ACC bold predictions for 2026: Dabo Swinney's run at Clemson ends, Miami misses title game again

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College football rarely follows the script, which is what makes this offseason exercise worth doing. Bold predictions aren't about playing the percentages. It's about calling your shot and living with it.

The ACC, in particular, feels a bit open behind runaway favorite Miami, fresh off its runner-up finish in the College Football Playoff. But even the Hurricanes aren't guaranteed a trip to Charlotte when one or two unexpected results can reshape the entire race.

That uncertainty is what makes a league like this fun to project -- and easy to get wrong. Some of these will age poorly. A few might look ridiculous by mid-October. But that's the point. Every season delivers something no one saw coming, whether it's a contender falling apart, a player putting up video-game numbers or a team no one trusted suddenly playing for something meaningful in November.

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Brandon Marcello

Below is a bold prediction -- some positive, some not -- for every ACC team ahead of the 2026 season.

Boston College: Eagles make a bowl game

How bold is this, really? On the surface, not much. Roughly 45 Power Four teams reach bowl eligibility every year. But the bar is a lot lower in Chestnut Hill right now. FanDuel Sportsbook has Boston College's win total at just 3.5, tied for the lowest among Power Four programs. That tells you everything about expectations. To cash this prediction the traditional way, the Eagles probably need to double that number and get to six wins -- though 5-7 could sneak in depending on APR, where Boston College has been in the top 25 each of the past two years. There are winnable games on the schedule -- Cincinnati, Florida State, Maine, Pittsburgh, Rutgers and Syracuse all seem doable.

California: Tosh Lupoi era begins with a 5-1 start

There's a version of this season where California is one of the first teams people are trying to figure out if it's a contender or pretender come October. The schedule gives it a shot to build something early. With new coach Tosh Lupoi taking over and a returning quarterback in Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, there's enough excitement to think a fast start isn't out of the question. Five wins in the first six games are very much on the table if a couple of the swing matchups break the right way. And if that happens, it would be the best start for California since 2015, when it opened 5-0 before dropping five of its next six.

Clemson: 2026 will mark end of Dabo Swinney era

It might be another uneasy year in Clemson. Last season's 7-6 finish -- the program's worst in 15 years -- already raised questions, and 2026 doesn't exactly feel like a clean reset. The Tigers come into the year with a win total of 7.5 on FanDuel and sit in the ACC's second tier of contenders, not quite in the mix with the league's top group. That alone would've been hard to imagine not long ago. There's still enough talent to keep them competitive, but the consistency just hasn't been the same. This season could feel less like a bounce-back and more like the final chapter of the Dabo Swinney era at Clemson.

Duke: Blue Devils finish below .500 in ACC

Duke has been one of the ACC's most consistent programs over the last four seasons, stacking winning conference records under both Mike Elko and now Manny Diaz as the reigning conference champion. That run has flipped the script from the previous six-year stretch (2016-21), when Duke finished below .500 in league play every season. But 2026 feels more fragile. After a championship peak and key roster departures -- like star quarterback Darian Mensah -- it could be as simple as the Blue Devils slipping back under .500 in ACC play.

Florida State: Duce Robinson leads the FBS in receiving

After finishing eighth nationally with 1,081 receiving yards in 2025, Duce Robinson chose to return to Florida State instead of entering the 2026 NFL Draft. Now, he enters 2026 as one of the most productive receivers in the country. The volume is already there. Robinson accounted for 29.8% of Florida State's targets last season, a top-15 mark nationally, and he paired that with elite efficiency, finishing 10th in yards per target. In other words, he was maximizing opportunities. If that usage holds -- or even ticks up slightly -- the path is there to lead the FBS in receiving yards.

Georgia Tech: Jackets produce two 1,000-yard backs

Justice Haynes and Malachi Hosley give the Yellow Jackets a true two-headed ground game in 2026, and if the offense leans into it, both could clear 1,000 yards rushing in the same season. And there are reasons they have to lean on it. Georgia Tech lost quarterback Haynes King -- last year's leading rusher -- along with Jamal Haynes, who actually finished behind Hosley in yards rushing despite nearly 30 more carries. On top of that, the offense is almost completely rebuilt, with just two starters returning up front and the departure of offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner. But under coach Brent Key, the identity isn't changing much -- Georgia Tech is still going to run it.

Louisville: Cardinals go unbeaten in ACC play

There's a real case that Louisville should be favored in all nine of their ACC games this season -- credit Bud Elliott on the Cover 3 Podcast for spotting that earlier this year. The Cardinals are set to face six of the eight teams with the lowest odds to win the conference title, according to FanDuel. Of course, a lot of this hinges on new quarterback Lincoln Kienholz, the transfer from Ohio State. And yes, there's some extra belief here. As a fellow South Dakotan, it feels like my duty to buy in. This is the first year of the nine-game ACC slate, which only raises the degree of difficulty.

Miami: 'Canes miss out on ACC title game ... again

Miami enters the 2026 season as the runaway favorite to win the ACC -- a familiar position for a program that's consistently been projected among the league's top contenders in recent years. And yet, the breakthrough still hasn't come. The issue hasn't always been the spotlight moments. Credit to Mario Cristobal, as his in-game management showed real improvement during the College Football Playoff. The problem has been everything else. Miami has developed a habit of dropping one or two games it simply shouldn't, and those slip-ups have kept it out of Charlotte. The numbers back it up: the Hurricanes are just 1-4 in their last five ACC games decided by eight points or fewer, after going 5-3 in those situations earlier in Cristobal's tenure.

