Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa pick, odds, time: UFC Fight Night 276

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at UFC Fight Night 276's main event between Arnold Allen and Melquizael Costa.

Arnold Allen UFC Fight Night 276 preview

Staple info:

Record: 20-4 MMA, 11-3 UFC
Height: 5'8" Age: 32 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 65"
Last fight:Decision loss to Jean Silva (Jan. 24, 2026)
Camp: BKK Fighters (England)
Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:

- Amateur boxing accolades
- Amateur MMA titles
- Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt
- 7 KO victories
- 4 submission wins
- 4 first-round finishes
- Knockout power
- Solid boxing technique
^ Good footwork, educated guard
- Accurate left hand
^ Coming forward and off the counter
- Strong inside the clinch
- Improved wrestling ability
^ Defense and overall fundamentals
- Good transitional grappler
^ Solid submissions and scrambles
+/- 1-0 opposite fellow UFC-level southpaws
+/- 2-0 in the UFC Apex

Melquizael Costa UFC Fight Night 276 preview

Staple info:

Record: 26-7 MMA, 6-2 UFC
Height: 5'10" Age: 29 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 71"
Last fight:TKO win over Dan Ige (Feb. 21, 2026)
Camp: Chute Boxe Joao Emilio (Brazil)
Stance/striking style: Southpaw/muay Thai
Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:

- Regional MMA accolades
- Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
- Multiple regional jiu-jitsu titles
- 9 knockout victories
- 8 submission wins
- 11 first-round finishes
- Knockout power
- Dangerous and dynamic kicks
^ Variates looks and levels
- Steadily improving boxing
^ Sneaky rear hand and improved lead hand
- Crafty inside the clinch
^ Judo-style trips, knees and elbows
- Good transitional grappling
^ Favors front chokes and back takes
+/- 0-1 opposite fellow UFC-level southpaws
+/- 4-1 inside the UFC Apex

Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa breakdown: Featherweight fisticuffs

The main event in Las Vegas features potential fireworks between ranked featherweights, Arnold Allen and Melquizael Costa.

This is a rare southpaw vs. southpaw matchup, so I suggest leaving some room to be surprised given the traditional volatility that comes with these kinds of fights. Right-handed fighters may commonly complain about having to fight southpaws, but the truth is that no one hates fighting southpaws more than other southpaws due to the fact that most lefties primarily predicate their games against orthodox opposition in the gym.

Both men have limited experience and sample sizes opposite fellow southpaws, making this matchup all the more interesting.

🧵Arnold Allen, who faces Melquizael Costa at #UFCVegas117, is 1-0 opposite fellow UFC-level southpaws (W: Amirkhani)

Not a lot of striking w/Amirkhani, but Allen’s lead hand is effective and he maintains instincts for counters in closed stance affairs. Leg kicks look available. pic.twitter.com/IdSyQ0ypCk

— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) May 15, 2026

Stepping onto the scene as a sporadic action fighter, Allen has steadily been refining his game and building on his boxing foundation.

Allen has always had potent hooks and crosses off the counter, but now it is not uncommon to see the Englishman control range and set up his offense with sharp jabs and active feet. When feeling in stride, Allen will target the body with impunity, as well as attack the legs on occasion.

Allen bounces outside Silva's lead foot and scores a clean body hook pic.twitter.com/ytVzQ2x8Xl

— MixingMartialArts (@RyanAWagMMA) January 28, 2026

In fact, Allen has been incorporating kicks a lot more in the latest stretch of his career. Whether Allen is counter-balancing his kicks with quick punches off the same side or using his punches to set up blind-siding head kicks (a la his former training partner, Leon Edwards), the 32-year-old has really begun to blossom as a fully-fledged southpaw threat.

Allen also utilizes excellent lateral movement and footwork to stage his shots, but I suspect the stylistic dynamic of a more dangerous kicker will encourage more pressure out of Allen.

Enter Costa.

A deceptively crafty fighter, Costa has steadily been building his game behind a wall that is his dynamic kicking offense.

Bearing a process that is similar in spirit to southpaw muay Thai legend, Siitichai Sitsonpeenong, Costa will establish leg and body threats before building into bigger attacks. Costa will typically utilize rear teeps to the body and lead sidekicks to the knee as his jab, but – akin to the Sittichai reference above – “The Dalmation” has steadily been improving his boxing abilities.

