2026 NFL Rookie Quarterback Dynasty Rankings: Fernando Mendoza stands tall, Diego Pavia remains underrated

My rookie tight end rankings are already out and we’re now on to quarterbacks. At QB in particular, the difference between fantasy value and real-life value can be considerable. In general, the long-term NFL success of a quarterback translates to strong dynasty fantasy football value, but something like rushing production can cause a split between those two realities.

These rankings are dynasty-focused, with a slightly larger emphasis on rushing than if they were only meant for actual NFL evaluation.

Fernando Mendoza, Indiana

Mendoza played two uneventful seasons at Cal, throwing for 30 touchdowns and 16 interceptions at a pedestrian 7.5 yards per attempt. I won’t reference these seasons all that much because they’re not the reason Mendoza will be drafted first overall. Turning to his lone season at Indiana, Mendoza tossed 41 scores with just six interceptions. He amassed 3,535 yards with a 90.7 PFF passing grade. That was the second-best mark in the country. Mendoza also earned a top-five mark in EPA per play at .38. His EPA/play isn’t otherworldly, but it does put him in line with several other successful first-round picks, most recently Caleb Williams, Jaxson Dart, and Bo Nix.

Mendoza’s calling card is his pinpoint accuracy. Pro Football Focus charted 69 percent of his throws as accurate and he earned a 19.4 percent “accurate plus” rate. Those marks rank eighth and 11th out of 111 individual seasons from first-round quarterbacks since 2012. In an effort to remove scheme from the evaluation, we can also pull out some common QB helpers and look at the remaining throws. After removing play-action, RPO, screens, and pressured dropbacks — we’ll come back to this, but pressure stats aren’t awfully stable — we get “NFL Throws.” Among the same group of quarterbacks (with a 50-attempt threshold), Mendoza’s 2025 ranks sixth in PFF passing grade and fifth in accurate throw rate. One final passing split I find particularly valuable is deep throwing. His deep throw rate of 16.5 percent was below average and his 93.5 passing grade ranked just 35th out of just over 100 qualified seasons. Both his accurate and accurate plus rates were top-20. As a passer, the Jared Goff comparison gets tossed around a lot for Mendoza. That checks out, per the data, though my untrained eye says Mendoza has a notable edge in arm strength. His 6’5/236 frame would also suggest an ability to put more zip on throws.

Mendoza isn’t anything special as a runner, but he did manage 276 yards and seven scores before stripping out sack yardage lost. He’s also unfazed by a collapsing pocket, recording a top-five passing grade under pressure in 2025. Mendoza is arguably too ambivalent to pressure, as evidenced by his ugly 18.6 percent pressure-to-sack rate. Mendoza is athletic enough to move around the pocket better, but that’s a part of his game that will need to improve in the pros.

Mendoza’s 2025 is somewhat similar to Cam Ward’s 2024, but the latter was in his fifth collegiate season and faced far weaker competition in the ACC than Mendoza did in the BIG 10. I would comfortably rank him ahead of Ward as a prospect, but he’s far from bulletproof. J.J. McCarthy also came up as a comparison when sifting through the data, largely based on the combination of high efficiency and extremely low volume in his final season. Among recent No. 1 picks, I would place Mendoza ahead of Ward and Bryce Young and on par with Caleb Williams. Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence were comfortably ahead of Mendoza as prospects.

Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt

This ranking is going to seem like rage bait. Pavia is an undersized passer without the strong pedigree that Ty Simpson brings to the table. Simpson has a shot at going in the first round. Pavia will be lucky to hear his name called on Day Two. Hear me out. Pavia learned on the fly early in his career while Simpson spent most of his college time learning as a backup. That should give Simpson a massive advantage when looking at the career-long data of both players. Despite that statistical edge, Pavia’s career numbers blow Simpson’s out of the water.

That is in part due to his elite final season. In 2025, Pavia averaged .42 EPA per dropback with a 55.7% success rate. Those numbers are rather similar to the final seasons of Jaxson Dart and Bo Nix.