North Carolina: Belichick, Heels finish last in ACC

Expectations aren't high in Chapel Hill entering Year 2 of the Bill Belichick era. FanDuel sets the win total at just 4.5, with North Carolina carrying the third-worst ACC title odds. The schedule doesn't help. Six games come against projected top-half ACC teams, plus a tough non-conference slate that starts with TCU in Dublin, Ireland, and also includes Notre Dame. And that Dublin opener matters. The last four teams to lose the opener there haven't finished above .500 in the same season. Not exactly a trend UNC wants to test.

NC State: Double-digit wins on tap for Wolfpack

It's been more than two decades since NC State last hit double-digit wins. Since that 2002 team, they've come close a few times -- most recently in 2010, 2017, 2018, 2021 and 2024 -- but always fallen short. So is 2026 finally the year? FanDuel has the win total at just 6.5, but the schedule is manageable, with six games against ACC teams sitting in the lower half of the conference title odds. The problem is NC State has been here before -- plenty of offseason buzz, plenty of "this is the year" talk and not enough finishes to match it. Dave Doeren silences the critics this time.

Pittsburgh: Mason Heintschel leads the ACC in passing

Mason Heintschel threw for 2,354 yards in just nine starts as a freshman and still finished in the top 75 nationally. For a first-year starter, that's already a pretty big sample of volume production. There's an obvious risk of a sophomore slump, but he was handed the job early last season and had to grow into it on the fly. He also had four 300-yard games, including a 423-yard, three-touchdown, no-interception performance against NC State in late October. If that's the baseline and the role doesn't change much, the path to leading the ACC in passing yards isn't complicated.

SMU: Mustangs capture ACC Championship

If Miami misses the ACC Championship Game again and Louisville runs the table in the regular season, the obvious question becomes: who meets the Cardinals in Charlotte? Enter SMU. This isn't exactly coming out of nowhere. FanDuel gives the Mustangs the second-best odds (+700) to win the ACC, but well behind Miami. The path: SMU drops the regular-season matchup with Louisville in Week 3 but takes care of business the rest of the way, capitalizing if Miami stumbles. That sets up a rematch in Charlotte, where Rhett Lashlee and veteran quarterback Kevin Jennings flip the script.

Stanford: Cardinal get off to worst start in 20 years

Year 1 under Tavita Pritchard comes with a brutal opening stretch, and it might not take long for things to get uncomfortable. Stanford already showed vulnerability last year with a loss to Hawaii in the opener -- the program's first ever to the Rainbow Warriors -- and the 2026 slate ramps up quickly from there. Next up is Miami, Duke, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, and then Notre Dame, all before mid-October. FanDuel sets the win total at just 3.5. If things go wrong, that Elon game in Week 8 might be the only chance to get a win. The last time Stanford started 0-6 was 2006, when it ended the season 1-11 for its worst record in the modern era.

Syracuse: Bowl eligibility returns for Orange

Don't forget, Syracuse started 3-1 last season with wins over Clemson and a nine-win UConn team before quarterback Steve Angeli went down with a season-ending injury in September. Expectations aren't high for Fran Brown and the Orange in 2026, especially with a schedule that includes seven of the nine ACC teams with the best odds to win the conference title according to FanDuel. Brown hasn't officially locked in Angeli as the starter yet, but it feels more like competition on paper than a real open battle. Either way, last year made it pretty clear how important he is to everything they want to do offensively -- and if he stays healthy, Syracuse has enough to get back to bowl eligibility.

Virginia: Cavaliers miss out on bowl season

Every year, there seems to be a team or two that fails to match the momentum from the prior season. Virginia could be that team in 2026. The Cavaliers were on the doorstep of the College Football Playoff before falling to Duke in the ACC Championship Game, and then came a wave of transfer portal departures that reshaped the roster and reset a lot of what worked a year ago. FanDuel has the win total at 7.5, but CBS Sports' Brad Crawford projected the under, viewing 2025 as a possible outlier for a program that hadn't finished above .500 in five straight seasons before last year's breakout.

Virginia Tech: James Franklin gets to 10 wins in Year 1

James Franklin has a chance to awaken a sleeping giant in Blacksburg, but the market isn't buying it yet. FanDuel set the Virginia Tech Hokies' win total at just 6.5 for the 2026 season. The pieces are in place to start fast, though, and the ACC schedule offers a clear runway for early momentum. If the Hokies stack wins in September and October, this starts to look a lot more like a 10-win team than a fringe bowl squad. To actually get there, they'll have to steal one on the road against either Clemson, Miami or SMU.

Wake Forest: Demon Deacons go winless on the road

Wake Forest took a step forward in Year 1 under Jake Dickert, but 2026 sets up differently. The goal is to get back to a bowl game again, but that will require winning a few toss-up games on the road, and that's where things get tricky. Trips to Purdue, Louisville, NC State, California, SMU and Georgia Tech don't offer many obvious openings. The Demon Deacons also face back-to-back road trips twice without a bye in between, including a cross-country visit to Berkeley. The last time Wake Forest went winless in true road games was 2014.