Manchester City enter Sunday’s match in 2nd place with 64 points and a record of 19W/7D/5L.
Much like last season, City have been a far cry from their previous years of unchecked dominance. They found it hard to get into consistent form and endured a crop of injuries over the first phase of the season. So what did they do? Just splash some more winter cash to pick up the league’s most electric winger in Antoine Semenyo and one of England’s top centerbacks in Marc Guehi.
To be fair, referring to it as a down year is a misrepresentation. For most clubs, this season would be a resounding success. Though they were dumped out of the Champions League last month, they are on course for a domestic treble after defeating the Gunners in the Carabao Cup final and smashing Liverpool 4-0 to earn a spot in the FA Cup semifinals.
The Cityzens have been unbeaten in the league since a 2-0 loss to Manchester United in January, and their last loss before that was a 2-1 defeat at Newcastle back in November. The biggest issue has been their draws, and more so the timing of them. Seven draws on the season have hampered their momentum, with City having only one winning streak of over five matches this season. Back to back draws against Nottingham Forest and West Ham before the break typified their inconsistency and had people penciling in Arsenal for the title.
Since the cup final win against the Gunners, though, everything has looked to fall into place for them. All-world striker Erling Haaland has gotten back into goalscoring form and Antoine Semenyo has hit the ground running. Meanwhile, players like Nico O’Reilly and Rayan Cherki have entered their own purple patches with City on a three match streak.
City had Arsenal’s number at Wembley last month and they will likely look to nullify the Gunners in much the same way, which is to sit off the press and force the defense and Raya to go long. Arsenal were hesitant to make line-breaking passes and failed to win the second ball against City all match, allowing them to dictate the tempo and rhythm of the game.
Another match, another new injury concern. Noni Madueke was forced off against Sporting after a knee-on-knee collision in the second half on Wednesday and was limping pretty noticeably after the final whistle.
Mikel Arteta confirmed that Bukayo Saka’s absence would extend at least one more match, ruling out the winger for Sunday as he continues working through a nagging Achilles issue. He was also predictably mum on the availability of the likes of Jurrien Timber and Martin Ødegaard. It’s safe to assume they are out until they are on the team sheet.
OUT: Mikel Merino (foot), Bukayo Saka (achilles), Jurrien Timber (groin)
DOUBT: Riccardo Calafiori (knock), Noni Madueke (knee), Martin Ødegaard (knee)
Attack: Trossard, Havertz, Martinelli
Bukayo Saka’s continued absence and the recent injury to Noni Madueke have seen the options out wide reduced to three for the time being, with Gabriel Martinelli, Leandro Trossard, and Max Dowman the remaining wide players. That being said, the de facto lineup likely sees Trossard start on the left with Martinelli on the right. Gabriel Jesus is an option on the wing, but he simply doesn’t have much more than 30 minutes left in his legs at a stretch. Dowman is talented, but still just too young to start in a match of this magnitude.
Up top, Arteta may look to Kai Havertz to bring some control into the attack. Viktor Gyökeres has found zero success against City this season, and that is unlikely to magically change this weekend. Havertz’ ability to lead the press and his positioning make him a solid weapon against an obstinate City defense.
Someone needs to step up. The question remains: who?
Midfield: Rice, Zubimendi, Eze
Ahead of the second Sporting match, I was certain that Martin Zubimendi was spent and needed to be dropped to get his legs back. Then he went out and put in a MOTM performance, his best showing in several months. I was happy to look foolish there, and hope that he rides that positive performance into another one on the weekend.
Declan Rice returned from a midweek illness to lead the side and shore up the middle of the park. He has been wearing the Captain’s arm band the past two matches, which just feels fitting for one of the squad’s most vocal leaders.
Eberechi Eze retains his spot after a pretty good showing on Wednesday. He looked to have shaken off most of the rust following his injury layoff. The Eze thaw is hopefully upon us with spring underway.
Considering the stakes, I think it’s a safe bet that Arteta leans on the same midfield as he did on Wednesday.
Defense: Hincapie, Gabriel, Saliba, Mosquera
The defense stepped up in a big way on Wednesday. On the heels of two underwhelming performances, they were resolute and held a Sporting side that had been shut out just once this season before the QFs to 0.33 xG and zero goals.
It doesn’t take a statistical wizard to see the correlation between that performance and the presence of Piero Hincapie and Cristhian Mosquera in the fullback roles. Their return to the starting XI injected much-needed solidity on the flanks, and their stinginess kept Sporting frustrated all evening.
The centerbacks need no explanation. There is no pairing you would rather have on Sunday than Gabriel and William Saliba. They know the challenge ahead and have dealt with it in the past. Their experience and leadership will be pivotal if they hope to keep City’s attack at bay.
Keeper: Raya
Arsenal’s #1 was uncharacteristically shaky on Wednesday. While he was largely untroubled by Sporting’s attack, a few of his passes were cut out by the opposition, with one instance nearly resulting in a chance for Sporting just outside of the box. Gotta get those out of the system so they don’t creep in on Sunday, I suppose.
In a campaign that has felt filled with them, Sunday is the unequivocal Biggest Match of the Season. The Gunners (and everyone else, for that matter) know it, but for them to get over the City hump, the biggest thing they can do is not overhype the occasion. For too long, this side has reached the final phase of the season and let the stakes unravel them. Tension has become so baked into the club, from the fans on down, that they have let it define them. The only way to break that is to play like a top team. It’s time to let go, let loose, and play like they’ve been there before.
**WHO:** Arsenal at Manchester City
**WHAT:** Premier League match day 33
**WHEN:** Sunday, April 19th, 11:30am EST/8:30am PST/4:30pm GMT
**WHERE:** The Etihad Stadium, Manchester
**HOW TO WATCH:** Broadcast live on the NBC Network. Streaming on the Peacock app.
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