2026 NFL Draft: Ranking the QB prospects based on Tom Fornelli's college football performance formula

Here are the results for the quarterbacks listed as prospects on NFL.com this year. One minor note: I do not have access to the same data at the FCS level that I do at FBS, so players like North Dakota State's Cole Payton are not included in the rankings.

Fernando Mendoza's score of 8.61% means his score was 8.61% better than the average score of the current class. Sawyer Robertson's score of -4.45% means he was that much worse than the average score. As you can see, most of the players in this class are near the average score, but Mendoza is leaps and bounds ahead of everybody else.

Mendoza's score ranks eighth all-time among the 181 players I've tracked over the last 15 years. It's a great score! It's also the only score in this entire class that ranks in the top 50. Carson Beck's score of 2.02% is good for second in this class but ranks 59th all-time.

What's even more remarkable is this: this is the first season since I began tracking in which the average score of a QB class dropped from one year to the next since the 2022 class. However, the 2021 class score was the highest of all time and can be attributed to an entire season of games played in empty stadiums and fewer games overall, so I don't really consider that a reliable marker.

Furthermore, not only did the average score drop for the first time, but it's the lowest average score of any class since 2018. This is why I use percentiles rather than the raw average. Quarterback play is improving every season at the college level due to advances in both training/practice habits as well as offensive design (not to mention rule changes that help offenses).

In other words, it's not just your eyes telling you this QB class isn't great. The numbers back it up.

As for what the numbers mean for the future, they do not guarantee that Fernando Mendoza will lead the Las Vegas Raiders to greatness. His score more strongly suggests that he's not going to be a bust. No, the busts are usually the players who finish with negative scores.

For every Josh Allen (-1.65%) or Lamar Jackson (-2.92%) that breaks through, there are a lot more Anthony Richardsons (-5.28%), Drew Locks (-5.37%), Kenny Picketts (-2.17%) and Josh Rosens (-2.44%). From what I've noticed, the players who overcome the negative scores are typically the tremendous athletes like Allen and Jackson. After all, my formula only accounts for what a player does as a passer in college; it does not take into account their rushing output. Also, in the case of Josh Allen, he had a small sample size when it came to performances against top-50 defenses (he played at Wyoming), and his accuracy in college was a serious issue. He has improved across the board at the NFL level.

Final notes

Fernando Mendoza

Mendoza truly did blow the doors off everybody else in the class. He finished second to Miami's Carson Beck in performance against top-50 defenses, but only by 0.2 points (minuscule). Nobody came close to him in third/fourth down situations or in the red zone. I don't know how well he's going to perform at the next level. Like most players, the organization he's a part of will play a large role there. That said, I would be extremely hesitant to use a first-round pick on any other player in this class. If I were running an NFL team and needed a QB, I'd probably tank this year and try my luck next spring.

Carson Beck

Beck is an interesting case. Alabama's Ty Simpson is the name you hear the most often as a possible first-rounder, but I think Beck is the smarter choice. He certainly has flaws of his own, but he spent his entire career playing at winning programs, and while there are blemishes on the resume (he has a knack for mind-numbing interceptions), the closer I look, the more convinced I become that Beck will have the second-best career among this class.

Diego Pavia

I was surprised by Pavia's score, but only because I felt so much of his utility came with his legs. Pavia didn't finish lower than seventh in any of the three categories and was second behind Mendoza in red-zone situations. If he were 6-foot-1 or 6-foot-2, he might be a first-round pick, but he's not. He's 5-foot-10, and that's going to matter quite a bit.

Taylen Green

If I were to bet on one player with a negative score to break through, it'd be Arkansas' Taylen Green. He's nearly 6-foot-6 and ran a 4.36 40 at the combine. As I mentioned earlier, it's the tremendous athletes who seem to break the negative score curse here. I won't be shocked to see a QB-needy team take him in the third round as a lottery ticket.

Drew Allar

Some NFL front offices will fall in love with Drew Allar because of his measurables. I know this because I did when he first showed up at Penn State. But, man, for whatever reason, the production just is not there, and it's reflected in his score. Never say never, but unless there's a level of confidence that suddenly emerges in him that I never saw at Penn State, I don't see it happening.

Fornelli's actual QB Big Board

These ratings are a nice tool to have and look at, but they're only a part of my final evaluations. Here's how the 2026 NFL QB Class stacks up on my big board.

1. Fernando Mendoza
2. Carson Beck
3. Taylen Green
4. Ty Simpson
5. Garrett Nussmeier