At Least They’re Not The Mets Is Phillies Fans Present Rallying Cry

Then there’s the Phils. As bad as the Mets have been, the Phils have been even worse by some measures. The Phillies’ run differential stands at -38, compared to the Mets’ -25. Everyday players Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott are lugging around SLUGGING PERCENTAGES in the .200 range. The scariest thing just might be that pretty much the rest of their nucleus is producing within range of expected levels. This ties into a chief fan complaint - that this team merely is what it is, and the front office has now gone multiple offseasons without making a key addition on the position player side.

This is a major difference between the Phils and other high-payroll clubs. Yes, they did go long in dollars and years to bring in the likes of Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, J.T. Realmuto and Zack Wheeler in their respective primes. They paid market value to keep homegrown ace Aaron Nola around. Their biggest add in recent years was from a larcenous minor league trade that brought in current ace Cristopher Sanchez in exchange for infielder Curtis Mead. The Dave Dombrowski-led front office should be lauded for all of these moves.

But I could have written that last paragraph a few years ago. The Dodgers do not let an offseason go by without improving their already stacked roster. And they tend to do it wisely. The next tier, which includes the Phils, Mets and Yankees, all have their flaws when it comes to talent acquisition. The Phils err on the side of being too slow to change.

Their biggest position player moves this winter? Locking up both Schwarber (five years, $150 million) and Realmuto (three years, $45 million) to deals that aren’t likely to end well. I’d argue that the former deal is the more dangerous of the two - Schwarber is a one-tool player (game power is an admittedly important one) now locked up at a $30 million AAV through his age 37 season. His always high strikeout rate is an astronomical 34.4% so far in 2026, though it is obscured by his more passable surface numbers.

Their other big position player add is rookie CF Justin Crawford, and he’s been quite good. As advertised, he has immediately added some juice on the bases and in the outfield, and his plate appearances have been solid. Problem is, this is basically his ceiling. There isn’t going to be any real power here. Long-term, he stabilizes the top of their order and is a bridge to a day when their lineup isn’t such an all-or-nothing proposition.

Their other best position player prospect, 3B Aidan Miller, would be in the mix for a near-term promotion - that is, if he was healthy. The rumblings have gotten worse about his current back ailment, and there is no clear return date projected. They probably shouldn’t count on him at all this season.

The Phils ride their regulars hard, and there isn’t much of a bench to speak of. They’re going to sink or swim with the current core. The demise of Harper has been greatly exaggerated (he’s fine), and while Turner can be frustratingly invisible at times, his numbers will eventually fall in line.

Then there’s the pitching side of the equation. Even at its best, the offense was good to very good - the pitching has been GREAT at times in recent years. Of course, that was with a healthy Wheeler, though Sanchez and Nola have also worn the ace hat at times. Their biggest pitching move this offseason was locking up Jesus Luzardo to a five-year, $135 million deal. While one again must give Phils’ brass credit for stealing the lefty from the Marlins, they may have jumped the gun in extending him.

When Luzardo is on, he’s brilliant. But his career arc has wildly swung from injured, to wildly effective, to maddeningly inconsistent. Even in his brilliant 2025 season, when he earned some Cy Young Award votes, he had a handful of beyond awful starts. He can be cruising along in dominant fashion one second, then totally loses his rhythm and gets bombed once he has to pitch from the stretch the next. His recent 2026 outings have followed that pattern. Love the talent, but committing early to big dollars and years is quite risky.

The Phils’ two big pitching issues at present are the back of the rotation and the bullpen beyond (now injured) closer Jhoan Duran. Nola’s been workmanlike and heralded rookie Andrew Painter has been fine but short of brilliant in support of Sanchez. Taijuan Walker, who gutted it out and gave the club competent innings last season, simply isn’t an MLB level starter anymore. The club needs to pull a Nick Castellanos and cut ties as soon as they have a ready replacement.

Could that replacement be Wheeler? He’s currently in Triple-A rehabbing from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, which is a pretty big deal. His results have been uneven to date, but he’s largely been trending in the right direction in terms of length, velocity and pitchability. To get where they want to go, the Phils need him to be what he has been for the last several years - arguably the game’s best starter. Getting back to that level, as he approaches his 36th birthday, might be too much to ask.

As for the bullpen, their second best reliever behind Duran clearly has been…..lefty Tim Mayza? They’ve begged 11 innings out of him already through Friday’s games, and the 34-year-old has never logged more than 53 IP in a season. This will not end well. Phils’ fans are not taking kindly to seeing recent pen castoffs like Gregory Soto and Jordan Romano have success elsewhere. With Duran out continued ineffectiveness could deal the club a death blow.

I am still more optimistic about the Phillies than I am the Mets. I see .500 as a floor for this bunch. I do believe this specific bunch of players’ best days are behind them, however, and their front office has not acted as if that were the case. The improvement is going to have to come from within. Their rough start has largely occurred at home, and they’re about to encounter a steady diet of road contests that will decide their mettle.

This article was originally published on Forbes.com