The 2026 Preakness Stakes will be analyzed from a handicapping perspective, focusing on race dynamics and potential winners. Notably, Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo will not participate this year.
Key points
2026 Preakness Stakes analyzed from a handicapping perspective
Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo not participating
Brittany Russell seeks to be the first female trainer to win
Race will be held at Laurel Park this year
Focus on race dynamics and potential winners
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Imagn Images
If you've landed on this page to learn about the Preakness Stakes -- its storied history, Black-Eyed Susans, its temporary home at Laurel Park this year, Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo not running in the race, Brittany Russell looking to become the first woman to train a Preakness Stakes winner -- then this story is not for you. All of that has been covered. Let Google be your friend.
Instead, this story will take a deep dive into this year's Preakness Stakes from a handicapping perspective, analyzing how it will be run and who is most likely to win.
The Preakness Stakes field is loaded with horses who want to be on or near the pace. Of the 14 horses in the field, 10 were either leading or within 1 ¾ lengths of the lead at the first call in their most recent race. For comparison, this year's 18-horse Kentucky Derby field also had 10 horses leading or within 1 ¾ lengths of the lead at the first call in their most recent race. The result? An incendiary pace meltdown in which the top four finishers were last, fourth to last, second to last and 10th at the first call.
In addition, the horses in the Preakness with the most early speed are drawn on the rail (No. 1 Taj Mahal) or on the outside (No. 9 Iron Honor and No. 10 Napoleon Solo). When the speed horses are at the extreme ends of a gate, that cooks up the early pace even more because those jockeys need to send from the bell or risk being stuck inside or wide.
If any race sets up for a pace collapse, it's the 2026 Preakness Stakes.
The most interesting horse in the race is the local hope, Taj Mahal. He is a perfect 3-for-3, with all three starts coming at Laurel Park. He is coming off his most eye-catching win yet, an 8 ¼-length romp in the Federico Tesio Stakes, which earned a solid Beyer Speed Figure of 92. Like most of the other horses in the field, he does his best running on the front end; he has won his last two starts in gate-to-wire fashion.
But three factors are working against him. First, he has never been in a fast-paced race. In his three starts, the fastest half-mile time in any of those was 47.72 seconds, and that came in a six-furlong sprint. In his last start, he completed the first six furlongs in a slow 1:14.30 seconds. By contrast, Napoleon Solo went 44.24 and 1:07.88 last year when winning the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes. Though the Champagne is a one-turn mile and one furlong shorter than Taj Mahal's last race, the difference in times is striking. Taj Mahal very likely will see a pace scenario on Saturday that he has not seen before.
Second, the No. 1 post really forces jockey Sheldon Russell's hand. From the rail and with all the speed to his outside, Russell either has to send Taj Mahal from the start and hope to get to the front without expending too much energy, which is easier said or done, or try to work out a trip behind and between the other speed horses, which the horse has never done before. Neither is the optimal scenario.
And finally, this is not the type of race that trainer Brittany Russell wins. Over the last five years, she is 0-for-32 in graded stakes dirt routes.
If the pace scenario plays out as expected, Taj Mahal will need to run in a way he has never done before in order to win this.
As the Kentucky Derby result showed, horses who have shown an ability to sit off the speed benefit from a pace collapse, especially if they have proven they can pass horses. For the Preakness Stakes there are four of those horses:
12 Incredibolt (5-1)
He always comes running at the end. In all but one of his six career starts, Incredibolt has passed horses down the stretch. The only race in which he did not was his no-show in the Holy Bull Stakes, which came after a three-month layoff.
The pace meltdown in the Kentucky Derby should've played right into his hands, but he didn't show the same late kick he had in winning the Virginia Derby and was only able to rally for sixth. Perhaps Incredibolt's kick was dulled by being a little too close to those fast fractions (he was within 8 lengths after a quarter mile), or maybe he wasn't 100% fit since he hadn't raced in seven weeks.
But this proven closer should be right there at the end. That's how Michelle Yu and I see it.
2 Ocelli (6-1)
Trained by Whit Beckman, Ocelli has turned in his two best career efforts since switching from a stalker to a late-running deep closer two starts ago. Critics say he has been the beneficiary of pace meltdowns in each of those two races, the Wood Memorial and Kentucky Derby. But isn't he going to get another pace meltdown on Saturday?
He was 12 lengths off the pace in the Kentucky Derby before commencing his rally around the far turn, and had jockey Tyler Gaffalione timed his move a little better, Ocelli arguably could be the Kentucky Derby winner. Don't be surprised if he's the Preakness Stakes winner.
**7 The Hell We Did (15-1)**The runner-up in the Lexington Stakes, The Hell We Did is more of a midpack runner than a deep closer like the top two. But he won't be anywhere near the lead on Saturday and has proven he can pass horses. Two starts ago he was 9 lengths off the lead in a six-furlong race and came roaring home to win by 13 lengths.
On Saturday, he will stretch out in distance by another furlong, but his half-brother, Senor Buscador, was elite at rallying from the clouds. That's how he won the $20 million Saudi Cup in 2024.
8 Built by the Horns (30-1)
There's a fine line between a proven deep closer and a horse that's just, well, slow. Built by the Horns could certainly be the latter; in five career starts, his best Beyer Speed Figure is 70, which is 10 points shy of the next slowest horse in the Preakness.
But speed figures for closers can often be misleading because they are at the mercy of pace. A slow pace will never yield a fast speed figure for a closer. Golden Tempo's pre-Derby speed figures are a great example.
In his last race Built by the Horns was last, almost 10 lengths behind the leaders, before he came flying around the far turn to win by a ½ length. Though that effort came on a synthetic surface, his sire, Essential Quality, has been better at producing runners on dirt than synthetic.
