4 keys for Cavs at Raptors Game 6: Can Donovan Mitchell break out of his slump?

Stars often decide closeout games. That will likely be the case here. The Cavs were able to win Game 5 due to strong performances from their role players. Dennis Schroder and Sam Merrill all had good showings off the bench, in addition to Evan Mobley reasserting the dominance he showed offensively in the first two games of the series. Those outings allowed Cleveland to scrape by with another lackluster performance — by his standards — from Mitchell. They likely won’t have that luxury on Friday. One of the ways to tell if Mitchell is playing up to his capabilities is by tracking how efficiently he’s getting into the paint. In the regular season, Mitchell converted 66% of his shots at the rim (60th percentile) and 55% between the restricted area and free-throw line (95th percentile). In the postseason, he’s completing just 52% at the rim (18th percentile) and 50% in the short midrange (88th percentile). Mitchell’s outside shot is predicated on how he’s attacking the basket. When he’s getting downhill like he’s capable, the defense can’t play as aggressively, which opens up the outside shot and his entire offensive arsenal.

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2. Closing in the fourth quarter

The Cavs had chances to win both games in Toronto in the final frame, but fell apart. In Game 3, the defense collapsed, allowing the Raptors to hang 43 points in the final frame. In Game 4, the offense sputtered out late as they surrendered an eight-point advantage in the final five minutes. The last four games of the series were tight in the fourth quarter. The team that won that frame went on to take the victory. This game will likely not be any different.

3. Slowing down Scottie Barnes

Barnes has been the best player in this series on both sides of the ball. He’s been asked to do more than ideal, given the fact that they’ve been without their starting point guard, Immanuel Quickley, all series. More responsibility could be added to his plate if Brandon Ingram isn’t available for Game 6. Even though Ingram has struggled to find a rhythm, he has occupied a lot of Cleveland’s defensive game plan. They’ve used their best wing defender, Dean Wade, to cover him in addition to sending double teams his way. That allocation of resources would be thrown at Barnes if Ingram is unavailable. We saw how Ingram’s absence affected Barnes in Game 5. He was unstoppable in the first half, as he put up 14 points on 6-10 shooting. The second half was a different story. He registered just three points in the final two quarters, with none coming in the fourth. The Raptors need Barnes more than ever, and Cleveland’s defense will be keying in on him more than they have at any point in the series. We’ll see if he can continue to be the best player in the series in Game 6.

4. Winning the possession battle

James Harden was asked after Game 5 what his team needed to do better to close the Raptors out in Game 6. His answer was direct. They need to limit the live-ball turnovers. The Cavs tied the Raptors in turnovers in Game 5, but Toronto outscored them 28-20 in points off turnovers. Likewise, the Raptors won the rebounding battle. They grabbed 15 offensive rebounds while Cleveland had just four. Toronto didn’t do much with those extra possessions as they had just 13 second-chance points compared to Cleveland’s 11. But they did have 14 more shots in a game that came down to the last few minutes. The easiest way to overcome a stagnant offense is to get more attempts than the other team. The Raptors aren’t known for their efficient offense and will likely have a tough time generating clean looks without the services of Barnes. If their offense is going to put up enough points, it’ll likely be because they’re getting out in transition off of steals and attempting more shots due to their offensive rebounding. Cleveland controlling this area would likely win them the game.