The 2026 NFL Draft is approaching, with predictions for first-round picks highlighting potential fits like Jeremiyah Love to the Commanders and a pass rusher for Dallas. Teams are advised to prioritize the best available players to ensure long-term success.
There may be no bigger crapshoot in sports than the NFL Draft. Perhaps that's why most people subscribe to the idea that you should take the best available player rather than draft based on team need.
In theory, taking the best available prospect will give you a better shot at landing a productive player for the next five to 10 years instead of reaching further down the board to fill one need (among several likely needs) that may not even exist in a year.
In a perfect world, those two things will collide when a team takes the best available player who also fills a glaring need. Without further ado, let's play matchmaker with five spots where that could happen in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft next Thursday night:
[2026 NFL mock draft: Cowboys move up for Ohio State star; Cardinals land QB with late trade
Draft a defensive stud like Sonny Styles, Caleb Downs or Rueben Bain Jr.
Trade down since they only have two picks in the first four rounds
I could see any of these happening as the Commanders have big needs at WR and on the defensive side of the ball. However, the home run move is to draft Love if he falls to Washington. The Titans are currently favored to select Love with the fourth pick, but the Commanders have the second-best chance of landing Love.
Love was the nation's Doak Walker winner (best RB in FBS) last year and has had back-to-back seasons with 17+ rushing touchdowns on 6.9 yards per rush. He's a physical freak (6-0, 202) who ran the same 40 time (4.36 seconds) as Jahmyr Gibbs, a player he has drawn comparisons to. Like Gibbs, he proved he can be an impact in the passing game after an impressive on-field workout at the combine. While Washington might have a bigger need for a WR right now after ranking fifth in rushing yards last season, consider how Love could help the Commanders in the passing game too after they ranked last in receptions from RBs in 2025 (42).
Plus, think about the impact adding a superstar running back had on a division rival just two years ago. The Eagles were a good running team before they added Saquon Barkley in 2024. All he did was run for over 2,000 yards and propel them to a Super Bowl. Daniels and Love could be the new Jalen Hurts-Barkley combo.
The Bengals, like the Commanders, have a lot of needs, especially on defense. This will make for another intriguing selection with the 10th overall pick. They absolutely need a pass rusher to complement the free agent signing of Boye Mafe after losing Trey Hendrickson in free agency. They can't count on production from former first-round picks Myles Murphy or Shemar Stewart after ranking dead last as a team in ESPN's pass rush win rate last year. They could use an off-ball linebacker like Styles after losing Logan Wilson and Germaine Pratt in the last year. The secondary still needs help after losing CB Cam Taylor-Britt in free agency, even after signing safeties Kyle Dugger and Bryan Cook. The offensive line has been a bottom-five unit since drafting Joe Burrow, whose injuries are piling up.
Whatever they do, they better get it right. They have the longest active drought in the NFL without drafting a defender who made the Pro Bowl for them. Their last homegrown Pro Bowl defender was drafted in 2010 (Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap). They desperately need to draft and develop better on defense especially after ranking 30th in scoring defense in 2025.
I don't see them going back to the well at edge rusher in the first round for the third time in four years. Murphy and Stewart have been busts so far which might mean buyer beware becomes a factor. Bain Jr. is a definite possibility but the ideal scenario would be for Downs to fall to them. The Bengals just allowed the most yards after catch per reception (7.0) by any team in a season over the last two decades. Downs could fill multiple needs as he can play box safety and slot corner, much like Nick Emmanwori, the rookie defensive back who had a huge impact on the Seahawks last year. Cincinnati could fit Downs in by sliding slot corner Dax Hill to outside corner, opposite starter D.J. Turner. Downs is the only FBS defensive back with 250+ tackles, 15+ tackles for loss and at least five interceptions in the last three seasons. He would be too good to pass up.
In terms of defensive EPA, the Cowboys had the worst defense by any team in a season over the past five years after trading Micah Parsons to the Packers. They have massive needs at every level of the defense and they have two first-round picks (12, 20) to help turn the tide. Dallas would love to get its hands on a star defender in the draft like Styles, Downs or Bain Jr.. The most likely player to fall to them at No. 12 is Bain Jr., whose stock could drop slightly after his arms measured extremely short at the combine. There's no guarantee any of the trio will be there at No. 12 so don't be surprised if Dallas moves up with a team like the Saints (eighth pick) to secure a game-changing defender.
Dallas' most productive edge rusher last year was actually Jadeveon Clowney (8.5 sacks, 19.1% pressure rate), who is currently a free agent. The current depth at the position is uninspiring: Rashan Gary, James Houston, Donovan Ezeiruaku and Sam Williams. The Cowboys ranked top 10 in pressure rate last season but it wasn't impactful pressure. They allowed the most pass touchdowns with pressure (17) by any team on record (PFF tracks this since 2017). The Cowboys' pressures translated into sacks at the fourth-lowest rate in the league (15%). Translation: they need someone who actually get home. Bain Jr. had the most pressures (83) by any player in a season since 2017 and racked up 5.0 sacks and 24 pressures in four CFP games during Miami's run to the title game. He should make an instant impact for a team trying to capitalize on a window to win with Dak Prescott.
This might be the easiest pick of the draft. Former Ravens Pro Bowl center Tyler Linderbaum signed a record-breaking deal with the Raiders this offseason and the best interior offensive lineman in the 2026 draft should be coming off the board around the Ravens' pick. Ioane did not allow a sack in his final two college seasons at Penn State and only allowed four pressures in 2025. Not bad for a lineman who is considered a road grader who can open up holes for Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry on the ground. Baltimore could also choose to add a tight end like Oregon's Kenyon Sadiq after he blew up the combine with a 4.39 40-yard dash and 43.5-inch vert.
San Diego State CB Chris Johnson's stock shot up following an impressive week at the senior bowl and a standout combine performance (4.40 40-time and 38-inch vertical). Now, the DB with the best stats in the nation last year (allowed lowest passer rating in FBS among 1,321 players targeted 15+ times) looks primed to be a late first-round pick, where a CB-needy team like the Chiefs could grab him.
Kansas City has two first-round picks (No. 9 and 29) after trading CB Trent McDuffie to the Rams and is in desperate need of help in the secondary after also losing Jaylen Watson and Bryan Cook in free agency. The Chiefs could add a physical shutdown corner in Johnson just like they drafted McDuffie 29th overall in 2022 after losing starting CB Charvarius Ward in free agency that offseason. I wouldn't be shocked to see Kansas City go in any direction with the ninth pick (needs include WR, RT, Edge, CB) but a corner like Johnson seems more likely at No. 29.