Although Costa still doesn’t jab as much as I’d like him to, the Brazilian has gotten a lot better with his lead hand presence. From feints and jabs that help disguise his power kicks to checking hooks that allow him cover to pivot off to safety, Costa seems to be carrying most of the weapons that southpaws should never leave home without.

Costa is also not afraid to crash with opponents in the clinch, showing solid knees, elbows and an awareness to try and turn toward positive positions.

Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa point of interest: Potential grappling threats

Considering the smaller fighting surface of the Apex and the action it encourages, no one should be shocked if this party hits the floor.

Despite the nature of Costa’s two losses in the octagon, I wouldn’t be surprised if he looked for takedown opportunities opposite Allen. Akin to when Costa last fought a striking southpaw in Steve Garcia, the Brazilian primarily opted for a sticky grappling game plan.

Costa may not be the cleanest or most powerful shot wrestler, but the 29-year-old does possess some sneaky judo-style trips and tosses that he likes to mix in with his striking threats. And if Costa can snag a front-headlock or work to the back off a rear-waist cinch, then the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt will go full send on chokes that can close the fight.

Nevertheless, Costa will still need to respect Allen’s underrated grappling skills and wicked front choke.

Already strong in the clinch by nature, Allen has added some solid fundamentals to help strengthen his game over the years.

Urgent in the underhook department, seldom will you see Allen settle for negative positions without swimming for underhooks of his own as he attempts to shuck and spin his opposition around. Even when someone tries to attack his neck or back in transition, Allen has proven to be a solid scrambler who can safely find his way back to his feet.

Hustling takedown sequence here from Arnold Allen: Hoists Amirkhani from a body-lock, hip bumping him uchimata-style and following momentum to finish with an outside reap that briefly scores him mount until settling for KC control (an excellent GNP position that leads dope mount) pic.twitter.com/F3TdUHCmdq

— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) May 15, 2026

Offensively, Allen is a very capable takedown artist who can chain and finish attempts from multiple positions. The potential problem, though, is that Allen has seemingly gotten away from the grappling game that he came into the organization with, owning only one takedown attempt to his name in the past half-decade.

Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa odds

The oddsmakers and the public are slightly favoring the English fighter, listing Allen -138 and Costa +112 via FanDuel.

Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa prediction, pick

Considering the competitive nature of this fight on paper and otherwise, the betting spread above seems about right. In fact, this feels like an extra tough one to call due to the fact that I’m a genuine fan of both fighters.

Aside from being an incredibly likable person, Allen has had some real unfair shakes in the scorecard department opposite Movsar Evloev and Jean Silva (two fights that are way closer than given credit for, particularly when you turn down the commentary).

Meanwhile, Costa, whom I selected as MMAJunkie’s 2025 Under-the-Radar Fighter of the Year, has continued to prove his supporters right and doubters wrong, all while providing a positive role model for people with vitiligo and children alike.

But when I put my feelings aside, I find myself leaning toward the more experienced and proven product in Allen.

Although this could be somewhat of a repeat of Carlos Prates-Jack Della Maddalena when you consider the southpaw muay Thai stylist vs. the stance-matching boxer, I’m not sure Costa has the defensive savvy to conduct that same sort of symphony.

🧵Melquizael Costa, who faces Arnold Allen at #UFCVegas117, is 0-1 opposite fellow UFC-level southpaws (losing to Steve Garcia)

There’s not much striking samples of Costa in closed-stance affairs, but his defensive flaws of an upright head on linear retreats did show themselves. pic.twitter.com/Sew3tg9S2d

— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) May 15, 2026

Despite Costa’s samples opposite fellow southpaws being small, the Brazilian displays some worrying defensive trends in the form of linear retreats and a lack of head movement that are persistent in either stance pairing (with left hands traditionally taxing him on approach and right hands being the common culprit for his kicks being countered).

Don’t get me wrong: Costa will have the kicking advantage and his leg kicks, in particular, could be a real difference-maker considering the availability Allen showed in the southpaw report linked in previous sections. But if Costa fails to finish or seriously debilitate his foe in the first two or so frames, then I suspect that he could just end up convincing Allen to knock him out given the English fighter’s propensity to match his opponent’s energy and overall level.

Even if Costa has the deeper toolbag on paper, “The Dalmation” has shown to slow down and flag in three-round affairs prior. An Allen knockout is a firmer possibility than the public and pundits predict, but I’ll officially pick “Almighty” to pull away down the stretch with superior pressure, footwork and boxing for a competitive but clear decision win on the scorecards.

Prediction: Allen by decision