ASK IRA: Has the lottery ship sailed after this year’s drawing for Heat?

TL;DR

The Miami Heat's chances of securing a high draft pick may be diminishing, especially with the 2027 draft expected to be weak. The unprotected first-round pick owed to Charlotte in 2028 complicates their lottery strategy.

Key points

Miami Heat's championship success is tied to Dwayne Wade.
2027 draft is not expected to be strong.
Heat owe an unprotected first-round pick to Charlotte in 2028.
Tanking may not be a viable option for the Heat.
Current odds could still provide opportunities for the Heat.

Miami Heat

Q: The only championship success the Heat have had is with Dwayne Wade. Don’t you think the Heat, in order to get a superstar, need to focus on getting a high draft choice, rather than trying to patch together a team with mid-level picks? If tanking is the only way to get a high pick, then hold your nose and tank. – Don.

A: Or has that window closed? First, the 2027 draft is not expected to be strong. So you could wind up getting to the top of the lottery order, and then wind up with the likes of a Zaccharie Risacher or Deandre Ayton or Anthony Bennett at the top of the draft. And if the Heat are in the lottery next year, then the first-round pick owed to Charlotte would be unprotected in 2028. So it would appear, at least for the short term, that the lottery ship has sailed for the Heat, due to that 2027/’28 pick due to the Hornets from the regrettable Terry Rozier trade. Race to the bottom might have made sense this season, if that even would have been considered (it was not). But now, such an approach the next couple of seasons could be fraught with peril. But, hey, there’s always next month’s dance with the current odds. (And, yes, moving up could have re-set the Heat for years to come.)

Submit your “Ask Ira” question here!

Q: Maybe tear up the old deal with one year left and give Andrew Wiggins a multi-year deal with a little bit more cash for two years? Is that possible, Ira? I like Wiggs and agree even at 31 he is still athletic and contributes a lot at that small-forward spot. Would love to keep him. – Douglas.

A: This comes down to whether the approach should be taking the long view. While the Heat will be operating above the salary cap this offseason, there is the potential a year from now, in the 2027 offseason, to have upwards of $90 million in cap space. Yes, cap space isn’t quite the tool it used to be, with teams locking up potential free agents in advance. But it is the threat to poach with such space that often creates opportunity, and also can be hugely effective in trades or even sign-and-trade transactions. So whether it is working on a deal to retain Andrew Wiggins beyond this season or even utilizing the mid-level exception this summer, it is a very fine line between having ultimate flexibility a year from now or continuing to have to work within tight cap constraints.

Q&A

What are the implications of the Heat's unprotected 2028 pick owed to Charlotte?

The unprotected 2028 pick means that if the Heat are in the lottery next year, they could lose a valuable asset, complicating their rebuilding efforts.

Why is the 2027 NBA draft considered weak for the Miami Heat?

The 2027 draft is not expected to feature strong prospects, which could lead to the Heat ending up with less impactful players if they secure a high pick.

What trade impacted the Miami Heat's lottery chances?

The regrettable Terry Rozier trade has left the Heat with an unprotected first-round pick owed to Charlotte, affecting their future draft strategies.

Could the Miami Heat consider tanking to improve their draft position?

While tanking might have seemed a viable strategy, the risks associated with their current pick situation make it a perilous approach for the next couple of seasons.