Pavia’s mobility is the ultimate difference-maker. It shows up in his pressure-to-sack-rate — shown in the above table — of 11.8 percent. When his line didn’t hold up, Pavia rarely gave up the big loss. Simpson, on the other hand, doesn’t have the athleticism to elude defenders and was taken down when pressured at an alarming rate. As expected, Pavia was an elite scrambler. He added 25.17 EPA on scrambles in 2025, the second-best mark in the class. After removing sack yardage, Pavia rushed for just over 1,000 yards last year and scored 10 touchdowns on the ground. If Pavia sneaks into Day Two of the draft and Ty Simpson doesn’t go in the first round, I will keep this order in my post-draft ranks.

Ty Simpson, Alabama

I used Simpson as a benchmark of Pavia to clear because the two are my favorite contenders for the QB2 spot. It’s time to zero in on Simpson himself. He was a one-year starter at Bama, playing behind Bryce Young and Jalen Milroe. Simpson finally got his shot and acquitted himself well with 3,567 yards, 28 scores, and five interceptions. He ranked 43rd in EPA per dropback and 61st in PFF offensive grade. Simpson’s middling metrics largely stem from his lack of rushing output and a propensity for taking sacks. Simpson lost the fifth-most EPA to sacks in 2025 and ran for just 282 yards after removing sack yardage lost. He’s not a statue, but these are notable deficiencies in his game.

From the pocket, Simpson gets more love from the film people than the data. For his career, Simpson ranks bottom-five out of 40 qualified first-round (or future first-round) quarterbacks in accurate and accurate plus rate on “NFL Throws”. Looking at deep passing does him no favors either. Out of roughly the same cohort of quarterbacks, Simpson’s passing grade, YPA, and accurate throw rate are all below average. The same is true of his 13 percent deep throw rate.

Per the scouts, Simpson is a great processor, particularly before the snap. And while his passing data wasn’t good for a first-round pick, it doesn’t make him an outlier among Day One passers. He ultimately compared closely to Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky in my data, but Justin Herbert also shared some similarities, so there is hope here.

Cole Payton, North Dakota State

Payton was a one-year FCS starter with a grand total of 282 career pass attempts. He has two aces up his sleeve. The first is his deep ball. Payton threw 20+ yards downfield on 24.7 percent of his throws, a rate that was only bested by two other quarterbacks with 50 such attempts. He led all D1 passers in completion rate (61.4 percent) and YPA (21.4) with the third-highest accurate throw rate (52.8 percent) on deep shots. This propelled him to 2,719 yards and 16 scores at a staggering 12.1 yards per attempt. That would be the FBS record.

His second calling card is his rushing ability. Payton ran for 777 yards and 13 scores in his final season. He previously hit 615 yards and 13 scores during a previous season in which he was not even the starter. North Dakota State is a power run offense where everyone gets a chance to carry the ball, even the QB2. Payton was even credited with a start at tailback in 2024. At the combine, Payton confirmed his athletic bona fides with 4.56 Forty at 6’3/232. For reference, Payton is taller, heavier, and faster than Jalen Hurts.

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Beyond those two attributes, Payton is a work in progress. He struggled with NFL Throws and has a slow windup, undercutting what should be a great arm. Payton also played in an offense that didn’t ask him to stand in the pocket and work through reads at the same rate as other NFL hopefuls. This bet is ultimately similar to Riley Leonard from last year’s draft, but Payton’s passing numbers and arm strength far outpace what Leonard brought to the table.

Taylen Green, Arkansas

Let’s get this out of the way. Green is probably not a great passer. He earned PFF’s No. 37 passing grade in 2025, which was his fifth season and fourth as a starter. At 6’6/227, Green has more than enough arm strength to make all of the throws. He simply lacks the processing speed and decision-making to let his arm do the work. His 5.2 percent turnover-worthy play rate was the fifth-highest in the country last year. He only got worse under pressure, ranking 153rd in PFF passing grade when defenses rattled him. Green was better from a clean pocket, ranking inside the top 50 quarterbacks in passing grade with a top-15 mark in YPA. While not a prolific sack-taker, Green’s average time to throw of 3.2 seconds is the longest in the class. That, too, could be an issue for him in the pros.

