Aston Villa vs. Liverpool: How Arne Slot controls Brighton, Brentford, Bournemouth's Champions League fates

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Curiously, their expected goal trends would suggest this is not a team that is vastly different to the one that was rattling off wins over Christmas. The attack has slowed down a fair bit of late, perhaps a reflection of the huge minutes burden on Morgan Rogers, whose 4382 minutes across 53 games puts him eighth for minutes played across all competitions in Europe's top five leagues. Injuries in midfield, too, have hindered Emery, who will have to do without Amadou Onana, Alysson and Boubacar Kamara for the visit of Liverpool. Villa have rotated somewhat of late, most notably in their loss to Tottenham, and it remains to be seen if this might be a weakened team for the final home game of the season, as focus drifts to the meeting with Bundesliga side Freiburg in Istanbul.

"The reason [for the drop in form], we must analyse deeply at the end of the season," said Emery, who has struggled to deliver key results down the stretch in many of his years managing in the Premier League. "But my objective is to compete in different competitions at our best level and to have enough players, enough mentality to play and fight in the Premier League with the best teams and try to get our best position like we are doing."

If Villa do indeed get their best position -- likely fourth given the goal difference advantage, Manchester United in third have -- then all the aforementioned permutations involving the B teams head out the window. Liverpool would slip down to fifth and be thankful it is one of those years where the Premier League flexed its muscles across all three European competitions. That there would still be Champions League football next season helps ease the pressure on Arne Slot, who insisted on Thursday that he was not feeling the pressure of a down year after the title triumph he delivered in his first season on Merseyside.

"I don't think I am deciding that alone by myself, but I have every reason to believe I am the Liverpool manager next season," he said. "First of all, I am contracted to this club, and second of all, from all the talks we are having. That is my take on it.

"If you don't have the best season, especially if you compare with last season, if you compare it with other seasons, you might have a different debate, but if you compare it with last season, this has definitely not been a great season, then it is also normal that criticism comes. We have all had our share, and with all, I mean the players have had their share, the manager has had their share and other people in the club have had their share. That is how things work nowadays if you don't win the league."

Slot confirmed he had been involved in discussions with summer transfer targets with plenty more work to be done even after the half-a-billion-dollar splurge of the summer. Mohamed Salah and Andrew Robertson will need replacing as might Alisson, who is a target for Juventus. The Brazilian is a doubt for the trip to Villa Park through injury, but Florian Wirtz could shake off a stomach bug to feature while Ibrahima Konate and Mohamed Salah are available, the latter "for only a few minutes".

Though his job might be safe for the moment it would do Slot no favors to stagger into the Champions League through a relative backdoor. Liverpool finishing their season on a high and securing top four might have real value for their current manager. It's just it could well have altogether more for a few other teams just behind them in the Premier League table.

How to watch Aston Villa vs. Liverpool, odds

• Date: Friday, May 15 | Time: 3 p.m. ET
• Location: Villa Park -- Birmingham, United Kingdom
• TV: NBC SN
• **Odds:**Aston Villa +190; Draw +260; Liverpool +125