4 Kentucky Derby contenders to watch if it rains at Churchill Downs

TL;DR

With rain potentially affecting the Kentucky Derby, only four contenders have experience racing in wet conditions. The weather forecast for Louisville indicates a chance of precipitation, raising questions about how the horses will perform on a muddy track.

Key points

Four contenders have raced in wet conditions.
Weather forecast shows a 16% chance of rain.
Only one horse has won the Derby on a muddy track.
Historical weather patterns can change rapidly.

Kentucky Derby 2025

Kentucky Derby 151 was a mudder's paradise won by a horse who had never before raced on a sloppy track.

That's good news for this year's crop of contenders. None have truly gotten down and dirty.

About four days out from the Run for the Roses, AccuWeather.com projected the first Saturday of May in Louisville to be mostly cloudy — with a high of 59 degrees and a 16% chance of precipitation. But you know how quickly things can change in the Ohio Valley. This time last year, the Derby forecast called for sunny skies and a 1% chance of precipitation.

Per Equibase.com: Of the 20 horses set to compete in the iconic first leg of the Triple Crown, only four have raced in showery and/or rainy conditions to this point. None have been tasked with handling a muddy and/or sloppy track.

Weather-specific data for three contenders — Danon Bourbon, Wonder Dean and Six Speed — was not available.

If you're sent scrambling for a poncho at Churchill Downs and need help adjusting your Derby bets, here are the four horses who have experience racing in the rain — presented in order of their post positions: