2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds: Best bets for front-runner, top value picks, sleepers

Mendoza might not play very much, so long as Cousins isn't a complete wreck. The Raiders' wide receiver room might be the worst in the NFL, and there's only so much Brock Bowers, as excellent as he is, can do to help. We'll stay away from Mendoza for now.

The three receivers in this tier are all intriguing. Tyson is incredibly talented but has durability concerns. Maybe I'm a little risk-averse in not taking him, but the bigger issue with his candidacy is the presence of Chris Olave, fresh off a 100-catch, 1,163-yard, nine-touchdown season. The last two wide receivers to win Offensive Rookie of the Year -- Tetairoa McMillan (2025) and Garrett Wilson (2022) -- entered situations where they were clearly and obviously the top pass catcher on their respective teams the moment they were drafted. In 2021, Ja'Marr Chase joined a team that already had Tee Higgins, but Chase is a different level of prospect than any of the three top wide receivers this year.

Lemon has a similar problem with DeVonta Smith, but he also has a quarterback/offense problem, too. Jalen Hurts has never shown a proclivity to throw over the middle, much less short and over the middle. That's where Lemon does some of his best work. The Eagles hiring Sean Mannion indicates they want more of those throws, but there are questions about how Hurts will fare. Also, Philadelphia has been one of the run-heaviest teams in the NFL with Hurts.

So we land on Tate, and not only via process of elimination. Tate is exactly what the Titans and Cam Ward needed; whether they needed to use the No. 4 to acquire that skill set is up for debate, but not in this exercise. Tate is a ready-made pro, a player who runs good routes, presents a big catch radius and strong hands and brings physicality. He can win downfield, intermediate and short. And most importantly, he brings a level of simple professionalism to Tennessee. He will be in the right places at the right times.

For awards purposes, Tate is an immediate top option -- a good start. The counting numbers should be there. There's a world where the Titans make a jump -- Robert Saleh should be a better coach his second time around, at least better than Brian Callahan -- and Tate is a leading face of that improvement. In a year with a bad quarterback class and a top running back in a tough spot, Tate is the ideal pick, and with solid value too.

The next tier

• Carson Beck (+1500)
• Omar Cooper Jr., Kenyon Sadiq (+1800)
• KC Concepcion, Denzel Boston (+2500)
• Kaelon Black, Germie Bernard, Antonio Williams (+3000)

Best bet: Williams (+3000)

The fact that there's only one running back -- one who wasn't even invited to the combine -- in this tier speaks to the class's poor depth at that position.

It's hard to parse out a good option here, regardless of position. Beck should see some snaps this year simply because the Cardinals used a third-round pick on him and may want to see what they have in him, but right now he's behind both Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew. No player this millennium has won OROY when playing fewer than 12 games, and the player who won it with 12 -- Odell Beckham Jr. -- had one of the greatest rookie seasons ever. We can move past Beck quickly.

Sadiq and Cooper are next, though Wilson's presence tempers some expectations there. By the way, no tight end has ever won OROY.

There's some merit to considering Cooper, Concepcion and Boston, and I have Concepcion at the top of that group. I certainly understand the trepidation of liking any Browns pass catcher considering who's throwing them the ball, and Harold Fannin Jr. will see plenty of targets. But there's little blocking Concepcion from earning a big role at wide receiver, similar to how Fannin did at tight end. Are Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman -- both 2027 free agents -- really going to box out Concepcion and Boston? Maybe initially, but not for long.

Concepcion has produced from the moment he stepped on a college football field. He adds value as a punt returner, too. There's a strong argument to be made for him.

But in terms of both value and winning the award -- there's no money to be made for a player just receiving a few votes -- Williams earns the nod. Williams was a projected first-round pick in many "way-too-early" 2026 mock drafts before a down 2025 season. That was a theme across a disappointing Clemson team. Given the state of the Commanders' receiving room, Williams will have the opportunity to not only see the field immediately but get a significant target share from Jayden Daniels. Williams is a willing blocker, too. Washington pass catchers saw major leaps in 2024, when Daniels was healthy. If Daniels is healthy again, Williams could emerge with strong numbers.

The sleepers

Pick: Jonah Coleman (+5000)

There were slim pickings in the category above, so it gets really barren here. But of all the players with +3000 odds or worse, Coleman could end up making the biggest immediate impact. He's a downhill thumper (5'8" and 220 pounds, per the Broncos' website) who scored 17 touchdowns in his final collegiate season. J.K. Dobbins has played in just 24 of a possible 51 games over the past three seasons. R.J. Harvey scored 12 touchdowns as a rookie but was one of the NFL's worst players in terms of rushing yards over expected, and his 3.7 yards per carry was well below average, too. Coleman will run and pass block in a no-nonsense manner, which could endear him to Sean Payton early.

At the end of the day, he's +5000 to win the award. Sprinkle and hope.

Other players in this tier to consider include:

• Malachi Fields (+4000)
• Drew Allar (+5000)
• Chris Bell (+7500)