2026 NFL Draft: Our favorite bets ahead of Thursday night's first round

Favorite team and first position drafted bet

NB: The odds for the position of the player first drafted by the Chiefs seem all out of whack to me. The second favorite is an offensive lineman at +250. Kansas City has a fair amount of needs along the defensive line, in the secondary and even at wide receiver. Assuming Josh Simmons returns to the lineup after his season-ending wrist injury, the Chiefs’ offensive line should be one of the better units in the league.

Those needs are why you should throw a few bucks at either a defensive lineman or edge rusher at +225 or a wide receiver at +300. Could Caleb Downs be the pick at No. 9 if Reese, Bailey and Rueben Bain Jr. are all off the board? Sure. Safety is 10-1. But I’d put my money on one of those edge rushers still being available at No. 9.

Yahoo Sports TV is here! Watch live shows and highlights 24/7

FS: One comment from Carolina Panthers general manager Dan Morgan about possibly taking a receiver in the first round for a third straight year pushed those odds to +250, and receiver is the favorite to be the Panthers’ first pick. I don’t buy it. Offensive lineman is a possibility, but instead I’ll go to safety at +525. Dillon Thieneman and Emmanuel McNeil-Warren are both in the range of No. 19, when the Panthers pick, and they have a need there. It matches up pretty well, especially considering the odds.

Which team will draft Jeremiyah Love?

NB: There’s some value to be had if you’re convinced Love will go to the Titans. He’s currently +110 to be picked by the Titans and -125 to go No. 4 overall. It’s hard to see someone trading up to No. 4 to get him — unless the Commanders think they need to get ahead of the Giants at No. 5 — so if you think that Love is heading to Nashville, bet him to go to Tennessee specifically at +110 odds and not to go No. 4.

I’m thinking the Commanders (+250) are the best play, however. With the Giants having two top-10 picks, Styles is in line to be their first pick if he’s still available. That could pave the way for Love to drop a couple spots to No. 7.

FS: By the time last year’s draft rolled around, the drumbeat on the Raiders taking running back Ashton Jeanty was undeniable, even if it made little sense for a rebuilding team with many holes. So, we don’t want to make the same mistake and ignore everyone mocking Love to the Titans at No. 4. But would Tennessee, with a defensive-minded head coach, really pass on Bailey or Reese for a running back, if they have that choice? That seems a bit hard to believe.

The odds of Love to the Titans are just +110, and I don’t have enough conviction on that being the pick to bet that. I do think a team with an extra top-10 pick could use one on a difference-making running back though. While I get Nick’s argument for Styles at No. 5, they did just sign Tremaine Edmunds to a three-year, $36 million deal and Micah McFadden was re-signed too. I’m liking the Giants to take Love at +650.

Which team will draft Ty Simpson?

NB: This is a tough one for me given the potential strength of the 2027 quarterback class. Simpson spent four years at Alabama, but he was just a starter for one. Is anyone going to use a first-round pick on Simpson or will he be waiting until Friday for his name to be called?

The Cardinals are the obvious favorites given their quarterback room, but it’s easy to see the Jets taking a flier if he’s still available at the start of the second round. New York at +250 might be the play. They have the first pick of the second round. Arizona picks second on Friday night.

FS: The Cardinals are a significant favorite here to draft Simpson at -175. I’m not sure it makes much sense for Arizona, which will have a prime pick in 2027 for a much better quarterback class — but the Cardinals aren’t exactly known for their sound decisions. I guess that’s the best bet for Simpson, but there’s no value in the odds.

So for a longer shot, how about the Browns at 15-1? They have an extra pick in the first round, 24th overall, thanks to the Travis Hunter trade. Their apparent favorite to start at quarterback might be Deshaun Watson, which … ugh. Take a piece of the Browns taking Simpson and get ready to add yet another name to that Browns QB jersey.

Favorite long shot to be a top-10 pick?

NB: Outside of Fernando Mendoza, who doesn’t have any odds listed, eight players have odds at -115 or better to be chosen inside the top 10. They are Love, Styles, Downs, Carnell Tate, Jordyn Tyson, Mauigoa, Bain, and Mansoor Delane. That leaves just one more spot for a player who could be considered a long shot to jump into the top 10 unless any of those players fall out.

That makes this a hard selection. I’ll go with Tennessee CB Jermod McCoy at +700. Teams are always looking for cornerbacks, and McCoy clocked a sub-4.4 40-yard dash at his pro day. Assuming teams are comfortable with his medical records after he missed the 2025 season because of a torn ACL, there’s plenty to like in his game and his attributes to make him a high pick.

FS: I mentioned him before, but Georgia’s Monroe Freeling seems like a good play at +900. He’s a high upside player at a premium position from a program that has produced a bunch of NFL stars. Most teams have at least one problematic spot on the offensive line, so just about any team in the top 10 outside of the Raiders at No. 1 or the Jets at No. 2 (who do have two good offensive tackles) could be in play to take a tackle. Also, former NFL coach Mike Tice loved him when he sat down to talk to Yahoo Sports’ Nate Tice about offensive linemen, and I trust that he’s not alone. Freeling is a good value play.

Will Rueben Bain Jr. be picked before or after his draft position O/U of 9.5?

NB: Before, but just barely. I can’t see any way the Chiefs don’t pick an edge rusher if one of the top three are available. And Bain is flexible enough to immediately start on the edge and move inside next to Chris Jones on passing downs to be a useful chess piece for defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and his attempt to generate more pressure with the front four.

FS: I trust Nick when it comes to Chiefs knowledge, so he’s probably right that Bain won’t get past Kansas City at No. 9. Still, it’s also easy to see Bain as a draft faller, due to his arm length and the off-field issues that have been reported this month. I’ll take under 9.5, just because Bain was such a dominant college player at a valuable position and before the pre-draft process started this offseason he was a good bet to go as high as No. 2 overall. But I don’t have too much confidence in it.