Agent's Take: Inside Cardinals' decision to draft Jeremiyah Love and how it will affect running back market

Love contract by the numbers

• Signing bonus: $35,022,048
• Fully guaranteed at signing: $53,022,816
• Total: $53,022,816
• Contract length: Four years
• Average per year: $13,255,704

There's a fifth-year option with first-round picks that must be exercised after the third year of the deal with a May 1 deadline.

The money would be the same for the third pick whether a quarterback, edge rusher or wide receiver was taken. Edge rushers and wide receivers are the NFL's highest-paid players besides quarterbacks.

At $13,255,704 per year, Love becomes the NFL's seventh-highest-paid running back. His average yearly salary is about 7.5% less than the $14.293 million franchise tag the New York Jets placed on running back Breece Hall in early March.

The 2025 average salary for starting running backs, excluding those on rookie contracts strictly determined by draft position, was $9,185,225 per year, according to NFLPA data. The number drops to $6,607,203 per year with the inclusion of starters with rookie contracts.

Love has the most guaranteed money ever in a running back contract at $53,022,816. The previous record was Ezekiel Elliott's $50,052,137 of overall guarantees in the six-year, $90 million contract extension he signed with the Dallas Cowboys in 2019.

Love shatters the mark for money fully guaranteed at signing with a running back. Barkley held that distinction with $36 million in the two-year, $41.2 million extension he received from the Philadelphia Eagles last offseason. The $36 million was the most overall guarantees in an existing running back contract. Love's $35,022,048 signing bonus is also a running back record.

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Zachary Pereles

The same financial dynamic wouldn't exist if Arvell Reese had been selected instead with the intention of using him as an edge rusher. The Cardinals tied for 28th in the NFL with 30 sacks last season. There would have been greater potential for surplus value. Reese would have been the NFL's 33rd-highest-paid edge rusher by average yearly salary.

It's conceivable that Love won't be in the top 10 for running back pay by the time the regular season starts. The Jets used the franchise tag on Hall with the intention of signing him to a long-term deal. The Miami Dolphins are interested in extending De'Von Achane's contract. Achane, a 2023 third-round pick, has an expiring contract.

Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, 2023 first-round picks, are also eligible for contract extensions with the Atlanta Falcons and Detroit Lions. New deals would likely reset the running back market or come close to Barkley's $20.6 million per year.

Love is probably going to be the rookie under the biggest microscope especially if he gets off to slow start because of finances and his draft position. The Las Vegas Raiders plan on bringing first overall pick Fernando Mendoza along slowly with 15-year NFL veteran Kirk Cousins as the likely Week 1 starting quarterback. This is a primary factor in Love being the odds-on favorite to be 2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Love enters a crowded backfield in Arizona. Tyler Allegier signed a two-year, $12.25 million deal, averaging $6.125 million per year with $8 million fully guaranteed, as an unrestricted free agent. James Conner, who was sidelined after three games last season because of a right foot injury, took a pay cut from $8 million to $3 million (with an additional $2.5 million in incentives) to remain in Arizona. He was coming off back-to-back seasons with more than 1,000 yards rushing when he had his season-ending foot injury.

Love is going to have to consistently perform as a top 10 running back throughout his rookie contract for the Cardinals to even get an adequate return on their investment. That's means at a minimum gaining 1,000 yards on the ground annually. An average of 13.6 running backs per season have hit the 1,000-yard rushing mark ever since the NFL moved to a 17-game schedule in 2021. Seventeen ball carriers had 1,000 yards rushing or more last season. Bucky Irving, who was selected in the third round by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, was 10th in 2004 with 1,122 yards when he was a rookie.

Arizona's best-case scenario is probably Love producing like Barkley or Elliott did early in their careers. Barkley led the NFL with 2,028 yards from scrimmage (combined rushing and receiving yards) and earned 2018 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors in the process. His 1,307 yards rushing as a rookie were second in the league.

Barkley bettered his rookie rushing total in 2022 with 1,312 yards when he was in his contract year. This led to the Giants putting a franchise tag on Barkley in 2023.

Elliott, who was 2016's fourth overall pick, led the NFL with 1,631 yards rushing and was named a first-team All-Pro as a rookie. He won his second rushing title in 2018. Elliott averaged 101.2 yards rushing per game prior to signing his $15 million-per-year deal in 2019. After finishing fourth with 1,357 yards rushing in 2019, Elliott's career took a sharp downturn.

Elliott was in an ideal situation when he was drafted because the Cowboys arguably had the NFL's best offensive line. Love joins a team in which the offensive line wasn't a strength last season. The Cardinals had the NFL's seventh worst offensive line in 2025, according to Pro Football Focus.

Left guard Isaac Seumalo was signed to a three-year, $31.5 million contract with $19 million of guarantees in free agency. Chase Bisontis was taken in the second round with the 34th overall pick. He is expected to start at right guard.

Addressing the offensive line was a necessity for Love to avoid the frustrations Ashton Jeanty, who was 2025's sixth overall pick, had with the Raiders last season. Jeanty wasn't as effective as he could have been because he was operating behind the NFL's worst offensive line in PFF's rankings.

An unintended consequence of Love's contract could be other running back situations becoming more complicated. For example, the price for the Cincinnati Bengals to extend Chase Brown's rookie contract may have gone up. Brown, who is in a contract year, is a dual-threat running back with more than 2,000 yards rushing and 120 receptions over the last two seasons. He would be justified in seeking more money than an unproven commodity no matter his potential.

James Cook probably thinks he's underpaid after he surprisingly led the NFL in rushing (1,621 yards) last season. He signed a four-year, $46 million extension, averaging $11.5 million per year, with the Buffalo Bills last August after contentious negotiations. A running back who has never played a down in the NFL making 15% more probably only fuels any discontent Cook may have.

Love having somewhat comparable production to Barkley or Elliott under their rookie contracts would validate the Arizona selecting him so high. Only time will tell whether the Cardinals made a good decision.