2026 NFL mock draft: What happens if Fernando Mendoza isn't No. 1 pick?

Everyone expects the Las Vegas Raiders to select Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. But what if they didn't?

Mendoza, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, is a lock to be the top pick in this year's draft with a quarterback-needy Raiders team on the clock first. Now that Las Vegas has veteran Kirk Cousins in the building, there's at least an infinitesimally small chance the Raiders make another decision at the top of the draft.

If that were to happen, other teams' draft plans would be significantly affected. A shocking pivot from Las Vegas would cause a cascading effect down the draft order as each team would be forced to consider contingency plans outside of their expected Plan A.

USA TODAY Sports used a mock draft simulator to model its own projection of how the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft could pan out if the Raiders did not select Mendoza first overall. Here's how it went:

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1. Las Vegas Raiders – Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana

2. New York Jets – David Bailey, OLB/DE, Texas Tech

3. Arizona Cardinals – Arvell Reese, LB/DE, Ohio State

4. Tennessee Titans – Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State

5. New York Giants – Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame

6. Cleveland Browns – Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State

7. Washington Commanders – Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State

8. New Orleans Saints – Makai Lemon, WR, USC

9. Kansas City Chiefs – Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU

10. Cincinnati Bengals – Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee

11. Miami Dolphins – Francis Mauigoa, OT/G, Miami (Fla.)

12. Dallas Cowboys – Rueben Bain Jr., DE, Miami (Fla.)

13. Los Angeles Rams (from Atlanta Falcons) – Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia

14. Baltimore Ravens – Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Keldric Faulk, DE, Auburn

16. New York Jets (from Indianapolis Colts) – Omar Cooper Jr., WR, Indiana

17. Detroit Lions – Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama

18. Minnesota Vikings – Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon

19. Carolina Panthers – Spencer Fano, OT, Utah

20. Dallas Cowboys (from Green Bay Packers) – Avieon Terrell, CB, Clemson

21. Pittsburgh Steelers – Olaivavega Ioane, G, Penn State

22. Los Angeles Chargers – Akheem Mesidor, DE, Miami (Fla.)

23. Philadelphia Eagles – Max Iheanachor, OT, Arizona State

24. Cleveland Browns (from Jacksonville Jaguars) – Blake Miller, OT, Clemson

25. Chicago Bears – T.J. Parker, DE, Clemson

26. Buffalo Bills – Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State

27. San Francisco 49ers – KC Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M

28. Houston Texans – Keylan Rutledge, G, Georgia Tech

29. Kansas City Chiefs (from Rams) – Malachi Lawrence, DE, UCF

30. Miami Dolphins (from Denver Broncos) – Chris Johnson, CB, San Diego State

31. New England Patriots – Zion Young, DE/OLB, Missouri

32. Seattle Seahawks – Colton Hood, CB, Tennessee

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NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection

1. Las Vegas Raiders – Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana

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NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection

1. Las Vegas Raiders – Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana

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NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection

2. New York Jets – David Bailey, OLB/DE, Texas Tech

3 / 32

NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection

3. Arizona Cardinals – Arvell Reese, LB/DE, Ohio State

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NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection

4. Tennessee Titans – Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State

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NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection

5. New York Giants – Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame

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NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection

6. Cleveland Browns – Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State

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NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection

7. Washington Commanders – Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State

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NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection

8. New Orleans Saints – Makai Lemon, WR, USC

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NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection

9. Kansas City Chiefs – Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU

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NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection

10. Cincinnati Bengals – Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee

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NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection

11. Miami Dolphins – Francis Mauigoa, OT/G, Miami (Fla.)

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NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection

12. Dallas Cowboys – Rueben Bain Jr., DE, Miami (Fla.)

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NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection

13. Los Angeles Rams (from Atlanta Falcons) – Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia

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NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection

14. Baltimore Ravens – Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon

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NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Keldric Faulk, DE, Auburn

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NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection

16. New York Jets (from Indianapolis Colts) – Omar Cooper Jr., WR, Indiana

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NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection

17. Detroit Lions – Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama

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NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection

18. Minnesota Vikings – Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon

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NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection

19. Carolina Panthers – Spencer Fano, OT, Utah

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NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection

20. Dallas Cowboys (from Green Bay Packers) – Avieon Terrell, CB, Clemson

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NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection

21. Pittsburgh Steelers – Olaivavega Ioane, G, Penn State

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NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection

