5 MLB pitchers who are underperforming based on their advanced metrics

TL;DR

Five MLB pitchers are underperforming despite advanced metrics suggesting they could improve. Notably, Lance McCullers Jr. has a 7.41 ERA but an xERA of 4.53, indicating potential for better performance.

Key points

Five MLB pitchers are underperforming this season
Lance McCullers Jr. has a 7.41 ERA and 4.53 xERA
High BABIP of .310 indicates luck-driven performance issues
Advanced metrics suggest potential for improvement
Pitching rotations and bullpens are taking shape

Lance McCullers Jr.Houston AstrosMLB

Six weeks into the MLB season, we are beginning to see pitching rotations take shape and bullpens get called into action. However, some pitchers are underperforming. Here we will further examine five pitchers whose advanced metrics suggest better performance for the rest of the season.

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Lance McCullers Jr., Houston Astros

Through his first 7 starts of the season, Lance McCullers Jr. has posted a 7.41 ERA through 34.0 innings pitched. His xERA is only at a 4.53, a 2.88 difference, suggesting that there is a luck-driven ERA inflation rather than a genuine skill loss. His above-average BABIP against of .310 indicates that there are some balls that are falling for hits at an unsustainable rate, meaning there is some sequence misfortune and defensive positioning harming his output.

Also, his 50.0% LOB% is historically low, meaning that runners who reach base are scoring at a frequency that is unheard of, ultimately overinflating his ERA and causing his underperformance.

Miles Mikolas, Washington Nationals

In his 11th MLB season, Miles Mikolas appears to be headed towards a free fall. However, his advanced metrics tell a different story. While posting a 7.44 ERA through his first 32.2 innings pitched for the Nationals, his xERA of 4.82 and home-run adjusted xFIP of 6.14 agree that his ERA is being overinflated. Mikolas also falls under the historically low strand rate at around 56.1%, which is 16 points below the league average of 72.2%.

Baserunners are scoring off Mikolas at a historically unsustainable number. Also, his 15.1% strikeout rate and 44.2% hard hit rate aren’t bad enough for his current ERA, suggesting that it is primarily a strand-rate disaster, and his positive regression is nearly guaranteed.

Q&A

Which MLB pitchers are underperforming based on advanced metrics?

The article highlights five pitchers, including Lance McCullers Jr., who are underperforming despite favorable advanced metrics.

What is Lance McCullers Jr.'s current ERA and xERA?

Lance McCullers Jr. has a 7.41 ERA and an xERA of 4.53, indicating a significant difference that suggests luck may be affecting his performance.

How does BABIP affect a pitcher's performance metrics?

A higher BABIP, like McCullers Jr.'s .310, suggests that balls are falling for hits at an unsustainable rate, which can inflate a pitcher's ERA without reflecting their true skill.

What does it mean if a pitcher's ERA is inflated due to luck?

An inflated ERA due to luck implies that the pitcher's actual performance is better than their ERA suggests, often due to factors like poor defensive support or bad sequencing of hits.