2026 NBA playoff predictions: Expert picks for every first-round series

That said, you can't afford to look ahead in the playoffs. You have to take it one series at a time. That's what we've done below, where you will find our expert picks for the first round. Let the games begin.

No. 1 Detroit Pistons vs. No. 8 Orlando Magic

Botkin: Pistons in 6. This is suddenly interesting after the Magic put the Hornets in a straitjacket on Friday. I know it's one game against the Hornets, but that was the Magic team everyone expected all along. Smothering defense. Paolo Banchero playing like a superstar. Detroit and Orlando are similar in that they both do their damage in the paint, struggle to shoot, and play a ferocious brand of defense. This could be a slugfest. Orlando is not your typical No. 8 seed in terms of talent, and I would say Detroit also isn't your typical No. 1 seed in terms of talent. That said, the Pistons are very good. And I trust the evidence Orlando showed most of the season more than I do one play-in game.

Gonzalez: Pistons in 5. This has the potential to be a super physical rock fight of a series. Let's see if all the old heads who complain about how the NBA was better back when teams regularly scored under 100 points enjoy this one.

Herbert: Pistons in 5. If I could trust Orlando to play with the intensity it displayed against Charlotte on Friday, I'd predict a seven-game slugfest. Unfortunately, I cannot trust the Magic whatsoever.

Maloney: Pistons in 5. These teams have some similarities, particularly with their extremely physical approach. However, the Pistons have been the better and more consistent team all season.

Quinn: Pistons in 4. The offensively iffy, defensively tough Play-In team really doesn't have much hope against the offensively iffy, defensively tough 60-win team. The Pistons are just the fully realized version of what the Magic are trying to be. Their defense is better. Their rebounding is better. Their athletes are more athletic. Their No. 1 pick has grown into an All-NBA player. You're not going to out-Pistons the Pistons.

Salerno: Pistons in 5. I had high hopes for the Magic coming into the season. For the most part, Orlando has been underwhelming despite having a roster I really liked. A play-in win over the Hornets doesn't change much. I can see the Magic stealing a game at home, but this will be a gentleman's sweep.

Wimbish: Pistons in 6. This is going to be an absolute rock fight. Get ready for some 80s-level, low-scoring affairs here, people. For all you defense-obsessed sickos, this is going to be the series for you. Personally, I cannot wait.

No. 2 Boston Celtics vs. No. 7 Philadelphia 76ers

Botkin: Celtics in 5. I'm assuming Joel Embiid is out for the duration of the series, but even if he somehow returns, the Celtics are just too good for the Sixers. Boston is the most complete team in the East, and it's going to take much more than the Sixers have to beat them four times. But I do think Tyrese Maxey can take over one game.

Gonzalez:Celtics in 4.

**Herbert: Celtics in 5.**This could have been pretty interesting with Joel Embiid involved. Oh well.

Maloney: Celtics in 5. Even though the Celtics do struggle a bit with small, quick guards like Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe, Boston just has too much talent and depth.

Quinn: Celtics in 5. Tyrese Maxey poses some problems for a Boston defense that's excellent but lacks speedy guards. Still, it would have taken a healthy Joel Embiid against a thin Boston front court to make this series competitive, and without knowing his status, I'd expect a relatively clean Boston victory.

Salerno: Celtics in 5. Boston and Philadelphia split the series (2-2) in the regular season. However, all four of those games were without Jayson Tatum in the lineup. With Joel Embiid's status up in the air, Boston should walk out of here with a gentleman's sweep.

Wimbish: Celtics in 5. This may end sooner depending on Joel Embiid's status going forward. I'll give one game to the brilliance of Tyrese Maxey, or maybe a possible breakout game from rookie VJ Edgecombe. But this Boston team is performing too well right now for this series to go any longer than that.

No. 3 New York Knicks vs. No. 6 Atlanta Hawks

Botkin: Knicks in 5. I don't think the Hawks are as good as their stretch-run record indicates. Mike Brown lightened the load on New York's core guys this season, and here's where that is supposed to pay off. The Knicks have a size advantage and the best player in the series. If the Knicks are serious, they take care of Atlanta fairly quickly.

