2026 NBA playoffs: Key questions for Rockets-Lakers and every first-round series

Everything to know for the NBA playoffs: Predictions, series previews, X-factors

Concerns about Tatum and Brown and whether they can coexist are comical at this point. They delivered a title and were five minutes from taking a 3-1 lead in another NBA Finals. They have won 15 playoff series together. Few duos have ever enjoyed so much success. Tatum and Brown have never lost as a tandem in the first round, and they have a supporting cast, as unheralded as it may be, that can support them.

They are 28 and 29 years old, respectively, in the prime of their careers. At their peaks, they are perennial title contenders. The Achilles injury threatened Tatum’s peak. We think he can get back to those heights. But can he this year? If each series is an opportunity for Tatum to find another gear, meeting this moment is a next step. — Rohrbach

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(6) Hawks vs. (3) Knicks

Key question: Can the Hawks turn this into a track meet?

The Hawks finished the regular season fifth in possessions per 48 minutes; the Knicks were 25th. The Hawks were second in the NBA in average time to shot, according to Inpredictable; the Knicks were 24th. The Hawks had the second-quickest average offensive possession, according to PBP Stats; the Knicks had the fourth slowest. The Hawks were fourth in the league in transition frequency, with nearly 17% of their offensive plays coming on the fast break, according to Cleaning the Glass; the Knicks were 16th, at just over 15%.

It all tracks, from a “styles make fights” perspective. With Jalen Brunson at the controls of the offense, and OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart to turn perimeter assignments into a wrestling match, New York prefers a half-court game. With all the length and athleticism that Atlanta has on the wing — Jalen Johnson, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels, newcomer Jonathan Kuminga off the bench — playing uptempo before an opponent can get its defense set favors the Hawks. Whichever team sets the speed limit has the best chance of setting the terms of engagement for what ought to be a tough, hard-fought series.

(One X-factor to watch there: The possession-controlling play of Mitchell Robinson, who rebounded an absurd 23.9% of New York’s missed shots during his floor time this season, and whose length and quick hands make him a shot-blocking and steal-grabbing menace. Across two matchups with the Hawks this season, Robinson grabbed eight offensive rebounds, four blocks and four steals in 38 total minutes, which New York won by 14 points; his physicality could overwhelm an Atlanta front line that really lacks size, especially if reserve Jock Landale isn’t ready to go after suffering a right high ankle sprain against the Magic two weeks ago.) — Devine

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(5) Raptors vs. (4) Cavaliers

Key question: Which version of James Harden will take the floor?

We should all be familiar with Harden’s playoff foibles. A 3-for-11 effort on the biggest of stages is not unusual for him. Which is pretty shocking for one of the great regular-season offensive engines in the sport’s history. His solo act never quite translated to the postseason, when defenses can really hone in on how to stop a one-man show.

Worse was when Harden, as a perennial MVP candidate, completely shied from the moment, leaving his teammates to sort out an offense that was entirely built for him.

But in Cleveland Harden does not need to be the superstar he was. In fact, the Cavs would prefer he weren’t. High usage falls on Mitchell, one of the great individual performers in playoff history. Only a handful of players, including Michael Jordan and LeBron James, have averaged more than Donovan Mitchell’s 28.3 playoff points per game.

Harden mainly has to work from the weak side of the ball, making open chances (he has shot 40% on catch-and-shoot 3-point opportunities this season) and attacking close-outs. When Mitchell is off the floor, Harden can work his two-man game with Jarrett Allen, a devastating combo, so one elite creator can remain on the court at all times.

What happens if Harden craters again? He is already a defensive liability, and if he becomes one on offense, too, he is a hole in an otherwise contender. (Again.) Surely, the Cavs can survive against Toronto without an additive version of Harden, but it would haunt them in later rounds, and they do not want to see any evidence of it now. — Rohrbach

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WESTERN CONFERENCE

(7) Portland Trail Blazers vs. San Antonio Spurs

Key question: Can the Blazers take care of the ball?

The Blazers ranked dead last in the NBA in turnover rate this season, coughing the ball up on 16.8% of their offensive possessions, and allowed a league-high 21.4 points per game off those miscues. That’s a recipe for disaster for a team like Portland — one that is excellent at getting stops in the half-court, but typically very bad at getting buckets in the half-court. When you can’t really match the other guys’ firepower, you need to both maximize the chances you do get and refrain from giving them even more.

When the Blazers have been able to do that, they’ve been pretty damn good. Counting their play-in victory, in games where they’ve registered a turnover rate of 15% or fewer — which, for context, is still a below-average level of ball security; Chicago and Detroit tied for 21st in the NBA at 15% this season — they’re 19-7, according to Cleaning the Glass. That’s a 60-win pace.