22. Los Angeles Chargers – Akheem Mesidor, DE, Miami (Fla.)

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NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection

23. Philadelphia Eagles – Max Iheanachor, OT, Arizona State

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NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection

24. Cleveland Browns (from Jacksonville Jaguars) – Blake Miller, OT, Clemson

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NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection

25. Chicago Bears – T.J. Parker, DE, Clemson

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NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection

26. Buffalo Bills – Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State

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NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection

27. San Francisco 49ers – KC Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M

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NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection

28. Houston Texans – Keylan Rutledge, G, Georgia Tech

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NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection

29. Kansas City Chiefs (from Rams) – Malachi Lawrence, DE, UCF

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NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection

30. Miami Dolphins (from Denver Broncos) – Chris Johnson, CB, San Diego State

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NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection

31. New England Patriots – Zion Young, DE/OLB, Missouri

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NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection

32. Seattle Seahawks – Colton Hood, CB, Tennessee

NFL mock draft simulator: What if Fernando Mendoza is not No. 1 pick?

1. Las Vegas Raiders: OT Francis Mauigoa, Miami (Fla.)

This is where it all begins. Outside of an obvious need for a future franchise quarterback, the Raiders need to build up their offensive line to protect Cousins in 2026 and potentially beyond. Mauigoa is one of the top offensive line prospects in the 2026 class. Given the Raiders don't need another edge rusher with Maxx Crosby still in the building, Las Vegas pivots to a different high-value position of need.

2. New York Jets: QB Fernando Mendoza, Indiana

The Jets, to most analysts, are expected to select a top edge rusher with the second pick in the draft. That plan goes straight out the window if Mendoza somehow makes it to the No. 2 pick. New York's plan to have returning veteran Geno Smith lead the team to the promised land will remain a plan to have Smith lead them... over the bridge to the promised land of eventual starts from Mendoza.

3. Arizona Cardinals: Edge David Bailey, Texas Tech

Things normalize a bit with the Cardinals selecting their top edge rushing prospect at No. 3. In this case, it's Bailey, who has risen up draft boards of late.

4. Tennessee Titans: WR Carnell Tate, Ohio State

Tennessee fills a position of need with the No. 4 pick in this simulation, but not the one most experts are expecting. It's unclear what the simulator was seeking here, but in the chaos of Mendoza's "fall" to No. 2, perhaps it overlooked Ohio State edge rusher Arvell Reese's availability. Instead, the Titans get a wideout who can become a new No. 1 target for second-year quarterback Cam Ward.

5. New York Giants: Edge Rueben Bain Jr., Miami (Fla.)

Panic city. The Giants are apparently so flustered by the Raiders' and Jets' pivots they take a complete left turn and take a player that doesn't fit one of their biggest needs. Not only does Big Blue have a strong pass-rush tandem already on the team with Brian Burns and last year's first-rounder, Abdul Carter, but Bain isn't even the top edge rusher still on the board here. Arvell Reese's fall continues in favor of a Miami (Fla.) product with arm-length and off-field concerns.

6. Cleveland Browns: CB Mansoor Delane, LSU

Offensive tackle and wide receiver appear to be bigger needs for Cleveland. Cornerback is still a position that could use an upgrade for the Browns with Denzel Ward nearing the end of his contract. With Delane, the Browns get the No. 1 cornerback off the board for new DC Mike Rutenberg's defense.

7. Washington Commanders: Edge Arvell Reese, Washington Commanders

At last, Reese's slide stops. Any team in the first six picks – outside of, perhaps, the Giants – could have benefited greatly from adding one of the class's top pass-rushers to the defense. Instead, they all passed for one reason or another (the Mendoza chaos?) and he lands in the nation's capital. Reese's slide gives Washington another dominating first-round edge rusher out of Ohio State, six years after Chase Young, to join Dan Quinn's defense.

8. New Orleans Saints: WR Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State

New Orleans did not get lost in the chaos as many other teams seemed to have done early. Tyson is one of the best receivers in this year's draft class, and he gives second-year quarterback Tyler Shough another outstanding target alongside Chris Olave.

9. Kansas City Chiefs: OT Monroe Freeling, Georgia

The Chiefs have many needs in this draft after missing the playoffs in 2025. Offensive tackle ranks far down on that list. Wide receiver, edge rusher and cornerback all rank higher, but alas, the simulator believes Brett Veach is another executive who gets lost in the chaos.

