2026 NFL Draft forces teams to rethink top-five pick strategy

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Recent NFL draft classes have seen around eight to fourteen blue-chip prospects at the top. This year’s group has closer to two to five, headlined by Jeremiyah Love and Caleb Downs. That shortage changes the math for every team picking in the top five.

In a typical draft, teams can afford to pass on an elite player early and still recover later in the round. This year, however, passing on Love or Downs means settling for a good-but-flawed alternative with a significantly lower ceiling and no way to make up the difference.

Top-five picks fail nearly half the time before teams start reaching for positional fit

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Even in deep draft years, the success rate for top-five selections typically falls between 56 and 65 percent. That means one out of every two or three picks ends up falling short of long-term expectations. And that’s when teams stick to the board and take the best player available.

When clubs start drafting for immediate need, that failure rate climbs even higher. Reaching down their own board to plug a gap – something that could be handled later in free agency, via trade, or with a mid-round pick – often leads to more misses than hits.

Arizona is already feeling the squeeze of this class at number three

Arizona has been linked to Jeremiyah Love, one of the few consensus elite players in this class. The Cardinals also have roster needs at other positions, which creates the temptation to pass on Love for a player who fills a more immediate gap.

This is how value slips away in top-heavy classes. If Love is graded highest on Arizona’s board at number three and they choose someone else due to positional need, it’s essentially passing over talent for fit – and that rarely works out.