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NFLRecap
2026 NFL Draft: Round 1 betting surprises, including a 100-1 long shot in the top 10
TL;DR
Round 1 of the 2026 NFL Draft featured unexpected outcomes, including Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza going No. 1. Texas Tech's David Bailey was selected No. 2 by the Jets, surprising many who expected Ohio State's Arvell Reese.
Key points
- Fernando Mendoza was the first overall pick.
- David Bailey was selected No. 2 by the Jets.
- Jeremiyah Love went No. 3 to the Cardinals.
- Arvell Reese was expected to be a top pick but was not.
Fernando MendozaDavid BaileyArvell ReeseJeremiyah Love
Round 1 of the 2026 NFL Draft is in the books, and a draft in which there were thought to be plenty of potential surprises in the top 10 certainly delivered.
We knew that Indiana QB and Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza (-10000 at BetMGM) was going No. 1 overall to the Las Vegas Raiders, but after that we didn’t know much.
The betting market for the No. 2 pick had shifted almost daily leading up Thursday night between Texas Tech’s David Bailey and Ohio State’s Arvell Reese. But in the hours before the draft began, Reese pulled away at BetMGM and other sportsbooks to become a sizable favorite to go No. 2.
Many mock drafts had Bailey going No. 2, while some bettors clearly had information that Reese was going to be the pick.
Instead, the Jets took Bailey at No. 2 and the Arizona Cardinals took Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love at No. 3, setting off a chain reaction that resulted in some long-shots cashing for bettors.
Carnell Tate was a surprise going No. 4 to the Tennessee Titans as well, as Tate closed with 50-1 odds to go No. 4 overall.
The Los Angeles Rams taking Alabama QB Ty Simpson at No. 13 was also a shocker, both cashing the over 1.5 QBs in Round 1 wager, but also cashing the under on Simpson’s draft position which had been bet up from 24.5 all the way to 29.5.
“Jets going with Bailey set off a chain reaction that gave us some losers,” Christian Cipollini, BetMGM NFL trader, told Yahoo Sports on Friday morning. “Arvell Reese at No. 5 was one of our worst markets, and Love at No. 3 was also not good. Simpson going early wasn’t ideal either. Still a few markets to settle, but looking like a small loser [on the draft] right now.”
The biggest long-shot in the top 10, however, happened when the traded up from No. 9 with the to take LSU CB Mansoor Delane at No. 6. Delane closed as a 100-1 long-shot to go No. 6, as there had been very little indication that the Cleveland Browns — slated to pick at No. 6 — had any interest. Such is the difficulty of betting the NFL Draft.
Q&A
Who was the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft?
The first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft was Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza.
What were the betting odds for the No. 2 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft?
Betting odds for the No. 2 pick fluctuated, with Texas Tech's David Bailey and Ohio State's Arvell Reese being the main contenders.
Which team selected David Bailey in the 2026 NFL Draft?
The New York Jets selected David Bailey with the No. 2 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
What unexpected selections occurred in the top 3 of the 2026 NFL Draft?
The Arizona Cardinals selected Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love at No. 3, which surprised many after the Jets took David Bailey at No. 2.