back graded stakes victories with different jockeys in each. However, both of those jockeys have chosen to ride other horses on Saturday, which indicates they aren't as high on Commandment as the Kentucky Derby oddsmakers are. The horse will be ridden by Luis Saez, who has the fourth-most Derby starts (12) without either a victory or runner-up.

Commandment's highest achievement is winning the Florida Derby in his last start. However, his time was the third-slowest by the Florida winner over the last 11 years, despite pristine track conditions. Also, Commandment's top speed figure actually declined in that race, compared to his prior start. Thus, you have to wonder if the horse has already peaked, which makes him too much of a risk to play at these short odds. See who to back at SportsLine.

Another stunner: Hochman is high on The Puma, even though he's a 10-1 longshot, and is coming off a tight loss at the Florida Derby last month.

"He finished a close second in the Florida Derby but earned a significantly faster Thoro-graph number (2½) than the winner, Commandment, thanks to his wide trip," Hochman told SportsLine. "Running the final three-eights of a mile in 36.89 seconds and the final eighth in 12.68 seconds should serve him well. He could be a major contender, with odds likely to fall in the mid-tier range. Trainer Gustavo Delgado used a similar approach leading up to this race with Mage in 2023. The Puma has shown grit in every race and should be a key factor in exotic wagers with improving speed figures in every start." See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can sign up for FanDuel Racing here to get $25 in bonuses with a $5 wager:

How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, bets

Moreover, Hochman's top pick is a horse with "remarkable finishing speed." He also is high on a double-digit longshot who is "peaking at the perfect moment." Hochman is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2026 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.

Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2026, and which longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2026 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Hochman's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has a 65.7% win rate and has cashed in 22 of the past 39 Triple Crown races.

2026 Kentucky Derby odds