After No. 1, it's all up in the air: Inside the NFL's split on the 2026 draft

Beyond Simpson, there is a healthy debate as to who will be QB3 and when they will be picked. Believe it or not, Miami's Carson Beck has emerged as one of the more intriguing wild cards.

The 23-year-old Beck is making a late play to be QB3 in the 2026 NFL Draft.  Getty Images

It's not that anybody thinks Beck is a top-32 player in the draft. He's the No. 202 player in the CBS Sports prospect rankings, while the general consensus among personnel staffers still places Beck in the late second to third round. But multiple sources -- including a player personnel director, a Southeast area scout and a pass game coach -- said they could see a team taking the polarizing Beck earlier than expected, potentially late in the first round or early in the second, because finding a competent, cheap and controllable quarterback play has never been more difficult.

"I know the public perception but he's an experienced, good, talented thrower that's really smart and he's ready to go," a player personnel director said. "So I could see a team taking him as early as [Round 1]."

Beck started 43 games in college and threw for 3,813 yards and 30 touchdowns last season at Miami while completing 72.4% of his passes. He was once a darling of NFL evaluators, entering the 2024 season at Georgia as the projected QB1 of the 2025 draft class. Turnover-prone play and and an elbow injury compromised those projections and Beck transferred to Miami, where he saved a decent amount of his draft stock. All that said, it is more likely that Beck is a Day 2 pick than a Day 1 pick -- but we will see.

Another name mentioned by a pass game coach as a potential sleeper is Penn State's Drew Allar, who could be in play on Day 2 despite uneven college tape. That coach told me he liked Allar better than both Beck and Simpson.

While a number of personnel staffers have said that Allar's college tape left a lot to be desired, the 6-foot-5, 228-pound three-year starter, who was a former top-5 recruit, has a lot of quiet supporters.

"The one guy that could be kind of a surprise is Drew Allar," the coach said. "I think his talents and skill set translate really well to the NFL. I think a lot of people would've said that going into the 2025 season and then people have probably dropped off on him since his 2025 season, but I personally think he has a lot of tools and resources that he's going to be able to use that will translate. I think he's got to learn a little bit, as every quarterback does coming to this level, but I think he's kind of the sleeper that's not getting a lot of talk."

Prospects gaining late momentum

Several non-quarterbacks have also generated buzz in recent days as potential surprise first-round picks.

UCF edge rusher Malachi Lawrence and San Diego State cornerback Chris Johnson were among the most frequently mentioned names by personnel staffers. Lawrence recorded seven sacks last season and tested well at the combine, while Johnson -- a second-team All-American -- posted a 4.40 40-yard dash.

"Kind of a sleeper, but I think he could go in the first," a player personnel director said of Johnson.

Arizona safety Treydan Stukes is also viewed as a strong candidate to go early on Day 2 and could push into the back end of the first round.

Other names mentioned as players who could go earlier than expected include North Dakota State wide receiver Bryce Lance, Mississippi State wide receiver Brennan Thompson, Arkansas running back Mike Washington and Stephen F. Austin cornerback Charles Demmings.

Trade activity expected Thursday night

Depending on who you talk to, there's a growing belief around the league that Thursday night could feature significant movement. That theory flies in the face of the idea that a shorter time on the clock may lead to trade paralysis, or that a weaker pool of prospects may fog up the trade value picture.

We will see. Multiple sources pointed to a lack of blue-chip depth in this class as a reason teams may look to either trade up for specific targets or move back to accumulate value.

"Seems like a lot of teams in the first round are looking to trade out because of lack of depth," a player personnel director said. "You either go up to get your guy or you're at the back of [Round 1] and you trade out and hope for kind of a value pick in the second."

That dynamic could lead to a first round defined as much by movement as by the picks themselves.