2026 Kentucky Derby predictions, odds, top contenders: Picks from expert who had a $1,045 win last year

Now, Menez has handicapped the 2026 Kentucky Derby field and revealed his picks. Go here to see them. Sign up for FanDuel Racing, where new users get $25 in bonuses with a $5 bet:

Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions

One of Menez's surprising 2026 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading the favorite, Renegade. On paper, the Todd Pletcher trainee ranks among the strongest contenders for all 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, but to Menez, there's more than meets the eye.
In five career races, Renegade has never finished outside the Top 3. His final Derby prep was a victory in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, where he defeated fellow Derby-bound runner Silent Tactic (who has since scratched).

Pletcher has two Derby wins, so he knows how to get a horse ready for the Run for the Roses. That said, he'll start from the No. 1 spot, and no horse has won from there in 40 years. He'll need to get off to a super start to avoid the traffic crashing onto the gate by Turn 1. See who to back at SportsLine.

Another stunner: Menez is high on Chief Wallabee at 8-1. Not since Bob Baffert in 1997 and 1998 and D. Wayne Lukas in 1995 and 1996 have trainers been able to win back-to-back Kentucky Derby races. Bill Mott, however, may join them if Chief Wallabee is victorious on Saturday. Last year, the Mott-trained Sovereignty edged out the favored Journalsim by 1 ½ lengths on a sloppy track.

Chief Wallabee is fresh off a third-place finish at the 2026 Florida Derby on March 28. He was second at the February 2026 Fountain of Youth. He opened his racing career in January with a win at the MSW at Gulfstream Park. He is no stranger to facing Kentucky Derby favorites, having already squared off with Commandment. See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks at TwinSpires here with the offer code CBSSPORTS:

How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, bets

Menez's top pick is a horse who was "the big winner of the post draw." He also is high on a double-digit longshot who he deems the best win value in the field. Menez is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2026 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.

Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2026, and which longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2026 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Menez's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who had a $1,045 payout at last year's race.

2026 Kentucky Derby odds