Aston Villa vs. Tottenham Hotspur Premier League Preview

Expecting little

The first three matches under Roberto De Zerbi have done little to suggest the attack will reach his desired levels of fluidity. With three goals scored and an average xG under 1.0, it is fair to question if Spurs are simply unable to score enough to avoid relegation, even if the defense is miraculously improved (which is obviously a fantasy in itself).

Theoretically, the Villa defense is exploitable, sitting right next to Spurs in xGA this season, despite allowing the sixth-fewest actual goals. Three of the past six league opponents have found the back of the net at least three times each, though the other three contests during that stretch featured a total of two goals conceded. Most recent battles between these sides have seen modest scoring, and that feels like a safe bet again.

Much of this comes from Tottenham’s ever-dwindling list of healthy attackers. With Dominic Solanke and Xavi Simons joining the crowded infirmary, good luck finding any sort of consistent attack. Richarlison, Mathys Tel, Lucas Bergvall, and Randal Kolo Muani are just about the only options, so there are going to be a ton of longballs that hopefully yield a lucky bounce in the final third.

Weekly Intangibles Update

To recap: Opta (an imperfect source, but at least a reasonable one), has West Ham at 40.2 points, with Leeds (45.7) and Forest (44.0) safe from the fray. The Hammers’ trip to the Gtech on Saturday is massive, especially since Spurs will know their standing ahead of the trip to Villa Park. While a draw (or loss) provides an opportunity to, at least temporarily, escape the drop zone, a West Ham win gives Spurs essentially no wiggle room.

Obviously, there is no result on Saturday that lowers the importance of Tottenham’s own fixture, but the gravity of seeing West Ham up five points does not sound great. Assuming equal results against Leeds, that would mean Spurs would need to win two of its other three matches in order to match the Hammers’ theoretical 42-point tally, and since one of those is against Chelsea, suddenly Villa is basically a must win.

Thankfully the home side will not be saying the same thing. Overcoming the 1-0 deficit to Forest in the Europa semis is the primary focus now with an eight-point cushion in the Champions League places, so perhaps Emery will mercifully deploy some rotation over the weekend. Wolves did not exactly roll over last Saturday, but hey, I would much rather face teams with nothing to play for than those still in the hunt. If talent is not enough to get Tottenham over the line, maybe desperation will be.