Gonzalez: Knicks in 7. This has become a fashionable upset pick in various NBA circles. I get it. The Knicks were barely break-even against teams .500 or better; that's the worst record among the seven teams with the best odds to win it all this postseason. If the Hawks pull the upset, will anyone outside of NYC be surprised?

Herbert: Hawks in 6. Based on how the Hawks closed the season, why can't they at least push the Knicks? I can see this looking a lot like New York's first-round series against Detroit last year, and that one easily could have gone the other way.

Maloney: Knicks in 6. The Hawks have a better record and net rating than the Knicks since the All-Star break, and are a fairly popular upset pick. But as great as Atlanta has been down the stretch I trust Jalen Brunson and Co. more in a playoff setting.

Quinn: Knicks in 6. This is a potentially great series, with both sides having the exact sort of defenders (OG Anunoby for Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels for Jalen Brunson) to stifle their opponent's best player. The difference here should be Karl-Anthony Towns playing against a pretty small Hawks front line. If he has the series he should, Atlanta just won't have the offensive firepower to keep up.

Salerno: Knicks in 6. The Hawks have defenders to throw at Jalen Brunson to make this interesting. Still, this will come down to New York having the best player in the series. Atlanta also went 23-30 in the regular season against teams that were .500 or better.

Wimbish: Knicks in 6. This is one of the more enticing first-round series. We won't have Trae Young to play villain against the Knicks, but New York will get introduced to several other potential villains on this Atlanta team. Jalen Johnson has been the type of player that basketball obsessives have been raving about the last couple years. On a national stage, at Madison Square Garden, he'll have the opportunity to break the hearts of many Knicks fans as a way to introduce himself to casual fans.

No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 5 Toronto Raptors

**Botkin: Cavs in 6.**Donovan Mitchell is an electric postseason player. The Raptors aren't good enough in the half-court. Both teams are deep. Toronto will try to win the bench margin, but in the end, I don't think they can keep up with the Cavs for the long haul.

**Gonzalez: Cavs in 6.**The Cavs had a disappointing postseason a year ago. The Raptors are awfully expensive for a middle-of-the-pack 5-seed. Both of these teams really need to get out of the first round.

**Herbert: Cavs in 5.**Toronto is going to do everything it can to make Cleveland uncomfortable. Maybe this goes a bit longer than I'm predicting, but the Cavs simply have more firepower.

**Maloney: Cavs in 6.**The Raptors were 21-27 against teams with a winning record this season -- by far the worst mark in that category by a top-five seed in either conference. The Cavaliers have had a strange season, but they'll get through this matchup.

Quinn: Cavs in 5. Toronto's path to competing in this series is through transition. They're a great fast-break team, and the Cavs don't play great transition defense. But this is the playoffs, and the playoffs tend to be slower. With Immanuel Quickley hobbled, Toronto is just going to have too hard a time scoring in a half-court setting. Their traditional centers aren't mobile enough to effectively defend James Harden pick-and-rolls, but a switch-heavy look with Collin Murray-Boyles at center would leave Toronto vulnerable against Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, so with no good answers, I'm expecting a relatively comfortable Cleveland win.

**Salerno: Cavs in 6.**The Raptors won all three regular-season meetings against the Cavs this season. However, the Raptors and Cavaliers played all of those before Thanksgiving. That seems like a lifetime ago. I'm still really bullish on the Cavs. This is the year Cleveland returns to the ECF.

**Wimbish: Cavs in 6.**Toronto is going to put up a good fight against Cleveland, but at the end of the day, Donovan Mitchell's ability to elevate his game in the postseason makes me favor the Cavs to get through.

No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 8 Phoenix Suns

**Botkin: Thunder in 4.**Phoenix wins by playing hard, but nobody plays harder than the Thunder, whose talent advantage in this series is immense. I can't see Phoenix winning a game.

**Gonzalez: Thunder in 4.**It's surprising that Phoenix is even here. The Suns won 36 games a year ago, traded Kevin Durant and... somehow got better. Not sure how the math on that works, but 45 regular-season wins and a playoff appearance is a win for the Suns. They should be happy with that, because they won't find any victories in this series.

