2026 PGA Championship picks: Cameron Young leads five players who could break through to win first major

Perhaps most importantly, Young seems comfortable and confident in the big moments now. His tempo and demeanor do not change late on Sundays, and he is willing to stick to his plan and play smart golf, even when the pressure starts to ratchet up.

There are a number of potential first-time winners in the 156-man field at the 2026 PGA Championship, but of all the contenders to capture their first major this week, the least surprising man that could be holding the Wanamaker Trophy on Sunday afternoon in Philly is Cameron Young.

Odds via FanDuel

Ludvig Åberg

Not far behind Young on the odds sheet is the young Swede, who has been tabbed as a future star since his arrival on the PGA Tour. When he's in a rhythm, it's hard to imagine anyone but Åberg winning. With a picture-perfect swing and cool, calm demeanor, Åberg is capable of doing things on the golf course that few ever have been. The problem? His swing has had a tendency to break down in big moments.

Young's victory at The Players this March was only possible because Åberg melted down in the middle of his final round, sending golf balls to a watery grave on back-to-back holes. That continued a trend of Åberg faltering on Sundays when in contention at big events, and the 26-year-old still seems to have some work to do in building up the mental edge for those moments.

That said, after a surprisingly rough 2025 and start to 2026, the game looks back in top form for the Swedish star. Åberg doesn't have the wins like Young, but he's also been in incredible form over the past two months with five top-10 finishes in his last six starts (T21 at the Masters the only miss). It feels like it's just a matter of time until Åberg cracks the code for getting a great week all the way to the clubhouse on Sunday, and when that happens, he could pile up some big trophies in a hurry. Odds: 20-1

Tommy Fleetwood

Fleetwood was supposed to have the year Young is having coming off his breakthrough win on the PGA Tour at the Tour Championship to close out 2025. Instead, Fleetwood has spent 2026 largely being "good, not great" -- with his usually dominant ball-striking the culprit of his inability to get into real contention most weeks.

The good news for Fleetwood is he showed real signs of life last week at the Truist Championship with a T5 finish -- his best since opening the season with a T4 at Pebble Beach. Perhaps that can build his confidence coming into a second-shot golf course that should, in theory, fit his game.

Fleetwood has long been at or near the top of the list of the best players without a major, and the challenge only grows with each passing year. New stars emerge, established stars get more comfortable, and all the while, pressure builds for Fleetwood to finally break through. His win in Atlanta last year proved there wouldn't be a more popular winner than Fleetwood, as chants rang across East Lake as he finally got the job done.Odds: 27-1

Russell Henley

The world No. 9 might be the most under-appreciated player on the PGA Tour. His mid-career renaissance has been remarkable to watch, and he's among the most consistent players week-to-week. This season, Henley has three top 10s and four other top 25s in his 10 starts, and while there's nothing flashy about his game, he is always a threat with his ball-striking and putting -- as evidenced by six top 10s in majors in the last four years.

The problem for Henley is firepower. By nature of being one of the PGA Tour's shortest hitters, his margin for error is simply lower than everyone else's at the top of the world ranking. The fact that he's ninth in the OWGR despite averaging less than 294 yards off the tee is a minor miracle in modern golf and underscores just how good he is at the other facets of the game.

That said, it's hard for him to hit the same top gear as the other elite players, which makes it difficult to capture major titles. Usually in majors, one of the big dogs is playing at full capacity, and it takes something truly special to top that. Henley may have that in him, but he certainly has to hit his A+ game to finally add "major champion" to his résumé.Odds: 45-1

Chris Gotterup

There are four players in the OWGR top 10 without a major title -- Young, Fleetwood, Henley and Gotterup. After racing out of the gates with two early wins in 2026, Gotterup has come back to earth of late and has become a bit of a forgotten man. He's made seven straight cuts, but his best finish in that span is a T14 -- this past week at the Truist. His game is just dragging a bit right now, but as he showed last year at Royal Portrush, he can hit those gears to contend with the best in the world at majors.

The New Jersey native won't be too far from home this week in Philadelphia, and perhaps a return to the corridor can bring out his top form that we haven't seen in a few months. If so, he's absolutely a threat for the Wanamaker Trophy as he hopes to continue his rapid ascent up the rankings.Odds: 60-1

Who will win the 2026 PGA Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Visit SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 17 golf majors heading into the weekend, including the past five Masters, and find out.