10. Cincinnati Bengals: Mock trade – Carolina Panthers draft S Caleb Downs, Ohio State

The Bengals need to improve their defense, but they could also use more top-100 picks in this draft to help them do so. They trade down with the Panthers in this simulation, and Carolina's offseason remains among the best in the league. After filling other defensive needs with top free agents like Devin Lloyd and Jaelan Phillips, the Panthers trade up to snag Downs, one of the best pure athletes in this class, to fill yet another need on defense.

11. Miami Dolphins: OT Caleb Lomu, Utah

Once again, a team in this simulation drafts a position of need while leaving other, potentially high-priority positions, on the back burner. Lomu is an excellent tackle prospect, and Miami could use the help in building up its offensive line in front of new quarterback Malik Willis. But, boy, do the Dolphins need wide receiver and cornerback help a lot more.

12. Dallas Cowboys: LB Sonny Styles, Ohio State

Lost in all of the chaos was another shocking fall down draft boards (another will be addressed in a couple of picks). Sonny Styles proved himself to be one of the best athletes in the draft class with his performance at the scouting combine in February and quickly rose to top-10 pick status if not top-five. In this simulation, he instead slides to the Cowboys, who lock up one of the best defensive prospects in the class and a versatile linebacker that would vastly improve their defense.

13. Los Angeles Rams (from Atlanta Falcons): WR Makai Lemon, Southern California

Leave it to general manager Les Snead to stay calm amidst a 12-pick run of unpredictability. The Rams keep their proverbial eye on the ball and draft one of the class's top receivers and an eventual replacement for veteran wideout Davante Adams.

14. Baltimore Ravens: RB Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame

It would be so classically Eric DeCosta to see an outstanding athlete slide down a draft board because of perceived positional value and stop his slide. Even though running back is not an immediate need for the Ravens with Derrick Henry still in the building, Love immediately gives Baltimore the best two-headed backfield in the NFL and gives the team a plan for a Henry-less future. Will the rushing production still suffer anyway because of the remaining need for offensive line help that DeCosta is foregoing in this scenario? Maybe. But those questions could be answered in later rounds.

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Edge Keldric Faulk, Auburn

With Bailey, Bain, and Reese off the board, the Buccaneers fill their top position of need with one of the best edge-rushing prospects still available. Like the Rams before them, Tampa Bay keeps its focus to fill a clear position of need with Faulk.

16. New York Jets (from Indianapolis Colts): WR Omar Cooper Jr., Indiana

New York would be over the moon if the draft board fell this way. Not only does Mendoza inexplicably make it to the Jets' first pick at No. 2 overall, but Cooper – Mendoza's favorite target at Indiana last year – also lands with Gang Green. Regardless of whether the Jets get Mendoza or not, the Jets desperately need help at wide receiver, and Cooper is a popular fit here at 16.

17. Detroit Lions: S Dillon Thieneman, Oregon

Offensive tackle is a much more pressing need for the Lions with Taylor Decker's surprising release request, but maybe GM Brad Holmes sees all of the chaos from Mendoza's fall to 2 and decides to create more. Thieneman is the most popular pick for the Vikings at 18 among draft experts across the web. With Brian Branch set to hit free agency after 2026, Thieneman provides an excellent contingency plan as one of the best safeties in the draft. Screwing over a division rival that also needs a safety is icing on the cake.

18. Minnesota Vikings: CB Jermod McCoy, Tennessee

Sniped by Holmes and the Lions at 17, the Vikings pivot to address another position of need in the secondary. Should the Vikings have beefed up their trenches instead after missing out on Thieneman? Probably. But let's imagine, in this chaotic simulation, that interim GM Rob Brzezinski was fixated on helping the secondary. McCoy would still be a helpful addition.

19. Carolina Panthers: Mock trade – Bengals draft DT Peter Woods, Clemson

What a win-win for the Panthers and Bengals in this trade scenario. Carolina moved up to get the top safety in Downs at pick 10, and Cincinnati moves back, gets more picks and still hits on one of its biggest positions of need with one of the top prospects at that position.