However, that still leaves 57 games in which they’ve turned it over on more than 15% of their offensive trips. And in those games, the Blazers are just 24-33 — a 35-win pace. That’s a pretty massive difference.

(In fairness to Portland, myriad backcourt injuries that led to Deni Avdija being on the ball a career-high 35% of the time and more than 1,000 minutes for two-way rookie guard Caleb Love help explain a lot of those elevated turnover numbers. When the Blazers have had Avdija, Holiday and Henderson on the floor, they’ve taken care of the ball at a league-best rate.)

In a series like this, against an opponent like the Spurs — who finished with the third-lowest opponent turnover rate in the NBA this season, tending toward a more conservative defensive style befitting a team that can funnel everything into the world’s best rim deterrent — coming down on the wrong side of the possession game is something the Blazers can ill afford. In two wins over Portland during the regular season, San Antonio turned 34 turnovers into 47 points; in the Blazers’ lone win, they committed just 11 turnovers, leading to only nine Spurs points.

An awful lot has to go right for the Blazers to have a chance of pulling what would be, by all accounts, a gargantuan upset. One pretty good first step? Limit your self-inflicted wounds, and don’t give away extra possessions. The Spurs really don’t need the charity; they can inflict plenty of wounds just fine all by themselves. — Devine

(6) Timberwolves vs. (3) Nuggets

Key question: Who’s going to be healthiest on the wings?

Anthony Edwards missed most of the final month of the season with patellofemoral pain syndrome in his right knee, and Jaden McDaniels missed two weeks with tendinopathy and a bone bruise in his left knee. They’ve both returned, and both looked more or less like themselves in their most recent action, with Edwards scoring 22 points in 27 minutes in a win over the Rockets, while McDaniels added 16 points, 7 rebounds and 4 blocked shots. Persistent knee injuries can be tricky, though — and the prospect of both Minnesota’s No. 1 offensive option and its top option to defend Murray at the point of attack moving on wobbly wheels is enough to give observers some pause.

For Denver, an awful lot rests on Aaron Gordon’s legs. A left hamstring strain compromised him for the conclusion of Denver’s second-round loss to Oklahoma City last spring; right hamstring strains cost him more than half of this season. He’s been back in the fold since early March, averaging 13.5 points, 5.2 rebounds and 2.9 assists in 27.8 minutes per game down the stretch as he ramps up.

The best version of the Nuggets features Gordon bodying up the likes of Julius Randle and Naz Reid, stretching the floor for Nikola Jokić, fighting for deep seals in the post against smaller defenders on switches and cross-matches, attacking the offensive glass against a Minnesota team that ranked just 19th in defensive rebounding rate, and generally looking like the picture-perfect missing piece that helped deliver Denver the 2023 NBA title. When he’s running on all cylinders, the Nuggets can beat anybody. When he’s not — and especially with Peyton Watson and Spencer Jones, Denver’s two other top big-wing defenders, also working their way back from injuries — they can get got. — Devine

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(5) Rockets vs. (4) Lakers

Key question: Can LeBron shoulder the necessary load if Dončić and Reaves are limited?

James is still capable of carrying an incredible burden on his own — in limited minutes. He has spent about 18 possessions per game on the court without Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves this season, and the Lakers have had great success, outscoring opponents by 11.3 points per 100 meaningful possessions, per Cleaning the Glass.

At least Kevin Durant can share the load with Alperen Şengün. Amen Thompson, Reed Sheppard and even Jabari Smith Jr., all of them can do — and have done — a little more with the ball than their roles call for in the absence of Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams. Houston still has weapons.

It is not the same with the Lakers. Dončić and Reaves do most of the creation now, and if they aren’t there, James will have to do it almost entirely on his own. Maybe Marcus Smart or Rui Hachimura can get themselves a shot, but the Lakers are built on role players — Deandre Ayton, Jaxson Hayes, Luke Kennard, Jake LaRavia — who can support Los Angeles’ three offensive dynamos with rim running or floor spacing.

There is no better player ever, maybe, at tying those pieces all together than James. In his prime, much like Dončić does now, James could shoulder a league-leading usage rate, orchestrating almost everything on the floor, practically for 48 minutes.

Remember how he carried the Cleveland Cavaliers to the 2018 NBA Finals? Durant does. That one wasn’t a fair fight. This one may be, if James can turn back the clock. It could be too much to ask of a 41-year-old frame. It’s incredible, really, that it’s come to this, if Dončić and Reaves cannot go: LeBron James, doing everything, once more. — Rohrbach

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