Betting the 2026 Kentucky Derby: Chief Wallabee’s recent form could hold the key

With fields as big as 20 horses, the Kentucky Derby is generally regarded as the biggest handicapping puzzle in North American racing. Handicappers tend to agonize over this race, and with good reason. No horse is guaranteed a good trip, and the unexpected can and will happen.

The uncertainty of the race can lead bettors to go to extremes, which is rarely a good approach. For example, you can “spread” your bets, including too many horses on your tickets. This approach doesn’t guarantee a winner, and the amount of money you invest can cut down on potential profits. In 2019 I was asked by a media outlet how I would recommend betting the race with a bankroll of $100. Wiseguy that I am, I suggested a $1 denomination 10-horse exacta box, with the ticket costing $90. The last horse I eliminated from that bet was Country House, who(because of the disqualification of Maximum Security for interference) was put up for the win at odds of 65-1, triggering a $1500 exacta.Oh, well…

In 2000, I went in the opposite direction. I made one bet on the race, and it only cost $42. It was a year when the favorite was clearly the best horse. His name was Fusaichi Pegasus, and he won his final prep race, the Wood Memorial, in dominant fashion. In that same race, there was an improving colt named Aptitude who closed with a rush to be third. So, I decided on a high-risk $1 superfecta ticket. It placed Fusaichi Pegasus as a “single” in the win position, with Aptitude as a “single” in the place position. Beneath them, I boxed seven horses in the third and fourth spots. So many things could’ve gone wrong to prevent my top two choices from finishing 1-2, yet they did finish in that order, with two of my seven “underneath” horses taking the third and fourth spots. My return was a whopping $1635!

It was a low percentage gamble that paid off, but in a 20-horse field, too much can happen to call this a wise strategy. The best strategy is probably somewhere in between.

If the name of the game is handicapping, we should try to determine the best horse, whether it is in a 6-horse field or a 20-horse field. Assuming that we are trying to make a score with multi-horse wagers (exacta, trifecta, or superfecta), we face the task of eliminating several horses from our tickets. In a field this big, some are easy to eliminate and some present agonizing decisions.

2026 Kentucky Derby Full field, odds, analysis of each horse and predictions

Every Kentucky Derby presents a different puzzle, depending on who is in the race. This year there are several highly regarded horses, but if I have to choose one who has several factors in his favor it would be the Bill Mott-trained Chief Wallabee. If Mott and jockey Junior Alvarado should repeat their win from last year with Sovereignty, they would become the first jockey/trainer to win in consecutive years since trainer Lucien Laurin and jockey Ron Turcotte in 1972 and 1973. They were helped by a couple of nice horses named Riva Ridge and Secretariat.

Why have I landed on Chief Wallabee, who is 8-1 on the morning line?Let me begin by saying I loved his prep race in the Florida Derby. This was an example of a horse who could never get comfortable in the race. Despite having to race between horses and then being trapped on the rail for much of the trip, he still finished third, losing by only a half-length to Commandment and The Puma. To say that they had a better trip than Chief Wallabee would be an understatement. The Florida Derby was only the third race of Chief Wallabee’s career, and he’s been impressive each time. With a stalking style, he should benefit from the 12 post, which should allow him to be placed well in the race.

Finally, there is the factor of how these horses do between their final prep race and the Derby.In the Chief’s case, he produced a workout the Daily Racing Form has referred to as a “monster workout”. In all the years I’ve been reading the Form, I’ve never seen them use that term in a headline. He seems to be improving as he heads to the biggest race of his life. In addition, Mott is adding blinkers for this race, probably to keep him focused and not distracted by other horses in the big field.

If Chief Wallabee is the key horse to my wagers, who else will be included? Here’s that list, with a brief explanation of why they made the cut:

#1 RENEGADE
He had an impressive win in the Arkansas Derby against a relatively soft field.The rail post is never easy in a field this big.

#6 COMMANDMENT
Any time a horse trained by Brad Cox has won four straight at this level, he deserves to be on your tickets. The Florida Derby was probably the strongest prep race this year. Commandment won with a much cleaner trip than the Chief, who was a half-length behind.

#9 THE PUMA
He’s gotten better with each start around two turns, and his loss by a nose to Commandment in the Florida Derby was impressive.I can see him hitting the board, but not having the brilliance that is necessary to win.

#14 POTENTE
A $2.4 million purchase trained by Bob Baffert should not be ignored on Derby Day. He’s talented, but against suspect competition in California’s prep races he should’ve been better.

#15 EMERGING MARKET
One of two longshots that I like. This Chad Brown trainee won both his career starts, and his Louisiana Derby win was very impressive. Asked to go 1 3/16 miles he was tough the whole way around, getting the nod over a determined Pavlovian. He should have no problem with the mile and a quarter of the Derby.

#18 FURTHER ADO
The Blue Grass Stakes had a weak field this year and this horse ran away with it by 11 lengths. He’s another Brad Cox trainee, which works in his favor. I just question what he will do if he’s challenged in a bigger and stronger field.

#19 GOLDEN TEMPO
My other longshot. He lost by only a length in the Louisiana Derby and his outside post shouldn’t be a problem with his late-closing style. Trainer Cherie DeVaux has been on the rise, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see this one pull an upset.

In summation, I see Chief Wallabee as my top pick with Renegade, Commandment, The Puma, Potente, Emerging Market, Further Ado and Golden Tempo on my tickets.

Handicapping the Kentucky Derby is primarily a process of elimination. If a horse you didn’t have on your ticket pulls a surprise at a big price, it might not be your fault. You may have just been victimized by the challenge of trying to pick a winner in America’s most complex and fascinating horse race. Take your shot, and as the late, great Harvey Pack used to say, “May The Horse Be With You”.