Bayern Munich – not Arsenal – just might be Champions League favorites after big win over Real Madrid

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Bayern Munich are nothing if not consistent, so consistent that in the midst of their run of 12 Bundesliga titles in 13 years and 17 consecutive appearances in the quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League, they slide under the radar. They are the perennial contender one often takes for granted but on Tuesday at the Bernabeu, Bayern failed to recede into the background. In the first test of title credentials since a 1-0 defeat at Arsenal in November, Vincent Kompany's side proved they were not only contenders but the new favorites to win the Champions League, outdoing Real Madrid in a 2-1 victory in the first leg of the quarterfinals.

It came as little surprise that Bayern were the aggressor in the game, especially as a flawed version of Madrid chose to take their chances on the counter and place faith in the star-studded players on the pitch. The visitors, though, really took the game to the hosts – they pinned them in for the opening 15 minutes of the match, limiting Los Blancos to zero shots while they racked up four and generated 1.03 expected goals in the process. Bayern had implemented a high-intensity pressing style that they have perfected over the course of the season, going full throttle as often as they can. Patience was required but Bayern's unflinching approach feels tried and true at this point, Kompany's side reaping the reward of their hard work shortly before the break.

Their persistence was on full display as Michael Olise intercepted Vinicius Junior's pass, as strong a signal as any that Bayern's impactful attackers should be off to the races. In the span of 10 seconds, Olise connected with Joshua Kimmich before receiving the ball again and leaving it in the control of Serge Gnabry. Three bodies surrounded him as he played a well-placed pass to Harry Kane in front of him, Madrid attempting to close down the space around the England captain while leaving Gnabry free to roam from Kane's right to his left. Kane sent the ball Gnabry's way, who then spotted Luis Diaz in front of him as he came up with a simple finish from close range.

Bayern Munich LEAD at the Bernabéu ⚽️

Luis Díaz finishes off a brilliant team move with a cool finish 🥶 pic.twitter.com/rUenAnVh6S

— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) April 7, 2026

If that play was not brutal enough, Madrid were caught in Bayern's intense wave moments after the whistle blew to open the second half. Vinicius' pass over the top was meant for Alvaro Carreras but he needed a beat to gain control of the ball. Against Kompany's Bayern, though, opponents are not afforded the space to breathe – Aleksandar Pavlovic inserted himself into the crevice of space between Carreras and the ball and in no time, the ball was at Olise's feet. The France international made a run, two Madrid defenders attempting to close the space between him and the goal. It was no matter – he was wise enough to spot Kane behind him and the talisman put enough power behind the ball to make sure it flew into the back of the net, Bayern's relentlessness on full display.

HARRY KANE STUNNER! 🤯

His first-ever goal at the Santiago Bernabéu doubles Bayern Munich’s lead🔥 pic.twitter.com/5Q2Aom3plF

— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) April 7, 2026

The great trade-off of Bayern's style is the high line that comes with it, Madrid boasting the type of players that can exploit that space and the opportunities afforded by sloppy play from center back Dayot Upamecano. They benefitted from the return of Trent Alexander-Arnold, who led his team with 52 passes and reminded of his elite talents as a goal-creating right wingback with an excellent pass to Kylian Mbappe for Madrid's lone goal of the game in the 74th minute. Los Blancos have the quality to match Bayern's 20 shots and to take 37 touches in the opposition box, equally capable of creating a back-and-forth game that lived up to the billing of a match between two of Europe's most accomplished sides.

Real Madrid are back in the tie 👊

Kylian Mbappé with a fine finish from an incredible assist by Trent Alexander-Arnold ⚪️ pic.twitter.com/9wFJWh4XVk

— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) April 7, 2026

And yet, Bayern were not just going toe-to-toe with Madrid. They outdid them in just about every regard, even those Madrid do well. The two finished level on shots but Bayern generated 2.99 expected goals along the way. Los Blancos nearly hit 40 touches in Bayern's box but Bayern had 45 of their own in Madrid's, a jaw-dropping figure if there ever was one. Every decision felt like a favorable one for Bayern, even the risky ones – Manuel Neuer may be weeks removed from his 40th birthday but the World Cup winner was in fine form with nine saves, his otherworldly efforts offering a stark reminder that Madrid counterpart Andriy Lunin was merely the understudy to the injured Thibaut Courtois.

Bayern's style of play is a tactical riddle that is hard to solve, in large part because it lacks restraint. Arsenal have cake-walked to their status as the oddsmakers' choice to win the Champions League because they have perfected the art of assuming full control of a match by wearing the opposition down through precision and efficiency rather than exuberance. Effective as it may be, Bayern are now the Gunners' dramatic foils – Arsenal are pragmatic to a fault, dragging themselves through a 1-0 game at Sporting Lisbon in which they were outshot 11 to seven and outdone 0.83 to 0.78 on expected goals, Kai Havertz's stoppage time goal saving the day.

Bayern have their flaws, too, but they offer an entirely separate case study in result-oriented soccer, one that offers a stark reminder that playing on the front foot has its benefits. It is a bet that defaulting to players' individual tendencies and affording them freedom will pay off, a bet that Real Madrid has tried to take for years without the foundation of a tactically balanced roster to back it up. Whether or not Bayern will come away with a seventh Champions League title in the process is to be determined but after Tuesday's showing in Madrid, Kompany – who won four Premier League titles with a Manchester City team that entertained constantly – has made as compelling an argument as any that the strategy just might work.

"I think the team has, in the end, earned the right to play the way they do," Kompany said in a post-match interview on the UEFA Champions League Today post-match show. "They've done it in Paris, they've done it here. They've earned the right to be that team and I remember when I was lucky to be a part of some very good teams. The biggest thing you want to have in these types of games is that you can still be yourselves and then after that, with the talent on the pitch, it's margins but we can make those margins fall in our favor."