**Herbert: Thunder in 4.**Shoutout to Phoenix. Wonderful season. Terrible matchup.

**Maloney: Thunder in 4.**The Suns are a real pain to deal with due to their physicality and effort, but the Thunder enjoy that type of showdown and are significantly more talented.

Quinn: Thunder in 4. Just making the playoffs is a tremendous success for the Suns, but the Play-In game against Portland was a reminder that Devin Booker isn't quite the same postseason scorer he once was. If Toumani Camara and Jrue Holiday gave him such problems, how's he going to fare against the greatest collection of perimeter defenders perhaps in NBA history? The Thunder just won 64 games while dealing with an underacknowledged amount of injuries. They're not getting quite the respect they deserve as an absolute juggernaut going into the postseason. This series will remind the world why it felt like they could break the all-time wins record a few months ago.

Salerno: Thunder in 4. The Thunder are a different beast in the playoffs. I don't see anyone offering much resistance until the second round. This will be a sweep for the reigning champs. The second round against the Lakers or the Rockets could be where it gets interesting.

Wimbish: Thunder in 5. Dillon Brooks is saying the Suns are going to walk into Oklahoma City and steal Game 1. I don't know about that, but I'll give him and the Suns one game in what I imagine will be a rather lopsided series.

No. 2 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 7 Portland Trail Blazers

**Botkin: Spurs in 6.**The Blazers are a nasty defensive unit that pressures every point on the court. They don't look like a good 3-point shooting team on paper but they have guys who can knock down shots -- Jerami Grant, Jrue Holiday, Toumani Carmara, Shaedon Sharpe, even Donovan Clingan is capable -- and I believe they will win in this series at least a couple of times. Oh, by the way, Deni Avdija is a beast. Of course, Avdija drives as hard as anyone in the league, and there's this guy named Victor Wembanyama in the middle for San Antonio. The Spurs will win this series, but Portland won't make it easy.

**Gonzalez: Spurs in 5.**I might have watched more late-night Blazers games than anyone outside of Portland. Reaching the playoffs proper is a nice reward for a pleasantly surprising season, and I'm excited to see what they look like next year after experiencing the postseason -- which should be short-lived for them. I'm giving the Blazers a game here out of respect for their efforts.

**Herbert: Spurs in 5.**As much as I love the Blazers' defense, how in the world is this team going to score against San Antonio? The Spurs typically keep teams off the line, and if they can manage that here, Portland's in trouble.

**Maloney: Spurs in 4.**The Trail Blazers have the worst offensive rating of any team in the playoffs, and the Spurs were third in the league in defensive rating. Don't see how Portland scores enough to challenge Victor Wembanyama and co.

Quinn: Spurs in 4. So much of Portland's offense relies on Deni Avdija's penetration, and an offense that relies on the penetration of a single player couldn't ask for a worse pair of opponents than Stephon Castle and Victor Wembanyama. I just don't see how the Blazers are going to score enough to stay in this series with their shooting limitations. They could go small and play Jerami Grant at center as they did against Phoenix, but that sacrifices Donovan Clingan's rebounding. This is simply a mismatch.

Salerno: **Spurs in 6.**Portland has the defensive personnel to make this series competitive. My prediction: Portland steals a game in San Antonio, then ultimately loses in six. The last time De'Aaron Fox was in the playoffs with the Sacramento Kings, he thrived. The Spurs will need him at his best this postseason.

**Wimbish: Spurs in 5.**The Blazers being in the playoffs is a shock to some, and that defense certainly is a main reason why they got here. That, and Deni Avdija having a breakout season. That being said, they don't have anyone who can credibly slow Victor Wembanyama, so logic makes me think this will be a short series.

No. 3 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 6 Minnesota Timberwolves

Botkin: Nuggets in 7.Aaron Gordon is the key here. First off, his hamstring has to hold up. Second, his ability to shoot the 3 will punish the Wolves if they want to put Rudy Gobert on him and use Gobert as a roamer. But Gobert will likely be on Nikola Jokic more, and I don't like that one-on-one matchup for him. The Wolves are a proven postseason team, and I think this goes the distance, but the Nuggets move on.