20. Dallas Cowboys (from Green Bay Packers): Mock trade – Browns draft OT Spencer Fano, Utah

Cleveland has a lot of work to do in this year's draft. In this sim, Browns GM Andrew Berry trades up four picks to select another player at a premium position to fill out Cleveland's offensive line after taking a cornerback earlier. That gives [insert Browns 2026 starting quarterback here] the extra protection he needs to succeed in 2026. Spoiler alert: Cleveland also trades back up into the first round to claim that No. 24 pick that was originally Jacksonville's. More on that later.

21. Pittsburgh Steelers: Mock trade – Chargers draft OG Olaivavega Ioane, Penn State

The first of two "one-pick-up" trades in this simulator sees Los Angeles bolster its interior offensive line. Ioane is considered to be the best true guard in this year's class and gives quarterback Justin Herbert the interior protection he so sorely (literally) missed in 2025.

22. Los Angeles Chargers: Mock trade – Steelers draft DT Christen Miller, Georgia

Pittsburgh could have traded back with a team that doesn't need a quarterback to stay virtually in the same spot and take their own QB of the future. Instead, perhaps Omar Khan forgets his team's other biggest needs in this Night Of Chaos, and goes defensive line.

23. Philadelphia Eagles: OT Kadyn Proctor, Alabama

Proctor is a left tackle by trade, but perhaps GM Howie Roseman is planning ahead for an eventual Lane Johnson retirement? Johnson is back in 2026, so Proctor could get a full season of work on the right side, preparing to take over when the veteran hangs them up.

24. Cleveland Browns (originally from Jacksonville Jaguars): WR KC Concepcion, Texas A&M

Cowboys GM Jerry Jones would be thrilled if he poached several future Browns picks, given Cleveland's decision to trade up with Dallas twice. But it's also hard to count the moves against Cleveland GM Andrew Berry too much if he's able to fill three premium positions of need: cornerback at 6, offensive tackle at 20 and wide receiver at 24.

25. Chicago Bears: Mock trade – Buffalo Bills select Edge Akheem Mesidor, Miami (Fla.)

The second "one-pick-up" trade. Like other teams before them, the Bills keep their eyes on the prize and take a player at their top position of need. Mesidor would join Buffalo's pass-rush rotation alongside Greg Rousseau and free agent signing Bradley Chubb.

26. Buffalo Bills: Mock trade – Bears select Edge Zion Young, Missouri

While Chicago could use safety help with so many departures there in free agency, as well as offensive line assistance with the uncertainty surrounding Ozzy Trapilo's injury, edge rusher is also a valid area of concern and need. ESPN reported that Young is a "popular name in Chicago," and GM Ryan Poles might pull the trigger on a young pass-rusher that fits DC Dennis Allen's scheme.

27. San Francisco 49ers: OT Max Iheanachor, Arizona State

The chaos of the early picks largely seems to have passed. The 49ers select Trent Williams' heir apparent with their first-round pick here. Iheanachor could still use a bit more seasoning before he's fully ready to be a starter, and who better for him to learn from than Williams, one of the game's top left tackles.

28. Houston Texans: CB Brandon Cisse, South Carolina

Offensive line is a far greater need in Houston, but reinforcing the Texans' outstanding defense even further? That could be the plan for general manager Nick Caserio

29. Kansas City Chiefs (from Rams): TE Kenyon Sadiq, Oregon

This still doesn't address the need for an edge rusher or cornerback that Kansas City passed on at 9 earlier in this simulation. But at least Sadiq gives the Chiefs a clear future at tight end with Travis Kelce seemingly headed for retirement in the not-so-distant future.

30. Miami Dolphins (from Denver Broncos): CB Colton Hood, Tennessee

Miami passed on taking Hood's teammate, Jermod McCoy, earlier, but they use their second first-round pick to land a cornerback. It's one of the Dolphins' biggest positions of need, though wide receiver would still remain a priority entering Days 2 and 3 of the draft.

31. New England Patriots: Mock trade – Lions select OT Blake Miller, Clemson

Detroit opted not to draft an offensive tackle earlier in the first round by taking Thieneman, a safety, at 17. The Lions make sure to address that major position of need before the night is over by trading back up into the first round to take Miller.

32. Seattle Seahawks: WR Denzel Boston, Washington

Running back could be a better fit here, as could cornerback. But Boston would give Seattle another excellent young wideout to pair with Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The Seahawks utilized Rashid Shaheed as more of a gadget player/return man after trading for him last season, and Cooper Kupp will be 33 when next season begins.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 2026 NFL mock draft simulator: What if Fernando Mendoza isn't top pick?