2026 NFL Schedule: Fantasy football winners and losers

The 2026 NFL schedule is here! Fantasy football analyst Joel Smyth goes over the aftermath, breaking down some winners and losers. What teams and players were most affected by the schedule drop?

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And remember: if it’s early on in the season, and some top teams and fantasy assets are not performing up to standard, it’s likely not their fault — it's the schedules.

Early Season Impacts

Jaguars Early Season Offense

• Week 1: CLE
• Week 2: at DEN
• Week 3: NE
• Week 4: at CIN
• Week 5: PHI (London)
• Week 6: HOU (London)
• Week 7: BYE

Jacksonville starts off the first six games before the bye week in difficult fashion. The one bright spot is a much-improved Cincinnati defense on the road. The first month is well below average, but the Week 5 and Week 6 matchups versus top-five defenses, both across the Atlantic Ocean, are a brutal way to start the year.

Houston Defense Not Worth It?

• Week 1: BUF
• Week 2: CIN
• Week 3: at IND
• Week 4: DAL
• Week 15: JAX
• Week 16: at PHI
• Week 17: at GB

Houston’s defense finished with the second-most fantasy points in 2025 and continued to add to its strength in the 2026 NFL Draft. The issue with drafting them in fantasy is that you may not be confident in using them early. The Texans may be top-12 against this rough first month and a tough fantasy playoff schedule, but are they worth drafting as a top-two D/ST?

Giants Offense Smooth Start?

• Week 1: DAL
• Week 2: at LAR
• Week 3: TEN
• Week 4: ARI
• Week 5: at WAS

Jaxson Dart may not have Malik Nabers early as he adjusts to a new offense. A weaker stretch to begin the season can be of huge help for the sophomore QB.

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Looking ahead should be done with caution, but preparing ahead is still important. It’s make-or-break time — who’s most impacted by their Week 15-17 schedule?

Fantasy Playoff Boosts and Declines

Nice Bump for New Orleans

• Week 15: at TB
• Week 16: ARI
• Week 17: at ATL

Not many teams have an extremely easy path on paper early on, but for May, New Orleans’ three-game stretch gives its offense above-average matchups in each.

Eagles’ Tough Playoff Stretch

• Week 15: SEA
• Week 16: HOU
• Week 17: at SF

The Eagles’ schedule is one of the best for a fantasy offense … through 14 weeks. Then they have to face off against the top-two defenses in the NFL.

Packers in the Cold

• Week 15: BUF
• Week 16: at CHI
• Week 17: HOU

Houston in the championship is the worst part, but on the road in Chicago can be tough in December and Buffalo should be even more difficult.

49ers Offense Gets No Break

• Week 15: at LAC
• Week 16: at KC
• Week 17: PHI

If you play in Week 18, the Niners get the Cardinals. Outside of that, the schedule is difficult down the stretch, with the “best” matchup being on the road against Kansas City in December.

Good Luck, Breece Hall

• Week 15: DEN
• Week 16: NE
• Week 17: MIN

Breece Hall is not known to be a league-winner, given the circumstances of his team. That’ll likely continue when it comes to the fantasy playoffs.

Stars with Juicy Championship Matchups

• QB Josh Allen vs. MIA
• RB Ashton Jeanty at ARI WR
• Ja’Marr Chase vs. BAL (29.7 PPG in last 4 vs BAL)
• WR Malik Nabers at DAL
• WR Justin Jefferson at NYJ

Starts with Rough Championship Pulls

• QB Drake Maye vs. DEN
• RB Christian McCaffrey vs. PHI
• RB Bucky Irving vs. LAR
• RB Josh Jacobs vs. HOU
• WR Tetairoa McMillan vs. SEA

Week 18 Winners & Losers

• Winners: Los Angeles Rams (vs SEA), Tennessee Titans (at HOU), New York Giants (vs PHI)
• Losers: San Francisco 49ers (at ARI), Buffalo Bills (vs NYJ), New England Patriots (vs MIA)

Defense to Roster Early: Los Angeles Chargers

• Week 1: ARI
• Week 2: LV

Top Streaming QB to Roster Early: Baker Mayfield

• Week 1: at CIN
• Week 2: CLE (Revenge game)

2026 First & Last Bye Weeks

• Week 5: Kansas City Chiefs, Carolina Panthers
• Week 14: Dallas Cowboys, Arizona Cardinals

Primetime Games

• 7 – Rams (T-most all time)
• 6 – Bills, Chiefs, Packers & Seahawks
• 1 – Browns, Colts & Saints

Strength of Schedule Winners/Losers

Arizona Garbage Time

Jacoby Brissett was a QB1 in every start he made in 2025, and yet, he ranked 23rd in fantasy points per dropback. The Cardinals were a fantasy anomaly in 2025, and anomalies, by definition, don’t often repeat. However, the garbage time and fantasy-friendly game scripts could return again in 2026 thanks to the NFL schedule.

It may be under a new quarterback with a new head coach, but the passing volume could still stay close if the schedule plays out as badly as we think.

What games will the Cardinals be projected to win? Maybe versus the New York Jets? The Cardinals have brutal matchups all season versus the best of the best, with the six divisional games being the worst of it. Players like Trey McBride, who became the TE1 on top-tier volume, have hope of repeating rather than regressing. After running the most routes in the NFL last season, including over 150 more than the next TE, I am cautious to bank on McBride’s volume being the same as it was in 2025, but a hard schedule for Arizona means a positive fantasy schedule for McBride managers.

The same goes for Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr. When all three pass catchers were available, very rarely were all three producing. They need as many cheap fantasy points and volume as they can get with so much talent to compete with.

The fantasy playoffs, however, are by far the easiest for Arizona. After playing non-stop top competition through 13 weeks, the Cardinals have the Jets in Week 15, Saints in Week 16, and Raiders in Week 17. This all comes after a Week 14 bye.

Winner – Quinshon Judkins

The Browns still need some work before becoming a playoff team, but the schedule does them some favors after an active offseason. In 2025, Judkins fantasy PPG dropped by 3.6 in the games Cleveland lost by 14+ points, which was about half the contests. The Browns RB’s value comes on the ground with upside from the red-zone role, not as much as a passing down back in trailing situations. The talent is there, but any TD-dependent RB on a team ranked 30th in red-zone trips isn’t set up for success. Now, a new coach arrives in Todd Monken, the offensive line has been completely changed and more talent on offense as a whole can help with the easiest schedule in the NFL.

Nobody has an easier schedule in 2026 when looking at opponents’ winning percentages from 2025. It’s not perfectly accurate in predicting how hard the schedule will ultimately be, but the extremes tend to stay on that side. Instead of facing off versus a tougher NFC North division as in 2025, the Browns will play an easier NFC South in the coming year, with other positive matchups against the New York Jets, Tennessee Titans and Las Vegas Raiders.

A difference of opponent win percentage from 0.484 in 2025 to 0.429 in 2026 is a nice boost for the Browns’ breakout running back.