Atletico Madrid vs. Arsenal prediction: Champions League semifinal first leg best bets from proven expert

Here are Green's best bets and analysis for Atletico Madrid vs. Arsenal on Wednesday, April 29.

Atletico Madrid vs. Arsenal best bets

• Arsenal draw no bet -120 (1 unit)
• Under 2.5 Goals -140 (0.5 units)
• Draw at halfitme +110 (0.5 units)

Atlético Madrid will host Arsenal for the first leg of their Champions League semifinal clash at the Metropolitano on Wednesday.

Los Rojiblancos only finished 14th in the group stage with four wins, one draw and three defeats from eight games. They then beat Club Brugge 7-4 on aggregate in the playoff round before getting the better of Spurs in the Round of 16 and Barcelona in the quarterfinals. However, they now face an even more stern test of their mettle. Arsenal are unbeaten in this season's Champions League, so the players should be full of confidence when they head to the Spanish capital this week.

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How badly have Arsenal regressed since October?

Arsenal thrashed Atlético Madrid 4-0 when these teams met in the Champions League group stage on Oct. 21. Gabriel Magalhães opened the scoring by heading in from Declan Rice's free kick, and Gabriel Martinelli doubled Arsenal's advantage seven minutes later. Atléti created a couple of decent chances, but Viktor Gyökeres then scored twice to complete the rout. It was a dominant display from the Gunners, who outfought and outplayed their opponents in every department.

Arsenal ended up finishing top of the group, with eight wins from eight games. Mikel Arteta's men also secured impressive victories over strong teams like Bayern Munich and Inter Milan. Their reward was a Round of 16 clash with Bayer Leverkusen, which they won 3-1 on aggregate. They then beat Sporting Lisbon 1-0 on aggregate in the quarterfinals, so they've now reached the Champions League semifinals for the second consecutive season.

Last year, they lost to eventual champions PSG at this stage, but the Gunners are the favorites to get the better of Atléti this time around. They've scored 28 goals and conceded just five times in 12 Champions League games this season. Their record of 10 wins, two draws, and zero defeats is formidable. However, Arsenal have been wobbling pretty badly in recent weeks.

It all started with a 2-0 defeat to Man City in the EFL Cup final, when backup goalkeeper Kepa Arrizabalaga made some calamitous errors. He delivered another poor performance in Arsenal's 2-1 defeat to Southampton in the FA Cup quarterfinals. First-choice keeper David Raya has been restored to the team, but the Gunners have continued to struggle. They lost back-to-back league games to Bournemouth and Man City, but a 1-0 victory over Newcastle on Saturday left them three points clear of City at the top of the table, though they have played an extra game.

Arsenal will now shift their focus to the Champions League, and they'll rely on that solid defense to grind out another result on Wednesday.

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Atléti snap four-game losing streak

Atlético Madrid's form has also been abysmal in recent weeks. Los Rojiblancos slipped down to fourth in La Liga after losing four games in a row. They ended that run with a 3-2 victory over Athletic Club at the weekend, which could boost the players' morale. However, they've still lost seven of their last nine games in all competitions, which doesn't bode well.

Manager Diego Simeone has been rotating his players, but he sent out most of his big guns for that 3-2 win on Saturday. Star striker Julián Alvarez was on the bench and didn't feature, as he has a minor muscular injury. Midfielder Pablo Barrios will miss this game with an injury, while forward Ademola Lookman and defenders José Jiménez and David Hancko are also doubtful, so Atléti won't be at full strength.

Arsenal's squad is also pretty banged up. Goal scorer Eberechi Eze and striker Kai Havertz came off injured in the 1-0 win against Newcastle on Saturday. Eze could be available for this game, but Juriën Timber is out while Havertz and Riccardo Calafiori are doubtful. Martín Zubimendi is dealing with an illness but could recover in time for this game. Star winger Bukayo Saka has just returned from a lengthy layoff, so he could start on the bench.

The Gunners have lacked creativity in recent weeks, scoring just six goals in their last seven games. Their defense remains strong, and they should keep things tight in Madrid, so this could be a tense, low-scoring game. However, Arsenal will have a psychological advantage after crushing Atléti earlier in the season, so they could pick up a valuable win.

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