Better Man: Mariners vs. Padres Series Preview

Probable Pitchers

**Updated Stuff+ Explainer**

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

  

  | Pitcher | IP | K% | BB% | HR/FB% | GB% | ERA | FIP | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Randy Vásquez | 44.1 | 23.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 41.0% | 3.05 | 3.41 | | Emerson Hancock | 47.2 | 27.0% | 4.9% | 15.7% | 45.2% | 3.21 | 3.90 | | Pitch | Usage vRHB | Usage vLHB | Velocity | Stuff+ | Whiff+ | BIP+ | xwOBA | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Four-seam | 32.1% | 32.0% | 94.8 | 106 | 113 | 114 | 0.324 | | Sinker | 18.3% | 9.0% | 94.5 | 88 | | | | | Cutter | 33.1% | 21.5% | 89.9 | 99 | 100 | 95 | 0.345 | | Changeup | 0.3% | 16.1% | 88.2 | 85 | | | | | Curveball | 5.9% | 19.5% | 84.2 | 97 | 73 | 102 | 0.356 | | Slider | 10.3% | 2.0% | 86.2 | 105 | | | | | Sweeper | 6.2% | 1.2% | 84.2 | 105 | | | | From a previous series preview: *Randy Vásquez has spent the last few seasons as a reliable, innings-eating back-end starter for the Padres. Between 2023 and ‘24, he had the lowest strikeout rate among all qualified starters, though his ERA was a decent 4.27.* *All of a sudden**, he’s throwing two ticks harder this year and he’s more than doubled his strikeout rate. The extra oomph on his pitches is obviously great, but it’s particularly helpful for Vásquez because of his seven-pitch repertoire. Discerning which of those seven pitches is heading towards the plate is a lot easier when you only have to worry about a 93 mph fastball rather than 95 mph heat. With the threat of a true, bat-missing heater in his back pocket, his entire arsenal becomes more effective because he has so many looks he can present to the batter.* | Pitcher | IP | K% | BB% | HR/FB% | GB% | ERA | FIP | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Lucas Giolito (2025) | 145 | 19.7% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 37.8% | 3.41 | 4.17 | | Logan Gilbert | 50 | 25.5% | 4.9% | 14.3% | 37.7% | 3.78 | 3.90 | | Pitch | Usage vRHB | Usage vLHB | Velocity | Stuff+ | Whiff+ | BIP+ | xwOBA | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Four-seam | 44.7% | 52.1% | 93.3 | 82 | 73 | 109 | 0.387 | | Changeup | 18.3% | 26.9% | 81.7 | 107 | 86 | 138 | 0.299 | | Curveball | 1.2% | 5.8% | 78.6 | 106 | | | | | Slider | 35.8% | 15.1% | 86.0 | 96 | 97 | 111 | 0.310 | With injuries ravaging their starting rotation, the Padres signed Lucas Giolito a few weeks ago with the hope that he’d be able to ramp up pretty quickly to provide some relief for the pitching staff. After four minor league starts, he’s ready to go and San Diego will be activating him for his season debut on Saturday. Giolito was a solid mid-rotation starter for Boston last year in a return to form after a few miserable years marred by injury and ineffectiveness. It wasn’t too long ago that he was the ace of the White Sox rotation, though that ceiling is probably past him. His best pitches are a tight slider and a straight changeup. Both of those secondary offerings play off his fastball to earn their deception which means the deterioration of his heater has some outsized knock-on effects on the rest of his repertoire. | Pitcher | IP | K% | BB% | HR/FB% | GB% | ERA | FIP | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | George Kirby | 57 | 20.3% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 57.0% | 2.84 | 3.26 | | Walker Buehler | 36.1 | 19.6% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 46.9% | 5.20 | 3.64 | | Pitch | Usage vRHB | Usage vLHB | Velocity | Stuff+ | Whiff+ | BIP+ | xwOBA | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Four-seam | 22.7% | 17.3% | 93.9 | 90 | 33 | 127 | 0.340 | | Sinker | 24.3% | 8.7% | 93.8 | 94 | | | | | Cutter | 16.3% | 33.7% | 89.9 | 92 | 60 | 86 | 0.379 | | Changeup | 1.2% | 17.6% | 88.9 | 82 | | | | | Curveball | 12.7% | 20.0% | 77.3 | 108 | 113 | 61 | 0.389 | | Slider | 22.7% | 2.7% | 86.7 | 99 | | | | | Sweeper | 16.3% | 2.1% | 82.7 | 99 | | | | From a previous series preview: *I can only assume that Walker Buehler’s 2019 and ‘21 seasons are doing a lot of heavy lifting for his reputation as he’s bounced between three different teams over the last two seasons. He put up 5.1 and 5.6 fWAR in those two campaigns but underwent Tommy John surgery in 2022. He hasn’t been the same since and he was legitimately one of the worst pitchers in baseball last year. His four-seam fastball was one of the best in baseball at his peak but it’s lost a ton of its carry and just isn’t an effective pitch anymore. He’s tried to adjust by deepening his repertoire and mixing in all of his secondary pitches a lot more often. It didn’t work in Boston last year, but the Padres desperately needed starting pitchers this spring, so they’re giving Buehler another shot to see if he can figure things out.*

The Big Picture: