A Tidal Wave of Comp Picks Could Soon Crash into the Minnesota Vikings

David Reginek

Left untouched, the Vikings’ roster is going to see a ton of talent venture into next year’s free agency, creating perfect conditions to welcome a boatload comp picks (maximum = four).

Indeed, a lot of the in-house talents are working with just a single year left on their deals. That’s not to say that things aren’t going to change for some of these guys. Making a final call on the new GM will presumably be what precedes some of the contract decisions that have yet to be made. Agreeing to longer contracts with some of these players will still involve a future where Minnesota could be adding a good cluster of picks.

The Vikings’ Comp Picks Tidal Wave

Begin with some very basic rules to govern the conversation. Anyone looking to go more in-depth on the mystery of comp picks can check out Over the Cap, especially Nick Korte.

A basic understanding of comp picks means recognizing that a team that loses pricey veterans in free agency without bringing in a proportionally expensive incoming free agent is set to earn a draft pick. When Minnesota lost Sam Darnold on a deal for $33.5 million annually without bringing in someone of a similar price range, the Vikings earned that 3rd (the pick used on o-lineman Caleb Tiernan).

A variety of factors can complicate that too-simple math. Cutting a player, for instance, doesn’t mean a team gets a new candidate to generate a comp pick. What needs to occur is a team seeing a veteran get to the end of his deal before departing due to free agency. The NFL moves in afterwards to compensate the team that lost the pricey veteran by kicking over a draft pick.

Minnesota Vikings linebacker Blake Cashman (51) and offensive tackle Brian O’Neill (75) walk onto the field before a divisional matchup against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin, on Nov. 23, 2025. The veteran leaders prepared for another NFC North showdown as Minnesota attempted to secure an important late-season road victory against Green Bay. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images.

The current outlook has the cutoff for 2027 compensatory picks sitting a touch below $4 million per year.

Korte’s current estimation has Minnesota moving toward adding a 6th for the 2027 NFL Draft due to losing Ryan Wright ($3.5 million per year) and Jalen Nailor ($11.7 million per year). Signing James Pierre ($4.25 million per year) cancels out that possible Wright comp pick, but Nailor’s beefy deal didn’t have an offsetting deal to cancel out the added draft selection.

Jauan Jennings would have cancelled out that pick since his deal is reasonably meaty. Crucial, though, was the timing. Waiting until after the draft to sign Mr. Jennings means getting that projected 6th across the finish line, at least per the current outlook.

With all of that being said, consider players moving into a final contract year who could plausibly make enough on the open market to generate a comp pick:

• OL Blake Brandel
• LB Blake Cashman
• WR Jauan Jennings
• RB Aaron Jones
• RB Jordan Mason
• QB Kyler Murray
• RT Brian O’Neill
• LB Ivan Pace
• CB Isaiah Rodgers
• OT Ryan Van Demark
• EDGE Andrew Van Ginkel
• S Jay Ward

Consider a 2027 where the cutoff for comp picks sits at an average of $5 million. How many of the above-listed players will demand contracts meaty enough to get a comp pick on the board? The 2028 NFL Draft — an event that’s genuinely not that far off — could see two, three, or four picks added due to some of these guys going elsewhere.

Nov 13, 2022; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Minnesota Vikings full back C.J. Ham (30) reacts to scoring a touchdown along with Minnesota Vikings tackle Brian O’Neill (75) during the second half against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports.

The new GM, whoever that person ends up being, could opt to extend all of Brian O’Neill, Andrew Van Ginkel, Jay Ward, and maybe two or three others. Even that scenario, though, means seeing somewhere around a half dozen veterans who could be pricey enough to generate a comp pick.

Of course, the Vikings will probably be more frisky in next year’s free agency period since the current outlook has Minnesota at $56 million in cap space, albeit with only 42 contracts under consideration. Even bringing that open room down in the $30 to $40 million range will be more than enough to bring in some external talent, especially since next year’s cap saving moves haven’t yet taken place.

A tricky balance, to be sure, as Minnesota looks to thread the needle on veteran talent and assets to acquire young talent.

The Minnesota Vikings have worked through rookie minicamp. Next up are OTAs alongside mandatory minicamp. A summer break will take place before training camp gets rolling in late-July. After the GM mystery gets solved, some players will be extended ahead of being able to generate comp picks in March of 2027.

If/when these deals get done, consider who remains and what sort of possibilities the Vikings are working toward.