**Gonzalez: Nuggets in 7.**The marquee series of the first round. The Wolves had to be bummed that the Nuggets beat the Spurs on the final day of the regular season to keep the No. 3 seed. Otherwise, they'd be playing the Lakers in the first round. A third straight trip to the Western Conference finals for Minnesota looks unlikely.

**Herbert: Nuggets in 5.**I don't think Minnesota presents the same problems for the Nuggets as it did a couple of years ago. Denver's deeper now, too, and the Wolves have been in a weird place for a while.

**Maloney: Nuggets in 6.**This is the third playoff meeting between these teams in the last four years and the Wolves will rightfully have confidence they can win. The Nuggets' offense has just been too good this season, though, and the Wolves don't have as much size as they once did to throw at Nikola Jokić, who has destroyed them this season.

Quinn: **Nuggets in 5.**A lot of the things that made Minnesota's 2024 upset over Denver possible no longer apply. Ayo Dosunmu isn't going to hound Jamal Murray the way Nickeil Alexander-Walker did. Julius Randle can't take the Nikola Jokić matchup as Karl-Anthony Towns did. That freed Rudy Gobert up to "guard" Aaron Gordon but mostly function as an off-ball rim-protector, but now that Gordon is a reliable shooter, that matchup is no longer available to him. Anthony Edwards didn't look great down the stretch. The Nuggets are far deeper than they were two years ago. I don't expect Denver to have too much trouble in this matchup.

Salerno: Nuggets in 7. I think this is the only series that will go the distance. Truthfully, this is also the series I'm most excited about. After losing to OKC in the second round last season, Denver is once again on a collision course to face the Thunder. Denver has a tough draw in the first round, but I think the Nuggets are the second-best team in the West.

**Wimbish: Wolves in 7.**I think many of us are assuming this series is going to go the distance, and while logic usually tends to favor the team hosting a Game 7, I'm going with an upset. I feel like playing Denver brings the best out of Anthony Edwards and the Timberwolves, and I've seen them best this Nuggets team before.

No. 4 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 5 Houston Rockets

Botkin: Rockets in 5. Kevin Durant is suddenly questionable for Game 1 with a knee contusion? I can't imagine he won't play, but his health is at least something to monitor as a potential lifeline for a Lakers team down two of its three best players. I have a sneaking suspicion Luka Dončić will find his way into this series if the Lakers can extend it long enough for that to happen. I don't trust the Rockets. Especially late in games. But in the end, the Lakers just don't have the horses without Austin Reaves and Dončić.

**Gonzalez: Rockets in 5.**No Luka Dončić and no Austin Reaves is a killer for the painfully thin Lakers. LeBron turned in another fantastic season, but the lift here is too heavy even for him.

**Herbert: Rockets in 5.**I was tempted to go with a sweep here, but Kevin Durant's knee contusion and Houston's propensity to get stagnant in crunch time scared me off. Given the current state of the Lakers, though, I can't give them more than a game.

Maloney: Rockets in 6. The Rockets are extremely untrustworthy, but it's impossible to pick the Lakers when they won't have Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves for at least the first few games of this series.

Quinn: Rockets in 5. I may be projecting here, but I want one last magical LeBron James playoff moment. A series win is too much to ask for, but could we see him turn back the clock for a single game just to remind us why he is perhaps the greatest player of all time? This series is otherwise a mismatch. The undermanned Lakers shouldn't be able to score against the big, athletic Rockets, and their defense was an issue even at full strength. Realistically, this series should be a sweep. Predicting one feels like enough of a slap in the face to James that I can't, in good conscience, do so.

Salerno: Rockets in 6. Even if Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves are out for most (if not all) of this series, Houston is no shoo-in to advance. The Rockets have been dysfunctional at times this season, but I still think they move on. This could very well be the last time Kevin Durant and LeBron James face off in a postseason setting. Enjoy it.

Wimbish: Rockets in 6. We'll give two games to elder millennial LeBron James, he's certainly deserving of that level of respect. Though this could end a lot quicker if James doesn't get  Rui Hachimura and Jake LaRavia pulling off their best Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves impressions.