Moving on to the reason Green made this list: his rushing. Green’s 92.2 PFF rushing grade is the second-best mark for a quarterback with at least 300 pass attempts of the past decade, trailing only Jayden Daniels. He generated the third-most EPA on designed carries in the country in 2025. After removing yards lost on sacks, Green ran for 994 yards at 8.8 yards per carry. He then went on to run and jump out of the building in Indianapolis. He set the QB record in three different measurables:

• 40-yard dash: 4.36 seconds
• Vertical jump 43.5”
• Broad jump: 11’2”

With the caveat that he didn’t participate in the agility drills, Green is one of the most athletic quarterbacks to ever enter the league.

Green is an electric athlete with a lot of bad habits as a passer. For me, his closest comparable player is Malik Willis. The Liberty quarterback was a disaster in a bad situation with the Titans. He then thrived when the Packers managed to hide his flaws and accentuate his strengths. If an NFL team can do that for Green, I could see him making some quality starts in the pros.

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Drew Allar, Penn State

Per PFF’s numbers, Allar peaked in his first season as a starter. He was graded as their No. 31 passer and earned a top-25 overall grade because of his rushing. His charting numbers fell in 2024, but Allar’s efficiency actually skyrocketed. Allar ranked a stunning fourth in EPA per play, with the improvement coming from an extra 100 rushing yards and two scores on the ground, plus a 1.6 YPA boost through the air. While it would be nice for his charting numbers and efficiency metrics to line up, he had a solid body of work through two seasons. The wheels then came all the way off in 2025. Allar’s 5.1 percent big-time throw rate from the previous season was cut in half to 2.5 percent. He had more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws. In his seventh game of the year, Allar suffered a season-ending broken ankle.

As a former five-star recruit with a 6’5/228 frame, Allar looks the part of an NFL quarterback. He flashed that type of ceiling several times as a starter but never put it all together. Unlike some of the other Day Two hopefuls in this class, Allar isn’t a point guard type. He rarely looks to be in rhythm for long stretches of time and routinely faded as the year went on, even in his good seasons. His body of work is limited and scouts see him as a mixed bag, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he does develop into a low-end NFL starter.

Carson Beck, Miami

Beck was a backup for three seasons at Georgia before taking over the starting role for two years. He was run out of town after two seasons and landed in Miami where he led the Canes to a National Championship appearance. Despite him finding more success in the win-loss column at The U, Beck’s passing grade fell for the second straight year. The same is true of his overall efficiency. He averaged an impressive .49 EPA per play during his first season as a starter. That fell to .25 in 2024 and dipped a fraction of a point lower in his final season.

One notable thing I found in Lance Zierlein’s write-up of Beck was that his velocity seemingly dipped in 2025 after undergoing UCL surgery near the end of the 2024 season. Beck stands at 6’5/233 and should have no issues with arm strength. But, just as Zierlein points out, Beck earned 91.5 and 94.5 passing grades on deep throws in his two starting seasons at Georgia. That plummeted to 78.6 at Miami.

Beck executed a point guard role well early on as a Bulldog, but slowly faded over the following years. He has prototypical NFL size, but the arm strength is officially a concern. Beck also adds little with his legs and is weak when pressured. I see him as a long-term QB2 under the right circumstances.

Garrett Nussmeier, LSU

Nussmeier broke out in 2024 with over 4,000 passing yards and 29 scores. He earned a top-20 PFF passing grade with top-40 marks in success rate and EPA per play. An elite, 9.8 percent pressure-to-sack rate certainly helped. Nussmeier’s stock was on the rise heading into his final season before injuries sapped his potential — and draft capital — in 2025. He dealt with a core issue that caused him pain all year on top of an eventual knee injury. Nussmeier appeared in nine games and threw for 1,927 yards and 12 scores. He averaged almost 100 fewer yards per game and ranked 74th in EPA per play. Nussmeier also converted 19 percent of his pressures into sacks, a rate nearly double that of his previous season. This may be the most obvious tell from his various injuries, especially because the film watchers generally like his pocket movement.

Even if you throw out his final season, Nussmeier’s 2024 was good, but far from great. He’s also on the smaller side at 6’2/203 and has a notable injury history. It’s likely that a team takes a shot on developing him into a plus backup, but I’m not sure Nussmeier has the elite play or the physical attributes that typically underpin a long-term starter.