2026 St Louis Cardinals Offense Loves The Comeback Win

ST LOUIS, MISSOURI - APRIL 14: JJ Wetherholt #26 (R) celebrates with Iván Herrera #48 of the St. Louis Cardinals after hitting a solo home run against the Cleveland Guardians in the third inning at Busch Stadium on April 14, 2026 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Joe Puetz/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The Cardinals are tied with most comeback wins in the majors at 7! The love to do it in dramatic fashion, too: 5-0 in 1 run games, and 4-0 in extra innings. That both goes to show you can never count this team out, and how easily it could be having a worse time of it.

If you want to know what the team’s BABIP is so far *Batting Average (on) Balls *In Play… it is only .260, which is third lowest in MLB. With an xwOBA that is 7th in MLB, that shows us something, a storyline to the early season… the team could and should/would be batting better, for whatever reason it’s not going as well as it probably will be. In the Future…

Cardinals xwOBA is .333 as a team, but the resulting wOBA is .309, a below average offense. To compare to a team that we have played already, the Nationals wOBA is higher than their xwOBA so they have been outhitting us undoubtedly so far. They’ve been a good offense!

The Cardinals probably have a lot of regressing to the mean to do, and that means an improved offense. If they have the spirit to edge out teams in close games, and then starting hitting… the pitching problems start to matter a little bit less.

Let’s take a look at some individual Cardinals players in this way:

• Jordan Walker: expected wOBA and actual wOBA nearly identical… this is a good sign! The BABIP is VERY high but he hits the ball with authority, so not that unexpected
• Ramon Urias is only slightly outhitting his xwOBA, while suffering a .227 BABIP… has Chaim Bloom secretly made an effective MLB offense?
• Alec Burleson has an xwOBA of .434! That’s second only to Jordan Walker. Maybe this is what the Cardinals have been dreaming of the last few years. Burly is going through a .268 BABIP. His actual wOBA is significantly lower than his xwOBA! Burleson just might break out at any time…
• Masyn Winn: .235 BABIP! xwOBA .338 not terrible (87 wRC+)
• JJ Wetherholt only at .245 BABIP with a higher expected wOBA than actual (109 wRC+ and 3 HR)
• Ivan Herrera .220 BABIP, expected wOBA nearly 100 points! higher than actual results

I want to know what that offense looks like firing on all cylinders! 5 out of 6 of those hitters could do a lot better and the one that is doing well seems fairly sustainable.

There isn’t as good of news for the pitching, but maybe the offense will at least keep things interesting for us Cardinal fans! The come from behind victories are beginning to feel like a signature move for this ballclub, at least in early April.

The Dodgers and Diamondbacks offenses are also good at surprising in late innings, as well as the Guardians so watch out! The Cardinals play at 12:15pm so I will cut this short. And move on to 1986! The Pirates and the Reds currently lead the division with the Cardinals in third place. The Brewers and Cubs right behind us. We have not yet played either West division, or within our own division, as a side note.

1986

Suggested Listening

• Beastie Boys – ‘Licensed to Ill’ I cannot really emphasize how much this album changed culture when it landed… it’s the only album my mother threatened to take away, it was a taped copy from a neighbor on the school bus… but it was a soundtrack to my grade school years into junior high. Hiphop had finally hit the mainstream in 1986! And was a household name, albeit more on the infamy side…
• Steve Coleman and Five Elements – ‘On The Edge Of Tomorrow’ Steve Coleman is one of my favorite saxophone players, a Chicago born New Yorker… Coleman became an avant garde jazz band leader, implementing nested loops into compositions while utilizing complex polytrhythms inspired by African music
• Jon Hassell – ‘Power Spot’ speaking of favorite brass, Hassell is one of my favorite trumpet players, albeit, he is different: he processes his trumpet playing with complex effects processing. He creates mystical voyages through sound in both a tribal and futuristic way and this album is one of his best examples of this
• Run D.M.C. – ‘Raising Hell’ I also received this album as a taped copy on the school bus, and also represented hiphop going big time with My Adidas and Walk This Way. The whole album sampled a lot of rock music making it on par with the Beastie Boys release, and is one of the most catchy albums of all time
• Slayer – ‘Reign In Blood’ an all out sonic onslaught lead by drummer Dave Lombardo and the furious lyrics and delivery of bassist Tom Araya… this put Slayer on the map as a major player along with Metallica! There are few albums as fast and intense as this one that actually are still pretty catchy (I had a chance to see the Lombardo brief reunion tour where they played this album in its entirety, i think I have permanent neck crackles from the amount of headbanging at this show!)
• Flotsam and Jetsam – ‘Doomsday for the Deceiver’ one of the all time best heavy metal albums just so happens to be Jason Newsted’s old band! you can actually hear really awesome bass playing hear, thanks Lars on Justice for All mix! not! this is a helluva diamond in the rough album, actual singing too
• Metallica – ‘Master Of Puppets’ speaking of Metallica! this is Cliff Burton’s final album, and it’s really good. It just isn’t quite as impressive as what Slayer and Flotsam and Jetsam were doing at the same time. Part of me thinks this album has not aged well, but what I really think is that it’s not just a speed metal/thrash album like the two Metallica albums prior… it’s also a gothic rock, melodic doom album

Honorable mentions go out to Sonic Youth and Killing Joke for their 1986 albums! Two of my favorite bands didn’t quite make the top 20, unexpected.

Dustin May will defend St Louis vs Slade Cecconi at 12:15pm, not so long after you read this! May has had a rough start except for his last outing where he started to turn it around and looked pretty good! Hopefully he will continue in that direction because we need a good rotation arm.