2026 NFL Draft prop picks: Expert locks in best bets and predictions, including epic 30-1 pick

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Carnell Tate draft position: Under 7.5 (-105)

The market appears to be predicting a little bit of a slide for Tate after the Ohio State receiver was once considered the clear option for the Browns at No. 6. While I believe Cleveland will go with an offensive lineman at that spot, I don't know that Tate gets by the Commanders at No. 7, particularly if Jeremiyah Love and Sonny Styles go off the board in the top five. Tate would be a great running mate and eventual replacement for Terry McLaurin, and receiver is a clear need for Washington. Getting the underdog side of this market while having the potential to hit with either the Browns or Commanders seems like good value.

Rueben Bain drafted before Mansoor Delane (-120)

This is a head-to-head matchup available at DraftKings that I could see shifting quickly. Teams don't seem to be too worried about Bain's arm length, and on ability alone he has an argument to be taken in the top five in the same tier as Arvell Reese and David Bailey. Delane is probably the best corner prospect in the draft, though a team comfortable with Jermod McCoy's medicals could prefer him, and there is good enough depth at corner that I don't see Delane as a potential trade-up target like Bain could be. Bain's window could legitimately start at No. 4 overall and I can't see him getting past No. 9, while Delane's window starts at No. 8 and probably goes down to No. 12, unless the Cowboys are one of those McCoy teams. That leaves a small margin for Delane to win this matchup.

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NFL Draft longshot picks

Seahawks draft running back first (+380)

The defending Super Bowl champions lost their Super Bowl MVP, and White thinks they may turn to the NFL Draft to replace him. The Seahawks declined to franchise tag or re-sign Kenneth Walker III after he rushed for 135 yards in Seattle's 29-13 Super Bowl win over the Patriots. Whether it's with the final pick in the first round or by trading back, White expects Seattle to prioritize a replacement.

"No. 32 might be a little high for Jadarian Price, but I think there's a good chance the Seahawks are taking him with their first pick in a different spot," White said. "Running back is their clearest need with Kenneth Walker gone and Zach Charbonnet injured, and we saw how big an impact the rushing attack had in the Super Bowl last year. Seattle has just four picks and will likely prioritize adding more on Draft Day, and those late first-round picks are key for those looking to trade up (maybe for Ty Simpson?) as they come with a fifth-year option. I see the Seahawks making a trade back, then selecting Price in Round 2."

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Jacob Rodriguez drafted in Round 1 (+380)

With this draft class being perceived as short on top-tier talent, there is the potential for the back half of the first round to look even more different from consensus mock drafts than recent years. I see logic in examining the Round 1 pick market as a result for longshots we can take a chance on, and Rodriguez fits the bill. He and CJ Allen play a non-premium position at off-ball linebacker but have high floors and reasons to believe each could land in Round 1, especially to teams looking for a piece to come in and make an immediate impact. Rodriguez won a lot of hardware for his collegiate performance in 2025, and in particular, I could see a number of teams in the back half of Round 1 having him higher on their boards than we expect.

Lions draft safety first (+3000)

Brad Holmes is a best-player-available type of drafter, and with offensive lineman a massive -380 favorite in this prop, I see potential to take a big swing on a lottery ticket play. Detroit's pick at No. 17 is in the perfect range to target an excellent safety class that includes Dillon Thieneman (often tied to the Vikings one pick later) or Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, and even though the Lions have one of the best safety pairings in the league when healthy, there are injury concerns around both Kerby Joseph, who reportedly has a serious knee injury that clouds his long-term outlook, and Brian Branch, who tore his Achilles late last season. Every draft has position-team pairings in Round 1 that look surprising on the surface, and this is one that makes some sense.

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