2026 NFL draft: Some things one analyst knows and some he thinks he knows

The best thing about the 2026 NFL draft being over this Saturday is that the incessant speculation, click-bait headlines and “BREAKING NEWS” reports will also end.

Well, at least until someone publishes a 2027 mock draft three months before the college season begins and with clearly no idea what the first-round order will be.

Having said that, the one thing I absolutely know is that no one in the loud draft universe has anywhere close to the information on players that teams have accumulated. I’ve known that for a long time having covered the NFL for 50 years, but it was brought home by Jourdan Rodrigue of The Athletic, who had an outstanding look this week at how technology has taken root in draft rooms throughout the league.

Within the story were clicks to two scouting stories she did on the Rams two years ago that bared it for all to read. Everyone should read them to get a true perspective for what goes behind the scenes.

Don’t get me wrong. The draft evaluators like Dane Brugler of The Athletic, Mel Kiper Jr. of ESPN and Daniel Jeremiah of NFL Network (to name a few) do marvelous work.

However, they don’t have access to all the information the teams have and while their opinions are sound, they are also different and they reach their conclusions in a vacuum: They can’t possibly tailor it to how each team thinks. And believe me, teams all see things differently.

It doesn’t mean teams get everything right, but they operate with the most complete information possible. And when a player doesn’t work out, it’s not necessarily a “mistake” by the team. There are a myriad of reasons why many players don’t make a successful leap from college to the pros.

One thing we’ll never know is what the result would have been had a player been selected by a different team to begin his NFL journey. Every high pick in the draft would have been picked by someone else.

As for the information teams have, long-time general manager and Pro Football Hall of Famer Bill Polian likes to call the massive draft ecosystem the Draft Industrial Complex.

He told me recently, “What’s so pervasive today is the ignorance of the so-called experts in the media is breathtaking, No. 1. And No. 2, they fail to tell their listeners or readers that they don’t have at least 45 percent of the information that the clubs have. They don’t have the medical; they don’t have the psychological; they should not have, unfortunately, too many get it, snippets of the intellectual testing and they absolutely don’t have any read-out on the visits that the players make and the interviews that they have with the coaching staff.

“So that’s 45 percent of the grade and in the case of quarterbacks, it’s almost 60 percent of the grade. So they have no idea what we’re seeing and doing and they’re painting a false picture. It's entertainment. As long as fans recognize that it’s entertainment and not information, then everything will be fine. The problem is that some people in that business take themselves seriously and they get upset if you did something that they didn’t anticipate. Then, it’s a reach, then it’s terrible, you don’t know how to manage the draft; this GM’s terrible.”

That’s it in a nutshell.

Now, done with that rant, here are some subjects that have almost taken the oxygen out of the room in recent weeks as it pertains to the Cardinals.

Running back

I think I know that the Cardinals shouldn’t avoid running back Jeremiyah Love at third overall because there are issues with the offensive line.

In 2024, James Conner and Trey Benson averaged 4.6 yards per attempt with an offensive line that had a combined 23 missed games from right guard Will Hernandez and right tackle Jonah Williams. The balance in the offense with a healthy Kyler Murray resulted in improvement from 4-13 the season before to 8-9. Last season, Conner and Benson were injured early in the season and the running game was non-existent.

Was the 2024 line significantly better than the one projected for this year? I say no. Left guard is upgraded with the addition of Isaac Seumalo, while right tackle Elijah Wilkinson was signed as an unrestricted free agent. Many fans scoff at the Wilkinson signing, but he started all 17 games for the Atlanta Falcons last season, where running back Bijan Robinson rushed for 1,478 yards and 5.1 per carry. While blocking is obviously important, it’s also true that great runners can make a line look good.

The Cardinals are also expected to have blocking tight end Tip Reiman back following a season in which he played only four games after contributing as a rookie in 2024 to the ground game.

There are those that see Love as the best player in the draft and one who will make an immediate impact. The biggest issue is longevity and what happens when it’s time for that second contract, assuming he’s produced as expected.

For the Cardinals, Love would mean instant offense.

Offensive tackle

As for that right-tackle spot, I know the Cardinals will select one either Thursday or Friday. It won’t be at third overall, but could be if there is a trade down or in the second round where the Cardinals pick second.

There are several strong choices at the position, including Max Iheanachor of Arizona State. There appears to be a consensus of the top seven tackles that could be first- or second-round picks. So, keep an eye on Francis Mauigoa, Miami; Spencer Fano and Caleb Lomu, Utah; Monroe Freeling, Georgia; Kadyn Proctor, Alabama; and Blake Miller, Clemson.

One note: Brugler has Fano ranked ahead of Mauigoa.

Pass rusher

I know that the outside angst over Arvell Reese is misplaced. One breathless report on Tuesday claimed the Cardinals view the Ohio State product as a hybrid linebacker. Fans get in a tizzy over that debate because of the team’s poor history selecting hybrids.

Let me assure you that the Cardinals evaluate him as a pure edge rusher, just as it’s believed most teams do. Brugler, for example, has him as his No. 1 overall player on the board coming off the edge.

Yes, Reese was used in a variety of ways in college and it might take some time to settle in as a pass rusher. But, that’s what he will be because of his athleticism, speed and explosiveness with the ability to be elite.

If he lands in Arizona, celebrate it, don’t despair.

Quarterback

I think I know the Cardinals will select a quarterback in the draft, but it’s not a given it will be Ty Simpson of Alabama, even though many are convinced it will happen.

It surely might, but it won’t be early. Many have predicted the Cardinals will trade into the back of the first round. That’s possible, but they shouldn’t give up quality choices unless they have acquired some extras in an early trade down.

I do know the Cardinals like him, but sources have told me it will happen only if he falls to them and even then it’s only a maybe.

Quarterbacks often tumble in the draft because once the second and third rounds roll around, many teams want players at other positions that can contribute as rookies, even if it’s only on special teams.

The Cardinals have shown interest in project Cole Payton of North Dakota State and it will be intriguing to see in what round and where Garrett Nussmeier, LSU; Drew Allar, Penn State; Carson Beck, Miami; Taylen Green, Arkansas; and Cade Klubnik, Clemson wind up.

*Finally, I know that no matter how many picks each team ends up with, every team’s general manager will be exultant and tell the world they couldn’t believe the players selected fell to them.

Deep down, they all understand that, even with all the data they have, the draft (and all player acquisitions for that matter), is one crucial guessing game.

And they pray they guess right more than the alternative.

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This article originally appeared on Cards Wire: Some things one analyst knows and some he thinks he knows