2026 NFL schedule: Who has the most difficult and easiest strength of schedule this season?

Last season’s records don’t always accurately reflect how teams change over the offseason. Teams that were bad last season might have changed coaches or added a lot of talent through free agency or the draft. The Titans and Raiders are two good examples for this season. A new way of looking at strength of schedule was developed by Warren Sharp of SharpFootballAnalysis.com, and it looks at the win totals set by bookmakers of all 17 opponents for each team. Last season the Raiders won three games and this season they are projected for 5.5 wins by oddsmakers; that roster improvement is reflected in Sharp’s rankings.

Using the win total metric, the Browns have the fourth-easiest schedule. It’s the Detroit Lions who jump up to the easiest schedule in the NFL. They’re followed by the Saints and Bengals, who had the same spots in easiest schedules when using last year’s records, then there’s a significant gap to the Browns.

That’s a pretty big deal for the Lions, who missed the playoffs last season. Playing the easiest schedule in the NFL last season wasn’t the only reason the Patriots improved 10 wins from the season before, but it certainly helped.

Which team has the toughest schedule?

The Chicago Bears are a regression candidate this season, and the schedule is a reason. Using last season’s records, the Bears have the toughest schedule in the NFL. The combined 2025 record of this season’s opponents is .550. The schedule is easier using sportsbooks’ win totals as a guide, as Chicago drops to sixth toughest. Regardless of method, it will be tougher than last season.

On paper, Caleb Williams and the Bears face a tougher schedule than they did in 2025. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

(Michael Reaves via Getty Images)

The Arizona Cardinals are up against it again when it comes to the schedule. Last season the Cardinals had the toughest schedule in the NFL, according to DVOA. This season the Cardinals are projected to have the toughest schedule using win totals. Playing six games against the Rams, Seahawks and 49ers is rough, and their AFC match is the AFC West, which looks like the deepest division in that conference. For a Cardinals team that went 3-14 last season, it’s a tough draw.

Another team that isn’t projected to be very good and also got a difficult schedule is the Dolphins. They have the second toughest schedule based on win totals and last year’s records. That’s a massive difference from last season, when Miami was tied for the third easiest schedule via DVOA.

What about the Patriots?

The Patriots will have a tougher road back to an AFC East title this season, but the schedule is still not too bad. Their schedule is sixth easiest based on last year’s records, and 12th easiest based on win totals.

The Patriots play nine games against playoff teams from last season: Bills twice, Broncos, Packers, Steelers, Bears, Jaguars, Chargers, Seahawks. They also have games against teams like the Lions and Chiefs, who didn’t make the playoffs last season but could bounce back in 2026.

Which teams have the biggest change from last season?

A big difference in schedule strength from year to year can matter to a team’s results. The Dolphins, going from tied for third easiest to second toughest, is the biggest difference. Here are the other notable differences (using DVOA from last season and win totals via Warren Sharp for this season):

Much easier in 2026:

Ravens: No. 12 toughest to No. 6 easiest

Lions: No. 14 toughest to No. 1 easiest

Colts: No. 5 toughest to No. 9 easiest

49ers: No. 6 toughest to No. 8 easiest

Titans: No. 2 toughest to 13th easiest

Much tougher in 2026:

Bears: No. 7 easiest to No. 6 toughest

Cowboys: No. 5 easiest to No. 4 toughest