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With rain potentially affecting the Kentucky Derby, only four contenders have experience racing in wet conditions. The weather forecast for Louisville indicates a chance of precipitation, raising questions about how the horses will perform on a muddy track.
Kentucky Derby 151 was a mudder's paradise won by a horse who had never before raced on a sloppy track.
That's good news for this year's crop of contenders. None have truly gotten down and dirty.
About four days out from the Run for the Roses, AccuWeather.com projected the first Saturday of May in Louisville to be mostly cloudy — with a high of 59 degrees and a 16% chance of precipitation. But you know how quickly things can change in the Ohio Valley. This time last year, the Derby forecast called for sunny skies and a 1% chance of precipitation.
Per Equibase.com: Of the 20 horses set to compete in the iconic first leg of the Triple Crown, only four have raced in showery and/or rainy conditions to this point. None have been tasked with handling a muddy and/or sloppy track.
Weather-specific data for three contenders — Danon Bourbon, Wonder Dean and Six Speed — was not available.
If you're sent scrambling for a poncho at Churchill Downs and need help adjusting your Derby bets, here are the four horses who have experience racing in the rain — presented in order of their post positions:
The four contenders with experience racing in wet conditions are Danon Bourbon, Wonder Dean, and Six Speed.
The forecast predicts mostly cloudy skies with a high of 59 degrees and a 16% chance of precipitation.
A muddy track can significantly impact a horse's performance, as not all horses are accustomed to racing on slippery surfaces.
Last year's Derby forecast predicted sunny skies with only a 1% chance of rain, illustrating how quickly weather can change in the Ohio Valley.

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2026 Kentucky Derby contender Albus on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Riley Mott. April 20, 2026
Albus enters the Derby having won his past two starts. The most recent of those victories for the son of Yaupon, on April 4 in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial Stakes at Aqueduct, came in showery conditions on a fast track.
LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY - APRIL 25: Right to Party trains on the track during morning workouts ahead of the running of the 152nd Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on April 25, 2026 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Right to Party is the most experienced Derby contender when it comes to racing in the rain. The son of Constitution finished 1¼ lengths behind Albus to take second place in the aforementioned Wood Memorial. And he broke his maiden amid rainy conditions Jan. 10 on a fast track at Aqueduct.
2026 Kentucky Derby contender The Puma stands outside Barn 42 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. April 23, 2026
The Puma made the most of his lone start in less-than-ideal conditions. The son of Essential Quality won a showery Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby by three quarters of a length on a fast track March 7 at Tampa Bay Downs.
2026 Kentucky Derby horse Further Ado with exercise rider Jonathan Santiago during a morning workout April 23, 2026 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Further Ado has raced six times and won three of those races, earning $1,146,328.
Further Ado finished second to The Puma (and a head in front of the third-place horse) in the aforementioned Tampa Bay Derby. That's the only time the son of Gun Runner has raced in the rain.
Reach Louisville men's basketball reporter Brooks Holton at bholton@gannett.com and follow him on X at @brooksHolton.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Kentucky Derby 2026 weather forecast with rain may favor these horses